Tata Power Company Ltd. share price target

Tata Power's (TPWR) 2QFY18 adj. consolidated PAT grew 14% YoY to INR3.8b (est. INR3.6b). The PAT is adjusted for exceptional charge of INR1.5b pertaining to Tata Teleservices and impairment of Rithala plant. The growth was driven by net benefit (Mundra & Coal) of higher coal prices, RE and higher generation at Maithon. Mundra+Coal: The under-recovery at Mundra was down from INR0.93/kWh in 1Q to INR0.70/kWh on higher availability (85% vs. 61% in 1Q) and savings in fuel coal. FoB cost of coal was unchanged QoQ (at USD59/t). Coal mining JVs PAT was up ~19% QoQ (6.5x YoY) to INR3.3b on higher coal prices. Mundra...

Tata Power Company (TPCL) has posted an improved performance in 1QFY18 with its consolidated net profit rising by 126% YoY to Rs1.64bn (vs. Rs0.72bn in 1QFY17) due to strong performance by the coal subsidiaries, renewable business and better operational performance. Notably, renewable business generated Rs1.09bn PAT in 1QFY18 compared to Rs0.26bn in 1QFY17. Consolidated revenue rose by 2% YoY to Rs67.2bn mainly due to improved revenue from Welspun Renewable Energy (WREPL). Though tariff issue at Mundra UMPP and operational issues in Mumbai Licence area have been impacting TPCL's stock performance over last 3-4 years, we believe that these issues have already been factored in the share price. Hence, we...

Q1FY18 PAT at Rs 1.6 bn (vs. estimate of Rs 3 bn) was dented by higher losses at Mundra UMPP due to surge in imported coal price (EBITDA loss of Rs 0.77 bn vs. positive Rs 2.2 bn YoY)

Revenue decreased by 2.77% to Rs. 6968.62 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter Revenue decreased by 2.77% to Rs. 6968.62 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter

Q4 adjusted PAT at Rs1.9 bn(vs. estimate of Rs 7.6 bn) was dented by higher fuel under-recovery at Mundra due to surge in imported coal price (EBITDA of Rs 0.24 bn vs. Rs 3.9 bnYoY)

Revenue grew by 7.23% to Rs. 7166.79 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Revenue decreased by 4.02% to Rs. 1277.4 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it decreased by 27.79% when compared with Q3FY16.

Q3FY17 adjusted PAT at Rs 6.5 bn was driven by Coal mining vertical (EBITDA of Rs 8 bn; up 30% QoQ on account of 18% increase in realization). However, higher coal cost dented profitability of Mundra (Rs 0.3 bn EBITDA vs. Rs 2.8 bn in Q2).

Q2FY17 adjusted PAT at Rs 5.2 bn grew 10% YoY. Improvement in results was driven by Mundra (PLF of 82% vs. 62% in Q1 due to low plant availability), steady performance for Delhi distribution (EBITDA of Rs 2.5 bn adjusted for one-off MAT credit of Rs 3.8 bn) and improvement in profitability of Indone..