Downgrades

With a 24% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power.

For Q4FY25, Net Interest Income (NII) came in at INR 6,101 Mn., up 8.5% YoY (-0.6% QoQ), below our estimates driven by higher-than-expected interest expenses. The Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) stood at INR 2,384 Mn, reflecting a 41.8% YoY decline (-36.1% QoQ) driven by sharp increase in employee and other operating expenses.

Quarterly Update Q1CY25

We downgrade IIB to REDUCE from Add, cutting our TP by 9.4% to Rs725 (from Rs800). This is in view of the spate of top management resignations, including the MD & CEO, which should increase business/margin disruption including risk of another round of deposit run-down, impact on asset quality, middlemanagement attrition, and possibility of appointment of an RBI nominee on the Board as well as a PSU banker as MD & CEO (similar to Bandhan/RBL).

With a 15% upside from the CMP, we maintain our long-term BUY rating on the stock.

MOFS continued its steady performance in Q4FY25 amid volatile markets and despite impact of the new F&O regulations, with operating PAT at Rs5.2bn (+4% YoY; -1% QoQ). However, treasury loss of Rs7.43bn resulted in reported consolidated loss (including OCI) of Rs2.2bn.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

We recommend our HOLD rating on the stock.