Dabur India Ltd. share price target

19 July 2019 to INR22.7b (v/s est. EBITDA grew 18.5% YoY to INR4.6b (v/s est. Adj. PAT increased 14.2% YoY to INR3.8b (v/s est. The domestic FMCG business grew 10.

Defying current slowdown in consumer demand, Dabur India came out with good set of numbers, beating our estimate on all fronts. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q1FY20 grew 9.3% YoY to Rs 2273 cr, above our estimate of Rs 2170 cr. Consolidated EBITDA jumped 18.5% YoY to Rs 458 cr beating our estimate of Rs 401 cr, while EBITDA margin expanded +157bps YoY to 20.1% against our estimate of 18.5%. PAT for the quarter witnessed a decent growth of 10.3% YoY to Rs 363 cr above our estimate of Rs 340 cr. Despite subdued consumer sentiment, domestic business of...

Dabur is enjoying a renewed consumer fad in naturals' across its portfolio with limited competitive intensity. Dabur's success in FY20-21E will depend on how the co. capitalizes on this opportunity based on (a) Success of new launches, (b) Scaling power brands, (c) Marketing strategy (d) Deeper distribution (rural markets) and (e) Recovery in rural demand. Post the recent correction in the stock, we believe the ask rate is not demanding. New CEO on board would lead to a rejig in the co's strategy and may result in short term pain for long term gain. We advise investors to look at the stock from a medium-long term perspective. Dabur reported a weak show in 4QFY19, as the performance was marred by seasonality impact and slowdown in rural offtake (unlike previous elections). We cut our EPS by 4% for FY20-21E owing to a delay in rural acceleration and weakness in international biz. We believe the govt. will focus on reviving rural consumption, making Dabur the best play (particularly after the recent stock correction). Our TP is at Rs 464 based on 38x FY21E EPS.

Rural slowdown dents earnings; international remains subdued The rural market constitutes 45% of the company's sales vs. ~35% for the industry. Domestic FMCG sales growth moderated to 6% due to rural slowdown, liquidity crunch and prolonged winter, which impacted hair care and foods segments. The international business growth also remained muted (1% constant currency growth) due to continued weakness in MENA region and adverse currency in Turkey, Nigeria and Pakistan. We believe steady focus on expanding direct reach in rural areas would augment the...

Dabur India came out with stable set of numbers, which were mostly in line with our estimate. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q4FY19 grew 4.7% YoY to Rs 2128 cr, slightly below our estimate of Rs 2229 cr, while EBITDA came at Rs 457 cr exactly in line with our estimate of Rs 456 cr. EBITDA margins came in at 21.5% which was impacted by higher staff costs (+34% YoY). PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 370 cr against our estimate of Rs 404 cr(-6.5% YoY) mainly on account of Rs 75 cr of exceptional loss on account of impairment of goodwill in one of its wholly owned subsidiary M/s Hobi...

2 May 2019 Sales, EBITDA and adj. DABUR is targeting high-single-digit volume growth in India FMCG in FY20, with 2-3% realization growth. We cut our FY20/21 EPS forecast by ~3%/4% to factor in the companys weaker-than-expected performance. Despite this, FY19 turned out to be the third successive year of single-digit EPS growth and the fifth consecutive year of less than 12% sales growth. The company continues facing challenges in the form of a large and underperforming international business (~30% of sales) and an unwieldy domestic portfolio of brands, many of which are yet to demonstrate sustainably strong growth. Valuations are not cheap at 41.6x FY20, particularly for a business with moderate earnings growth prospects and lower-than-peers RoCEs of mid-20s. At the same time, we do acknowledge that earnings could come in better than expected if rural growth surprises positively and the new CEO further sharpens the focus on growth.

Healthy volume growth and stable margins to benefit in the coming years - Initiate with Accumulate rating with Target Price of Rs 491 Dabur India Ltd. (Dabur) is the fourth largest FMCG Company of the country presently catering to health care, personal care & food segment. The company is expected to report 10.9% CAGR growth in revenue over FY18-21E while PAT will witness a CAGR of 12.5% over the same period. We are positive on the future prospects of Dabur and initiate coverage with an...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Domestic business grew 14.8% mainly driven by 12.4% volume growth during the quarter. International business reported growth of 1% in constant currency terms impacted by underperformance of MENA markets and adverse currency movement Consumer care segment and foods segment increased 12.7% YoY and 7.6% YoY, respectively. Consumer care segment growth was led by hair oil growth of 23.6%, shampoo category growth of 25.2%,...

We increase our EPS estimate of FY20 and FY21 by 1.8% and 3.3% respectively given optimistic domestic demand outlook backed by 1) 12.4% domestic volume growth on a high base (13% in 3QFY18) and continued momentum in January sales as well 2) expected pick up in rural sales post consumption led interim budget and 3) softening input costs pressures and...