Tata Power Company Ltd. share price target

Tata Power (TPWR) saw a muted Q2FY26, stifled by a shutdown of its 4GW coal-based power plant – a consequence of the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) impasse.

TPWR aims to double EBITDA to INR300b by FY30; for the Mundra plant, company is in advanced discussions to finalize a new SPPA mechanism (similar in nature to Section XI), which should enable power scheduling from Jan’26.

Tata Power (TPWR) is present across the power value chain – generation, transmission and distribution. TPWR has diversified its presence over the years – from its conventional thermal power and integrated Mumbai distribution business, the company is now building up its renewables portfolio with notable backward integration via in-house solar EPC and module/cell manufacturing.

TPWR’s consolidated EBITDA/adj. PAT came in at INR33b/INR9.2b, below our estimates by 12%/13%. The weakness in results was largely attributable to Mundra plant shutdown in 2Q, which offset the stronger performance at Odisha distribution and the solid ramp-up at TP Solar on a YoY basis.

Tata Power has been integrating a diverse set of businesses in its portfolio. From a conventional thermal power and integrated Mumbai distribution business, it has come a long way in building its renewable pack – a trifecta of solar manufacturing, solar EPC and RE generation.

TPWR’s 1QFY26 EBITDA came in 25% above our estimate at INR41b, while adjusted PAT was in line with our est. at INR10.6b.

The company's overall performance was strong, driven by efficient execution in its renewable pipeline, full-scale solar cell and module operations, and sustained leadership in rooftop solar and EV infrastructure. Strategic initiatives such as pumped hydro development, clean energy expansion and digital grid modernisation underscore its commitment to long-term growth. Management's calibrated capital allocation, rural electrification push and third-party EPC order execution offer...

Tata Power Company Limited’s (TPCL) Q4FY25 Adjusted PAT grew by 14.5% y-o-y to Rs. 1,025 crore and was a little ahead of estimates. The earnings growth is attributable to the traditional generation, coal, Tata Power Solar (cell & module plant), Odisha discoms and a lower tax rate.

Tata Power reported a good set of result in Q4FY25. EBITDA came in at INR 34.8bn (+27% YoY) driven by strong performance in renewables segment – solar manufacturing and renewable generation, coupled with strong show by Odisha discoms.

TPWR’s 4QFY25 EBITDA came in 7% above our estimate at INR32.5b, while adjusted PAT was in line with our est. at INR9.7b.

Tata Power Company Limited’s (TPCL) Q3FY25 Adjusted PAT grew by 8.2% y-o-y to Rs. 1,031 crore, which was inline with our estimates.

Tata Power commissioned 4GW of solar cell capacity in Q3FY25. Its solar manufacturing capacity reported an excellent set of result – INR 13bn in revenue and INR 1bn in profit in Q3. It now operates largest integrated solar cell and module manufacturing plant in the country.

TPWR’s 3QFY25 EBITDA came in 4% below our estimate but was up 38% on a YoY basis.The rise in EBITDA was driven by: 1) robust growth in the standalone business amid strong PLFs and regulatory upside in Mundra.

Tata Power in its analyst meet showed a roadmap for the company till FY30. Company has increased the capex guidance to Rs. 25,000 annually from Rs. 22,000 crore previously.

Tata Power: Site Visit and Analyst Meet 2024

Tata Power hosted its Investor Day at its 4.3GW solar cell and module factory in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu on 6 Dec’24.

We attended Tata Power’s analyst meet, where the company showcased its
4.3GW cell and module manufacturing facility at Tirunelveli in Tamil Nadu. The
event was also attended by senior management from the company.

Q2 consolidated Adj. PAT of Rs. 1,067 crore was up 22% y-o-y (adjusted for one off items). Delhi Discom had a PAT of Rs. 297 crore (+178% y-o-y) due to a favorable tariff order impact.