Sector Updates

Our widespread consumer coverage universe, with a combined revenue of ~INR4,800b and a market cap of ~INR35,000b, registered aggregate revenue and EBITDA growth of 12%/5% in 1QFY26 and 8%/2% in FY25.

Top Conviction Ideas - Trent; Avenue Supermarts

Top Conviction Ideas - Varun Beverages; DOMS Industries

Top Conviction Ideas - Hero MotoCorp Ltd; Bajaj Auto Ltd; Ashok Leyland; Sansera Engineering.

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices remained flat WoW to Rs 50,000/tonne. Meanwhile, DGTR has finalised a three-year safeguard duty on flat steel products, set at 12% in the first year, 11.5% in the second year and 11% in the third year. Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices remained flat WoW at Rs 37,500/tonne, amid subdued demand as buyer adopted wait and watch approach. Chinese HRC: Chinese HRC prices increased by 3.1% WoW to...

In July, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 1.6%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation fell further into the negative zone, reaching a two-year low of -0.6% in July. The sequential drop in CPI inflation was mainly due to a favourable base effect and a strong monsoon that kept food inflation in check.

The RBI said the inflation outlook for FY26 had become more benign than expected, supported by healthy autumn crop sowing and strong food grain buffer stocks. Nuvama expects food inflation to stay low, with core inflation kept in check. Meanwhile, Nomura sees inflation bottoming out now and hovering around 2% until November before rising again.

In May'25, PVC resin prices increased by Rs 1.5 per Kg in the domestic market, marking a reversal after consistent decline over the past five months and PVC resin prices increased by Rs 4.6 per Kg till Aug-25. However, in Q1FY26...

Top Conviction Ideas - Metals & Mining - Hindalco Industries Ltd; National Aluminium Company Ltd; APL Apollo tubes.

Potential financing opportunity in affordable housing segment is est. INR 45 tn. by 2030 which is 3.5x increase from existing loan volume of INR 13 tn. driven by PMAY-2.0, interest rate subsidies, favorable Govt. policies like RERA, rapid urbanization.

In Q1 FY26, the Indian IT sector delivered a soft performance, with Tier-2 firms like Coforge outperforming large players in both revenue growth and execution. Largecap companies such as TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech were impacted by macroeconomic uncertainty that delayed discretionary spending, leading to muted growth. However, strong deal wins especially at Infosys and HCLTech indicates improvement in demand, prompting both firms to raise the lower end of their FY26 revenue guidance. Tier-2 players meanwhile maintained their strong growth outlooks. GenAI, cloud, and digital transformation remained key drivers of interest but monetization continues to lag as clients focus on pilots rather than scaled adoption. The absence...

Top Conviction Ideas - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI): HDFC Bank; Kotak Mahindra Bank; SBI; City Union Bank; Bajaj Finance Ltd; Shriram Finance Ltd

Top Conviction Ideas - UltraTech Cement Ltd, Ambuja Cements Ltd, Dalmia Bharat Ltd, JK Lakshmi Cement

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices increased by 1.0% WoW to Rs 50,200/tonne, as major steel manufacturers have raised their prices for August sale, supported by improved global market sentiments. Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices decreased by 0.8% WoW to Rs 37,500/tonne, as market sentiments continue to remain subdued amid...

Trump's 50% Tariff on India Over Russia Ties Alarms Economy

During Jul-25, Indian steel prices declined 2% MoM to Rs49,700/tonne, while Chinese steel rose by 10% MoM to $490/tonne. Coking coal prices increased by 9% MoM to $148/tonne, driven by production cuts and a safety crackdown in China. In Jun-25, Indian steel production rose by 1% MoM to 13.7 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output declined by 4% MoM to 83 mn tonnes, while global steel production contracted by 4% MoM to 151 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports fell by 8% MoM but rose 11% YoY to 9.6mn tonnes, amid growing speculation of production cuts by Chinese mills. Additionally, USA imposed steep tariffs on imports...

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the policy repo rate at 5.50% and continued with its neutral stance. Having reduced the policy rate by 100 bps since February 2025, the MPC chose to wait for further transmission of these front-loaded cuts to credit markets and the broader economy. A CRR cut announced in the previous policy will be implemented in a staggered manner starting September, aimed at supporting liquidity. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) remains unchanged at 5.25%, while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remain at 5.75%. The financial position of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) and NBFCs remain healthy, supported...

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the policy repo rate at 5.5%, keeping it unchanged for the current review. Consequently, the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) stands steady at 5.25%, while both the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remain aligned at 5.75%.

In our monthly Hotels update we have summarized key events of the domestic hotel industry, new hotels signing/addition by key players during the month and pricing trend of key cities for July, 2025. We have analyzed pricing of 171 hotels with ~33,000 keys across 8 cities to understand the trend over last 24 months (Exhibit 1-8). The industry witnessed improvement in ADR on YoY as well as MoM in key selected markets. After decline in ADR in earlier months (due to seasonality), the trend reversal in ADR is on expected line. We anticipate further strengthening of ADR aided by festive season and long weekends in upcoming months. We remain positive on domestic...

In July 2025, India’s automobile industry navigated an uncertain landscape marked by split dynamics across
its segments. Passenger car dispatches were flat or slightly down, reflecting weak demand, high inventory
levels, and a cautious retail outlook.

Northvolt - When giga ambitions faced failure of gigantic proportions The most ambitious project of the West to challenge the dragon's dominance in battery manufacturing, turned out to be a damp squib with the company Northvolt filing for bankruptcy protection in the US in Nov'24, followed by in Sweden in Mar'25. A decade of advancements in Li-ion, Na-ion and Li-metal batteries led by Tesla veterans, funded of ~USD15bn, an order book of +USD50bn, and backed by the likes of Volkswagen, BMW, Goldman Sachs and Baillie Gifford, went up in smoke. As several Indian companies are focusing on new energy, it is important to look at the challenges that lie ahead. Some Indian companies like RIL have demonstrated phenomenal execution capabilities even with unrelated diversifications like in telecom and retail in the past. However, the know-how built by Chinese, Japanese and South Korean companies over...