DCB Bank Ltd. share price target

Our estimates remain largely unchanged, even after DCBB's soft performance over 3QFY20. We model a considerable improvement in credit growth and operating efficiency beyond FY20E. These reflect our confidence in the bank's calibrated approach to growth. We expect oplev to be the biggest driver of return ratio improvement. DCBB stands to gain from an uptick in economic activity and a sustained downturn will pose a significant risk to our estimates. DCBB reported an in-line qtr and overall performance was lackluster (asset quality deterioration and slowing growth). Better cost control and a slight margin uptick were positives. MAINTAIN BUY with a TP of Rs 249.

Background: DCB Bank Limited (formerly Development Credit Bank Limited) has a deposit base of INR 297bn and advances of INR 254bn at the end of 3QFY20, making it the smallest bank in the listed private sector space, including both new and old generation private sector banks. Promoter group the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED) & Platinum Jubilee Investments holds ~15% stake. DCB services entail Corporate Banking - 12%, SME -11%, Agriculture 21%,...

DCB Bank's net advances growth moderated further to 11% vs 12% sequentially. NII grew by 10% YoY while PAT grew by 12% YoY led by lower tax rate (26% vs 35% YoY). Loan growth ex-corporate segment is ~15% (16% in Q2FY20) vs. overall growth of 11%. Cost-toincome ratio on a QoQ basis has declined by 85bps on account of stable Opex sequentially. Fresh slippages continue to remain high at 2.01bn up 25% QoQ led by Corporate and CV...

25 January 2020 DCBB reported in-line 3QFY20 operating performance, while higher provisions dragged earnings growth (5% miss), led by greater stress in a few business segments. Loan growth moderated further on continued sluggishness in the corporate banking portfolio. Maintain DCBB reported PAT of INR967m (5% miss), impacted by lower treasury gains and higher provisions (36% QoQ increase). NII growth slowed to 10% YoY to INR3.2b (in-line) due to moderation in loan growth (11% YoY) while margins improved 4bp QoQ to 3.71%, aided by reduction in cost of deposits. Other income declined 1.5% YoY (8% QoQ decline), mainly led by muted treasury gains of INR70m (72% QoQ decline), while core fee growth was also subdued at 5% YoY. Loan growth moderated further to 11% YoY, primarily led by continued sluggishness in the corporate banking portfolio; it now forms 12% of the book (v/s 15% in 3QFY19).

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Sector: Banking /Mid-Cap | Earnings Update 2QFY20 Background: DCB Bank Limited (formerly Development Credit Bank Limited) has a deposit base of INR 293bn and advances of INR 248bn at the end of 2QFY20, making it the smallest bank in the listed private sector space, including both new and old generation private sector banks. Promoter group the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED) & Platinum Jubilee Investments holds ~15% stake. DCB services entail Corporate Banking - 12%, SME -12%, Agriculture 20%, Mortgages 41%....

DCB Bank's net advances growth moderated further to 12% vs 13% sequentially. NII grew by 11% YoY while PAT grew by 24% YoY led by higher other income (up 38% YoY). Loan growth ex-corporate segment is ~16% (19% in Q1FY20) vs. overall growth of 12%. Cost-to-income ratio on a QoQ basis has declined by 195bps on account of stable Opex sequentially. Fresh slippages continue to remain high at 1.6bn up 10% QoQ led by Mortgages/SME and CV portfolio. We maintain ACCUMULATE rating with a new TP of...

NII came in line with our estimates at ~| 313 crore, up ~11% YoY, on the back of lower credit growth & steady margin sequentially. Other income growth came in higher than our expectation at ~38% YoY to ~| 101 crore led by multifold growth in trading income & steady growth of 6% QoQ in CEB book, which was at ~| 58 crore in Q2FY20 (~| 55 crore in Q2FY20). Accordingly, operating profit was at | 185 crore, up 26% YoY. Provision continued to remain elevated at | 43 crore, up 36% YoY. The bank also revalued deferred tax asset during the quarter leading to additional...

A Weak Quarter; Performance Likely to Improve in 2HFY20 DCB Bank has delivered a weak performance in 2QFY20 led by elevated annualised slippages of 2.7% along with continued pressure on NIM (-25bps YoY) and weak loan growth (+12% YoY). PAT grew by 13% YoY (marginally ahead of our estimate), largely aided by higher treasury gains. Gross NPAs increased by 13bps QoQ and 25bps YoY, with rise in segmental NPAs across CV, MSME, mortgage and gold portfolio. CASA grew by a muted 7% YoY, though growth in retail deposits stood at healthy 26% YoY. The Management's endeavor to further granularise its deposit profile should aid the Bank's NIM over the longer-term. We believe unless the advances...

Yet again, we are compelled to reduce our estimates for DCBB over FY20-22E, as we build slower loan growth and higher slippages. These do not worry us and we like DCBB's relatively conservative approach. Sustainability of oplev improvement seen this qtr (key for RoAA expansion) and the NIM impact of linking of fresh retail loans to external benchmarks, will be watched for. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 243 (2 X Sep-21E ABV of Rs 122), especially given the recent correction. DCBBs 2QFY20 disappointed with broad-based asset quality deterioration while sustained cost control and stable margins were silver linings. MAINTAIN BUY with a TP of Rs 243.