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Weak quarter; Land License Fee shocker. Move rating to Accumulate Q1FY21 report lower than estimated Sales, EBIDTA, and PAT during the quarter. Revenue at Rs ~11.9Bn, down -27% YoY /-24% QoQ led -21%/8% volume/realisation decline. Margins at 13.4%, a multi-year low. Expects improvement in H2FY21. Q2 will be better than Q1FY21. Ministry of Railways has demanded for Rs 7.77Bn as LLF for FY21 for the Okhla and Tughlakabad Terminals of CONCOR at Delhi. However, company believes that demand is not as per the Railway's extant policy. Rs 1.2Bn has been provided for the quarter....
From April 1, the Railway Ministry revised the annual land licensing fee (LLF) norms for Concor (Indian Railway land on which ~25 Concor of total 64 terminals operate). The change should be seen in the backdrop of Concor's privatisation, as earlier mode of LLF payment provided certain advantage to the company vs. other private CTOs. Earlier method of payment was based on Concor's volumes and was, thus, variable in nature (| 1175/TeU). However, the revised mode of payment is fixed in nature (6% of value of land). This has caused LLF payment to jump from earlier | 120 crore paid in...
Given the pickup in fuel demand post COVID-19 lockdown coupled with IOCL's current capex plans, margins to improve over the long term. Also, the stock is currently available at attractive valuations. We hereby reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of Rs. 96 based on SOTP. Topline declines with low fuel demand IOCL recorded revenue of Rs. 88,937cr, a fall of 40.8% YoY, due to nationwide lockdown and lower capacity utilization in April. Petroleum Products sales fell 41.6% YoY to Rs. 85,197cr, due to de-growth of gasoline and gas oil. Petrochemicals fell 27.9%...
Commencing of new terminals, strategic initiatives along with value offerings, etc. help CCRI sustain growth momentum ahead. CCRI reported decent 1Q numbers led by healthy volumes despite impact of Covid-19 pandemic indicating signs of revival in economic activity. However,...
HPCL Q1FY21 result was a strong beat to our and consensus estimates led by robust marketing profits however refining profits remained muted. The company's revenue declined 47% YoY to Rs377.2bn led by 26% decline in product sales volume to 7.2mmt and lower crude oil price. However on a positive surprise, refining throughput grew by 1.3% to 3.97mmt. Reported/Core GRM came at US$0.04/-0.9/bbl, lower than our estimates. We are raising our FY21 EBITDA/PAT estimates by 6.2%/9.4% to factor in strong beat and keeping FY22E estimates largely unchanged. We are raising our TP to...
We maintain our FY21/22 earnings estimates. During Q1FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains was healthy at Rs37.2bn (+71%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($0.04/bbl vs $0.75/bbl in Q1FY20). Weak global demand and high inventory levels to likely keep crude oil prices...
Depreciation rose 10% to Rs 2613.12 crore. PBT was down 42% to Rs 2983.38 crore. Tax expense decreased 54% to Rs 854.15 crore. PAT was down 35% to Rs 2129.23 crore. Considering share of profit or losses of associates and minority interest, net profit of the company reported 40% fall to Rs 2226.8 crore. Promoter shareholding remains unchanged at 51.5% at the end of June'20 quarter compared...
IOC's Q1FY21 result was lower than our expectations owing to higher inventory losses against expectation of gains and lower than expected volume. IOC's crude throughput declined 25.2% YoY to 12.9mmt (vs IDBIest of 13.8mmt) while sales volume dipped 27% YoY to 16.5mmt (IDBIest 17.4mmt). Robust profit at marketing division was offset by huge loss at refining and sharp decline in profit of the pipeline business. Reported GRM came at a negative US$1.98/bbl whereas normalized GRM was US$4.3/bbl (inventory loss of US$6.8/bbl). The company highlighted that Q2FY21 should witness an inventory gains as average cost of oil is US$32.6/bbl. We largely keep our estimates and target...
4 August 2020 volumes increased 7% YoY to 2.57mt on improving demand from steel plants as domestic demand improves. This, coupled with higher international iron ore prices, has enabled NMDC to raise prices this month by INR200/t (~9%) to INR2,360/2,650 per ton for fines/lumps. We believe NMDCs iron ore prices should sustain in 2HFY21 due to rising steel prices (up ~INR2,000/t MoM), higher pellet prices (up 20% MoM to INR7,200/t), and reduced iron ore supply from Odisha mines. Volume growth of 7% YoY reported by NMDC (to 2.57mt) in July20 has surprised and is three months ahead of our expectation of positive volume print in 2HFY21. While iron ore production from several auctioned mines in Odisha has commenced in the current quarter, we believe production from these mines would be lower by >30% YoY in FY21, supporting NMDCs volumes in the near term.