India’s real GDP grew 7.2% YoY in FY23, exactly in line with our expectations but well ahead of the IMF estimate of 6.8% and the government’s advance estimate of 7%. It made India the fastest-growing G20 economy over the past two years (following real GDP growth of 9.1% in FY22),

Real GDP accelerated to 6.1% YoY growth in Q4FY23, taking growth for FY23 to 7.2% (in line with our estimate, but above the RBI’s 7% and IMF’s 6.8% estimates). The rebound in Q4 was spurred by a turnaround in net exports, as exports of goods and services grew 11.9% YoY while imports decelerated to 4.9% YoY growth.

The total number of passengers carried by domestic airlines rose by 21% YoY in April to 128.9 lakh. Total departures by scheduled carriers also increased YoY to 86,883.

We note players like Astral, Pidilite and J K Cement have entered the paints sector and strengthened their offerings in FY23, and Grasim is also on track to launch in FY24. The war in paints sector to likely to commence soon, in our view. As they say, there are no absolute winners in any war.

Asian markets are trading in the green after the bill to raise the US debt ceiling was passed in the House of Representatives. Nikkei was trading higher by 0.29%, Hang Seng was trading higher by 0.82%, and Shanghai was trading higher by 0.47%.

Hero Motocorp (HMCL) has reported volume increase of 7%/31% YoY/MoM at ~519k units in May’23. Motorcycle sales volumes increased 8%/33% YoY/MoM at ~489k units vs scooters, which decreased 13% YoY (although 10% higher MoM) at ~30k units.

LIC is treading well towards increasing VNB by pushing product mix towards non-participating segment (8.9% in FY23 individual APE mix vs 7.1% in FY22) and sharp focus on improving persistency (improvement in all cohorts except 25M in FY23). Volume growth outperformed the industry in 9MFY23 (27% YoY growth for LIC vs 20% growth for private insurers in terms of total weighted APE) but Q4FY23 witnessed a decline of 16% YoY vs private insurers witnessing a growth of 18% YoY.

India’s imports declined in each of the first four months of CY23, shrinking 6.2% YoY in Jan-Apr’23, including a big decline of 14.8% YoY in Apr’23. This has led some commentators to conclude that the import decline is attributable to a contraction in
domestic demand.