Bajaj Auto Ltd. share price target

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q4FY21 result was above our and consensus estimates at revenue and lower at EBITDA level due to higher operating cost. We expect domestic 2W/3W industry to see a double digit growth for FY22 on a low base despite 2nd wave of covid; as vaccination drive will help in bringing normalcy. We anticipate stronger recovery in export market for 2W/3W segment would help TVSL to partially mitigate any slowdown in domestic market in near term. We build our volume growth estimates for FY22/FY23 by 20%/12% respectively factoring the strong recovery in 2W/3W domestic and export market. We change our rating to HOLD (earlier REDUCE) and arrive at a TP of Rs3,730...

Exports to dilute impact of near term weakness in the domestic market Bajaj Auto's (BJAUT) 4QFY21 performance was supported by favorable mix and price hikes, which helped in diluting commodity inflation. It has both near (3W recovery) and long term (premiumization and exports) levers,...

BJAUT's 4QFY21 results were in-line across parameters. Despite gross margins contracted 340bp YoY/ 110bp QoQ, better product mix and cost control partially offset RM dent. While we acknowledge launch of Pulsar helping BJAUT gain market share in 125cc segment, its overall market share in domestic motorcycle segment still declined ~50bp to 18.1% in FY21....

Bajaj Auto's topline expanded by 27.3% yoy, in a quarter which remained buoyant even after the end of festive season. Sequentially the top line declined by just 3.4%, while it expanded by 27.3% yoy. Volumes in the quarter moved up by 17.9% yoy after falling by 64% yoy in Q1 and 10% in Q2...

Bajaj Auto's Q4FY21 revenue was ahead of estimates at Rs 86bn.

Bajaj Auto is the world's sixth-largest manufacturer of motorcycles and the second-largest in India. It is also the world's largest three-wheeler manufacturer. Bajaj Auto is a part of the Bajaj Group. The company is based in Pune, Mumbai with plants in Chakan (Pune), Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar in Uttarakhand. Bajaj Auto is India's largest exporter of...

Short term margin blip on anvil, directional intent to inch ~19% The company's performance surprised us positively on the gross margins front (we had estimated ~250 bps deterioration). The company has guided for ~300 bps sequential decline in gross margins in Q4FY21E given the sharp increases in prices of input materials (base metals). BAL's price hikes to counteract cost pressures are slated to be spread out and gradual in nature. Longer term margin commentary is positive, however, with sustainable levels seen closer to stellar reading seen in Q3FY21 (~19.5%)....

We retain BUY rating with revised TP of Rs. 4,150 (Rs. 3,500 earlier) (which includes Rs 150/share for companys stake in KTM) as we value the stock at 17x (16x earlier) its FY23E EPS.

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q3FY21 result was above our and consensus estimates at EBITDA and Adj. PAT level due to lower RM/ operating cost and higher other income. We believe as restoring life back to normalcy and business as usual; with gradual opening up of educational institutes/colleges, organic demand for 2-wheelers should progressively start coming back. We expect domestic 2W/3W industry to see a double growth for FY22 on a low base. We anticipate stronger recovery in export market for 2W/3W segment would help BJAUT to partially mitigate any slowdown in domestic market in near term. We build our volume growth estimates for FY21/FY22/FY23 by...