We believe we may be at the fag-end of top-line/WC pressure as MBO rationalization is nearly over. Margins are also set to improve FY21 onwards as TCNS 1. smartly re-negotiates rent bills and 2. Low base effect. While we cut our EBITDA estimates by 3-4% to factor in higher cost of retailing, we roll-forward our DCF to FY22 and hence, maintain our TP of Rs. 670/sh, implying 18x EV/EBITDA. Reiterate BUY. TCNS continues to reel under the pain of 1. Heightened competitive intensity as 1. Peers step up liquidation/promotion to reduce their working capital pangs (Per channel checks), 2. MBO sales continue to dip, 3. Selling & Distribution (S&D;) increases cost of retailing. However, we believe the worst may be behind the category leader as MBO rationalization is nearly over and product lines are getting better. The company has been adding relevant categories (Drape/bottom-wear) via brand Elleven and Footwear to better round its portfolio of offerings for women.
Strong focus on retail and a shift to the 12 season model is likely to help improve assortment freshness footfall enabler; ergo sustain growth momentum across anchor formats. We continue to prefer strong Brands and value fashion plays and ABFRL is well placed to milk both categories. We revise our DCF-based TP to Rs. 290/sh (earlier Rs. 250). Revision is a function of 1. Revision in our EBITDA estimates (1.5-2%) for FY21/22 respectively and 2. DCF-roll-over to FY22. ABFRL's revenue grew 12.3% YoY to Rs. 25.6bn (3.5% above estimated Rs. 24.76bn) as both anchors - Madura and Pantaloons performed well and beat expectations. Adj. EBITDA margins (Pre-IND-AS) stood at 8.4% (vs est: 7.1%). The beat was a function of 1. GM trickle down effect, 2. Improved profitability in Pantaloons and 2. Reducing losses in the fast fashion biz. The company reported losses for the quarter (Rs. Rs. 334mn) primarily due to a higher tax outgo (courtesy a one-time deferred tax charge of Rs. Rs. 1.43bn)
While execution remains top-notch, Trent seems priced to perfection with little on the table for investors at 33x FY22 EV/EBITDA. That said, we revise EBITDA estimates upwards by 4-5% for FY21/22 primarily to factor in lower cost of retailing. This coupled with our DCF roll-over for standalone biz and Zara to FY22 bumps up our SOTP-based TP to Rs. 580/sh (earlier Rs. 490). We bake in 28/30/41% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR and a 440bp improvement in RoIC (ex-investments in JVs/subsidiaries over FY19-22E. Maintain NEUTRAL. Westsides clockwork-like growth continues. Trents flagship format grew 22% YoY in 9MFY20. SSSG came in at 12% - healthiest within our retail universe. We estimate Zudio to have more than doubled top-line over 9MFY20, however, we suspect productivity may have dipped. Gross margin continues to dip as 1. Zudios skew increases in the revenue mix. Share in JV/associate losses have increased over 9MFY20. While the Westside format remains a winner in terms of unit store economics; the same for Zudio is yet to be tested in catchments without a corresponding Westside store as currently the former piggybacks on the supply chain of Westside.
We trim our EBITDA est for CY20/21E by 9/1% each factoring in weak pricing impact. Despite weak pricing, we expect ACC's margin to sustain at ~Rs 800/MT levels driven by energy cost tailwinds. The upcoming expansions of 6mn MT in central and east markets will drive volume growth CY22 onwards. Our EBITDA est for ~5% lower CY20/21E are We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 1780 (10x CY21E EBITDA), implying EV of USD 140/MT. We continue to apply 20% discount to its 5-yr mean, for ACC's significant delays in expansions and subsequent continued market share loss. We maintain BUY on ACC with a revised TP of Rs 1,780 (11x its CY21E consolidated EBITDA, implying EV of USD 140/MT). While ACC closed CY19 with subdued 4QCY19 performance in the cement segment, working capital release boosted its CY19 OCF to a decade high!
1) Strong execution, 2. Insulation from an online onslaught and 3) inherent advantage within the ecosystem given the tail's precarious working capital position makes VMART our top pick in apparel retail. We revise our DCF-based TP upwards to Rs. 2,500/sh (earlier Rs. 2,150/sh). Revision is a function of 1. DCF roll-over to FY22, 2. 3/7% increase in FY21/22 EBITDA estimates to factor in better gross margins given the focus on full-price sell-through/fresh merchandise. V-MART continues to track strong growth, albeit expansion-led. SSSG print remains uninspiring (1%). What surprised us positively were higher margins, low SSSG notwithstanding. 1. Clockwork-like execution, 2. Higher full price sell-through, 3. Better merchandise sourcing margins courtesy vendor consolidation underpinned margin expansion. Store expansion remains tactical in existing Tier 1/2 catchments to tighten supply chain costs and in catchments with struggling peers (credit cycles running up for the latter) to gain market share.
