TCNS Clothing Co. Ltd.

NSE: TCNSBRANDS | BSE: 541700 | ISIN: INE778U01029 | Industry: Other Apparels & Accessories
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HDFC Securities
We believe we may be at the fag-end of top-line/WC pressure as MBO rationalization is nearly over. Margins are also set to improve FY21 onwards as TCNS 1. smartly re-negotiates rent bills and 2. Low base effect. While we cut our EBITDA estimates by 3-4% to factor in higher cost of retailing, we roll-forward our DCF to FY22 and hence, maintain our TP of Rs. 670/sh, implying 18x EV/EBITDA. Reiterate BUY. TCNS continues to reel under the pain of 1. Heightened competitive intensity as 1. Peers step up liquidation/promotion to reduce their working capital pangs (Per channel checks), 2. MBO sales continue to dip, 3. Selling & Distribution (S&D;) increases cost of retailing. However, we believe the worst may be behind the category leader as MBO rationalization is nearly over and product lines are getting better. The company has been adding relevant categories (Drape/bottom-wear) via brand Elleven and Footwear to better round its portfolio of offerings for women.
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