Buy

Lupin's (LPC) 1QFY17 revenues of INR44.3b (+41% YoY) were in line with our estimate. EBITDA margin of 29.5% was ~300bp below our estimate due to lower-than-expected sales from gGlumetza, one-time impact of ~1% from accounting of Gavis inventory at fair value and higher employee costs (+42% YoY). However, PAT of INR8.8b was higher than our estimate due to a lower tax rate of ~23% in 1Q (full-year guidance of ~27-28%). Motilal Oswal maintain Buy with a TP of INR1,850 @ 23x FY18E PER (v/s INR2,000 @ 25x FY18E PER). Their EPS estimates largely remain unchanged.

Repco Home Finance’s (REPCO) 1QFY17 PAT grew 30.8% YoY (5% beat), driven by strong NII growth (+27% YoY, 3% beat) and significant cost control. Moreover, operating expenses declined 3.5% YoY (20% miss). Business momentum remained healthy, with the loan book up 26% YoY to INR79.6b, in line with prior quarters’ growth trajectory. However, sanctions and disbursements in 1QFY17 grew only 3% each due to the impact of Tamil Nadu state elections. However, management expects disbursement growth to pick up going forward. The loan mix shifted marginally toward self-employed (59.1% share v/s 57.1% in 1QFY16). The share of LAP loans also increased marginally to 20.1%. Margins remained stable YoY at 4.3%. Asset quality remained stable YoY with GNPLs at 2.22% (also 2.22% in 1QFY16). However, REPCO made provisions of INR179m v/s INR113m in 1QFY16 in order to increase PCR, which stood 45.1% v/s 41.8% last year. Operating expenses fell 3.5% YoY, with an equivalent decline in both employee and other operating expenses. As a result, C/I ratio declined ~500bp YoY to 16.2%.Motilal Oswal Maintain Buy with a TP of INR966/share (4.5x FY18 BV).

Manappuram's Net Income at INR 486cr grew by 59% YoY on the back of 29% growth in AUM. NIMs expanded 370bp YoY / 40bp QoQ as (i) the company suffered severe auction losses in 1QFY16, (ii) company shifted its entire incremental advances towards the three month product which commands a higher yield. Further, lower OPEX growth of 8% aided Pre Provisioning Profits to come in at INR 266cr, an increase of 156% YoY. Provisioning increased from INR 12cr to INR 16cr on YoY basis. Consequently profits grew by a robust 170% to INR 160cr, much above our estimate of INR 128cr. Motilal Oswal value the company at INR 114 (earlier INR 75),maintain BUY.

Revenue for Q1FY17 rose by ~29% to INR 61.9cr from INR.48.1cr YoY. Revenue from owned & leased hotel and room chartering increased by ~21%/~36% YoY respectively. EBITDA came in at INR 12.9cr (+31.5% YoY with margin expansion of ~5bps). PAT grew to INR 6.4cr (+37% YoY).BYKE currently trades at 15x FY18E EPS. Motilal Oswal expect the company to grow its profits at 29% CAGR over FY16- 18E and maintain the target price of INR 215 (20x FY18E EPS).

Revenue growth of 11.4% YoY was aided by 7.2% growth in footfalls to 15.5 million (vs. 14.7 million estimated) owing to the strong performance of some movies such as Jungle Book, Housefull 3, Fan, Captain America, Sairat, etc, at the box office. Net box office collections came in at | 213.5 crore, up 10.5% YoY aided by an increase in footfalls and 5.5% YoY growth in average ticket prices to | 174. F&B revenues came in at | 80.7 crore, aided by 3.4% YoY growth in spends per head to | 61. Advertising revenues, however, remained tepid for the company at | 21.3 crore (up 2.8% YoY).ICICI Securities Limited maintain BUY recommendation and value it 11x FY18E EV/EBITDA (at ~20% discount to PVR) to arrive at a target price of | 290/share.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Marico delivered yet another quarter of healthy volume growth with 8% growth in Q1FY17. However, price cuts taken by the company owing to a decline in copra prices proved to be a drag on the topline as consolidated net sales remained flat at | 1749.9 crore for Q1FY17 Parachute rigid packs, value added hair oils and Saffola reported robust volume growth of 7%, 9% and 11%, respectively Operating margins expanded 314 bps to 21.3% on the back of a...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mangalam Cement reported a good set of Q1FY17 numbers. Revenues grew 6.0% YoY to | 224.1 crore (vs. I-direct estimate: | 207.4 crore) led by better realisations, up 5.9% YoY to | 3,705 (vs. I-direct estimate of | 3,700) due to strong presence in north, where prices remained healthy. On the other hand, sales volume of the company remained flat at 0.61 MT (vs. I-direct estimate of 0.56 MT) The company reported EBITDA of | 47.1 crore vs. EBITDA loss of...

Key highlights: Strong numbers with positive operating leverage and lower promotions aided an unanticipated margin improvement. Management remains optimistic on demand outlook in Q2FY17, as normal monsoons should lead revival in otherwise languishing rural sales.They increase their estimates by 4%/7% for FY17/18 on better margin performance and retain our Buy rating with a revised target price of Rs 3,750 (Rs 3,260 earlier);Phillip Capital now value Hero at 17x our FY18 EPS (16x earlier) – have upped the target multiple on strong volume outlook and decent margin performance.They retain their Buy rating with a revised target price of Rs 3,750.

Top takeaways from Q1FY17: Revenue growth at 12.5% yoy was ahead of our/street estimates.Volume growth at 6% yoy with domestic volume growth of 5% yoy was in line; pricing growth continued to be robust at 6% yoy. Market share in Tooth paste recovered 60bps qoq to 55.9%; Tooth brush share improved 100 bps qoq to 46.8%.Gross margins rose 240bps yoy and surprised positively. EBIDTA margins shrunk 160bps yoy on higher ad spends and EBITDA growth missed estimates.Phillip Capital value the company at 40x, FY18E earnings (35x earlier) at Rs 1110 (earlier Rs 960) and maintain Buy.

Trendlyne has 11 reports on COLPAL updated in the last year from 4 brokers with an average target of Rs 995.5. Brokers have a rating for COLPAL with 2 price downgrades,1 price upgrade in past 6 months and 1 upgrade,2 price upgrades in past 1 Year.

Bharat Forge’s (BFL) 1QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.3bn (-48% YoY, -20% QoQ) was well below expectations. Net sales at Rs 9.6bn (-19% YoY) were a miss on account of sharper-than-expected decline in exports (-37% YoY). EBITDA margins saw 370bps QoQ drop on higher other expenses (+600bps QoQ), partially offset by gross margins benefiting from lower RM prices. Industrial demand continued to sag. HDFC Securities Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 906 based on 25x FY18E EPS.