PSP delivered robust 3QFY20 performance led by SDB project execution. Base business run-rate ex-SDB of Rs 2.3bn/qtr needs to ramp up to provide growth visibility beyond FY21E as SDB will get completed by Dec-20E. New order wins augur well for growth. Recent award outside Gujarat of Rs 3.4bn in Varanasi is directionally well placed for de-risking Gujarat exposure. We remain cautious on rising share of Govt order in mix. These projects come with interest bearing advances and large BG requirement. Besides PSP needs to arrange 25% cash margin for availing BG's. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in diversification outside Gujarat; (2) Delays in new order conversion & (3) Further delay in SDB Project execution. PSP delivered Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 43/32/25% on back of robust execution in SDB project. We maintain BUY with an increased TP Rs 607/sh TP vs Rs 590/sh earlier (we value EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS vs 16x earlier). We have increased our FY20E/FY21E EPS estimates by 7/3%.
AP orders removal improves visibility on net executable order book and we believe this is already reflected in the price. AP NWC recovery of Rs 8.3bn is the key overhang now. NCC has resumed orders bidding and is likely to surprise positively on new order inflows for FY21E. TAQA out of court settlement may result in Rs 1bn hit for NCC. Sembcorp arbitration hearing is expected to conclude by Mar-20 with final judgment by Sep-20. We have cut FY20/21E EPS by 8.9/5.0%. Maintain BUY with reduced TP of Rs 106/sh. Key risks (1) Adverse ruling on ongoing arbitrations; (2) Slow down in government capex; (3) Deterioration in NWC days; and (4) Weak real estate monetization. NCC reported inline 3QFY20 financial performance, Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 11.4/11.5/0%. With removal of Rs 71bn of slow moving AP orders net executable order book stands at Rs 250bn. We maintain BUY with reduced TP of Rs 106/Sh (EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS) vs. Rs 111/sh earlier.
Summer 2019 confirms our thesis that Symphony will deliver strong performance if summer is hot. Organised air cooler market (27/35% volume/value mix) will deliver 15% CAGR despite rising affluence towards RAC. Symphony's constant focus on product innovation and superior franchise with distributors will make the company competitive. With low trade inventory, record and buoyed with new launches, Symphony will enjoy stocking in earnest if the summer is strong as expected. Besides, its international performance will improve given the various initiatives undertaken. Symphony posted strong 27/29% domestic rev/EBIT growth at a time when most consumer companies are facing issue is maintaining trade inventory amidst liquidity issue. Co has delivered 48/68% domestic rev/EBIT growth in 9MFY20. Strong franchise with trade, high brand recall, record new launches and favourable base are driving the domestic growth. We remain bullish on Symphony given its sharp recovery in domestic biz and scope to tap new opportunities (industrial and commercial cooling, portable coolers in Aus and US). We value Symphony at 45x Dec-21 EPS. We believe the stock will re-rate owing to consistent outperformance vs. other appliance cos. We maintain BUY with TP of Rs 1,786.
Emami's underperformance over the last 3 years has not been caused by competitive intensity rather its own challenges like (1) High wholesale dependence, (2) Core brands' dependence on seasonality, (3) Limited portfolio for premiumisation and (4) Pledge related disturbance. The company has made some progress in the last 2 years in diversifying its distribution from wholesale (~38% mix now vs. 52% earlier) to modern trade (9-10% mix now vs. 4% earlier) and direct reach (0.95mn stores vs. 0.63mn earlier). Besides, stake sale in Emami cement, will reduce the promoter pledge in Emami to ~25% vs. 72%. It will ease the pressure on promoters and will result in renewed strategy to revive domestic business. We remain bullish on Emami, given favorable risk-reward and potential rebound in domestic business. Emamis 3Q was muted across the board, with flashes of outperformance. Domestic business was impacted by delayed winter and persistent weakness in male grooming. However, 60% of domestic business (ex-winter portfolio and male grooming) posted 13/10% val/vol growth. Emami Group also sealed the sale of its stake in the Cement biz in Feb-20, which will significantly reduce promoter pledge. As a result, increased focus by the promoters on the domestic biz can fill the required gaps in domestic business in FY21. We value Emami at 30x on Dec-21E EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 445. Maintain BUY.
Our NEUTRAL stance on INDOSTAR remains unchanged. The capital infusion will dispel concerns about the co.'s ability to cope with asset quality and liquidity issues, but it does not preclude further deterioration in asset quality. Commentary and broader economic conditions indicate that stress may continue to manifest. Elevated provisions may follow curtailing earnings. Post the capital raise, RoAE improvement will be further deferred. INDOSTARs 3Q operating performance (PPOP, -3/-21% YoY/QoQ) was in line. High provisions (~Rs 1.1bn, ~4% ann.) wiped out profits. Asset quality deteriorated in spite of high W/Os, and remains a concern. The proposed fund infusion is a positive. Maintain NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 300 (1.0x Dec-21E ABV). The tender offer (at Rs 290) does set a floor in the near term.
