Shree Cements Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Shree Cement (SRCM) reported a robust performance in Q1FY26 with EBITDA growing by 34% YoY to Rs12bn, driven by effective cost control and pricing strategy. Net profit almost doubled to Rs6,185mn, up 95% QoQ, underlining the company's margin improvement and operational leverage. The EBITDA margin expanded by nearly 590 bps YoY to 24.8%, and cash profit also saw a healthy 24% YoY rise to Rs12mn. Total sales volume for the Q1 2026 stood at 9mn tonnes. The contribution of premium cement products in trade sales improved to 17.7%, up from 15.6% QoQ. Given the improvement in cement prices, we...

SRCM reported a weak operating standalone performance in Q1FY26, impacted by a 7% YoY decline in volumes impacted by geopolitical issues in May'25. Blended NSR rose 3.8% QoQ, supported by significant price hikes in the East and South regions post Mar'25. Power and fuel costs continued to decline, aided by a higher share of renewable energy, helping SRCM achieve an EBITDA of Rs1,373/t, though other expenses remained elevated. As cement pricing across regions remain sticky aided by relatively better demand, we expect SRCM to deliver strong Q2 on a weak base. With its focus on value over volume,...

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) Q1FY26 volume declined 7% YoY, yet the EBIDTA surged 34% YoY led by price hikes. With blended realisation rising ~4% QoQ (up 10% YoY), EBITDA/t catapulted 44% YoY (down a mere 2% QoQ) to INR 1,373.

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 1QFY26 operating performance was in line with our estimates. EBITDA increased ~34% YoY to INR12.3b and EBITDA/t rose ~44% YoY to INR1,373 (est. INR1,325).

In a recent media interaction, Shree Cement’s management stated that cement demand was slightly subdued in May due to a heatwave and geopolitical uncertainty (IndiaPakistan tensions) in the North.

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) FY26 playbook, as articulated by Chairman Mr H M Bangur in a recent media interview (Link), seems decisive and leaves little room for ambiguity.

Shree Cement's Q4FY25 revenue rose slightly, owing to an increase in sales volume. The company's growing focus on premium products improved average realisation per tonne in the quarter. The company is also continuing to focus on increasing the share of green power, which will further reduce the cost of producing cement. Despite the decrease in the cost of sales, higher employee costs, other operating expenses and tax outgo shrunk the profit margin this quarter. For FY26, the company projects cement demand to grow 6.5%-7.5%, owing to sustained capex in infrastructure projects, recovery in the rural economy, continuing...

Keeping up with its ‘industry-superior’ performance trend, Shree Cement (SRCM) reported a fabulous Q4FY25. Adjusted EBITDA/t stood at a whooping INR 1,459, surging 35% QoQ (reported being INR 1,404) being 7% ahead of our estimate.

SRCM commissioned 3mtpa GU at Etah (UP) and 3.4mtpa GU at Baloda Bazar (CG), taking its total cement production capacity to 62.8mtpa. SRCM delivered robust operating performance in Q4FY25 on the back sharp 4.5% QoQ jump in NSR while volumes grew at moderate pace, 3.3% YoY to 9.84mt. SRCM continued to adopt value over volume strategy in FY25 and achieved industry leading EBITDA/t however volume remained flattish....

Realisation dent drags revenue growth by a steep 19%/23% in Q2FY25, partially offset by relatively lower volume decline of 7% YoY

We maintain our HOLD rating on the company

We retain a Buy rating on Shree Cement with a revised PT of Rs. 28,800, factoring a marginal downward revision in operational profitability led by lower volume growth than earlier envisaged.

Shree Cements’ Q2 was muted due to the weak demand-pricing environment, owing to prolonged monsoons and low infrastructure spends by the government.

Shree Cement (SRCM)’s 2QFY25 EBITDA was in line as lower-than-estimated
realization/t was offset by lower-than-estimated opex/t.

Maintaining market share will be the key priority in the supply glut market situation, though capacity utilisation may hover ~70%

We change our rating from BUY to HOLD

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) volume focus in Q1FY25 was exceptional given it stood flat QoQ (up 8% YoY) as against 5-20% drop reported by industry majors.