ACC Ltd. share price target

We roll over our estimate to FY26 and maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Our earnings forecast for ACC appears largely immune to the current weakness (and uncertain outlook) on cement prices.

ACC’s Q4FY24 EBITDA grew 79% YoY (down 8% QoQ) to Rs8.4bn, which was
~4% higher than our estimate. On a sequential basis, EBITDA/t declined by
Rs215 to Rs802 (Emkay: Rs820), mainly on account of weak blended
realizations that fell by Rs341/t in Q4FY24.

ACC’s 4QFY24 EBITDA grew ~80% YoY to INR8.4b (+3% vs. our estimate). Its
EBITDA/t grew 45% YoY to INR802 (-6% vs. estimate), due to lower-thanestimated realization. Realization was down ~9%/7% YoY/QoQ to INR5,171
(-4% vs. estimate). OPM was up 5.8pp YoY to 15.5% (est. ~16%). Adj. PAT
stood at INR4.9b (+72% YoY; 4% above our estimates).

GCPL: Consistent volume growth; cut to HOLD post rally. JSP: Valuations overdone; downgrade to HOLD. ACC: Strong margins; cut to HOLD on full valuations. Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review. Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review. VGRD: In-line quarter. ORIENTEL: Slow quarter; Hyderabad plant to spur growth. SOMC: Lacklustre demand dulls performance. MTLM: Strong performance on fast ramp-up of MDF plant. SRCM: Healthy quarter, expensive valuations

Q3 revenue growth of 8% YoY bolstered by 16% uptick in volumes while realisations moderated 5%