Dalmia Bharat Ltd. share price target

For Q4FY2025, Dalmia Bharat Limited’s (Dalmia) consolidated revenue of Rs. 4,091 crore (down 5.0% y-o-y) missed our estimate, primarily due to a 2.8% y-o-y decline in cement volumes (excluding JPA tolling volumes of 0.6 mt).

We initiate coverage on Dalmia Bharat with a Buy Rating because of its reasonable valuation as compared to its peers, its leadership position in the high growth region like North-East, strong presence in South & East. Besides, its continuous expansion, improving financials and the company’s focus on being carbon negative will continue to drive growth.

Revenue declined by 5% YoY (+30% QoQ) to ~Rs 41bn, as volume growth stunted and realisations fell despite slower volume gains

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

annually for DALBHARA (has 9.9mtpa cement capacity in TN). Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA) reported a decent operating performance in Q4FY25, led by a sharp sequential volume recovery (28%) driven by government spending and pent-up demand post the festive season. Average NSR improved by just 1.1% QoQ, as the decline in prices in the Southern region price, which should aid H1FY26 earnings. Lower operating costs aided by...

Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA)’s 4QFY25 EBITDA increased ~21% YoY to INR7.9b (6% miss, due to lower-than-estimated volume). EBITDA/t was up ~24% YoY at INR922 (est. INR946).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA)’s 3QFY25 EBITDA declined 34% YoY to INR5.1b (11% miss due to lower-than-estimated volume and higher variable cost/t). EBITDA/t was down 33% YoY to INR767 (est. INR800).

DALBHARA's presence in East and South India may be hit by excess supply; we factor in 1% price hikes in FY26/FY27 after a dent in FY25

Revenue declined by 2%/15% YoY/QoQ to ~Rs 31bn in Q2FY25 as focus returned to volume growth over guarding against declining realisations

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs 2040/share, implying an upside of 11% from the CMP.

Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA)’s 2QFY25 performance was weak as expected as its EBITDA declined 26% YoY to INR4.3b (5% miss) and EBITDA/t was down 32% YoY to INR650 (est. INR700).

Management has reduced its volume growth guidance for FY2025 to 9% y-o-y from 12% y-o-y, anticipating lower industry growth rate, while it continues to eye volume growth of 1.5x that of industry growth.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.