Dabur India Ltd. share price target

Dabur India is one of the leading Indian consumer goods company with presence across Hair Care, Oral Care, Health Care, Skin Care, Home Care and Foods. It is the world's largest Ayurvedic and Natural Health Care Company with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal and Ayurvedic products. Dabur's positioning on the health and wellness' platform, backed by its ayurvedic, natural and herbal has created a niche for its product offerings. Its portfolio includes 5 flagship brands - Dabur as the master brand for natural healthcare products, Vatika for premium personal care, Hajmola for digestives, Real for fruit juices & beverages and Fem for fairness bleaches & skin care products. It has a wide distribution network,...

Q2FY18 in line: Comparable (LTL) consolidated net sales grew 3% YoY, in line with consensus expectations. India FMCG sales grew 10% YoY with 7.2% volume growth. International (28% of sales) sales declined 12% YoY (up 4% in CC) due to currency and macro-economic headwinds.

We value Dabur based on P/E of 35x (earlier 33x) Sep-19EPS, and arrive at a TP of Rs 380. We maintain BUY. DABURs consolidated net revenue on a like-to-like basis increased by 8% to Rs19.6bn. Domestic business (70% of total) clocked 10.7% growth, better than expectation of 8.5%. International revenues remained under pressure, and declined by 11%. EBITDA and APAT grew by 3 and 2% YoY, in-line.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Dabur reported a strong operating performance for the quarter. Consolidated revenue for the quarter was flattish at | 1,958.9 crore, marginally lower than our estimate of | 2043.4 crore. However, on a comparable basis, considering the currency translation and GST accounting, revenues of the company grew 8% YoY. Comparable standalone revenue grew 10.7%, led by 7.2% volume growth. However, the international performance was subdued due to...

Domestic Business Shines albeit on a Lower Base Benefiting from lower base effect and pipeline refilling post GST roll-out, Dabur India's 2QFY18 numbers marginally exceeded our estimates. While consolidated net sales came in at Rs19.6bn vs. our estimate of Rs19.4bn, its net profit grew by 1.3% YoY to Rs3.6bn vs. our estimate of Rs3.5bn. Underlying consolidated revenue growth in constant currency terms stood at a healthy...

Rural momentum building up remarkably; market share issues getting addressed Dabur's 2QFY18 consolidated sales declined 1.1% YoY to INR19.6b (est. of +2.5%). EBITDA grew 2.7% YoY to INR 4.2b (est. of +5.5%). Adj. PAT increased 1.3% YoY to INR3.6b (est. of +6.7%). Domestic FMCG business sales grew 10.7% YoY, led by volume growth of 7.2% (est. of +10%). Oral care, foods, hair oil and health supplements reported GSTadjusted growth of 22.8%, 11.7%, 2.3% and 3%, respectively. International sales grew 3.9% in constant currency (CC) terms. Consol. EBITDA margin expanded 80bp YoY to 21.4% (est. of 21.0%). Gross...

While keenly waiting for demand recovery as GST pressures abate, Dabur India is aggressively looking to ride the ayurveda wave. Tie-up with Amazon will expand its global footprint while Ask Dabur (ayurvedic treatment through telemedicine) will help fight competition

We expect DABUR to show 17% EPS CAGR over FY17-20E. DABUR commands a high operating margin of >19%, along with RoCE of >45%. We have a BUY rating, with a TP of Rs 352, based on 33x Sep-19EPS. We interacted with the management of DABUR, and discussed points like (1) GST implementation update, (2) Progress in channel restocking, (3) Consumer off-takes and (4) International business.

Q1FY18 in line: Consolidated net sales, EBITDA and Adj PAT declined 8%, 11% and 5%. India FMCG sales declined 5% YoY with 4.4% volume decline. International (31% of sales) sales declined 15% YoY (down -2.2% in CC) due to currency and macro-economic headwinds.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research The company reported 8.1% YoY decline in consolidated net sales to | 1790.1 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1834.9 crore) mainly due to 4.4% dip in volumes. The standalone business witnessed a 5% decline in sales for the quarter mainly due to the de-stocking by the wholesale network. Similarly, the International business witnessed 14.5% YoY decline largely on account of an economic slowdown in MENA region and currency devaluation in Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey...