Oil India Ltd. share price target

Oil India's (OIL) Q4FY18 result came below our expectations mainly driven by lower than expected hydrocarbon production volume and higher other expenses. OIL's revenue was up by 19% YoY to Rs29.9 bn, EBITDA also grew 19% YoY to Rs.8bn and PAT increased to Rs8.7 bn vs. Rs193 mn in Q4FY17. Oil realizations increased 23.7% YoY to US$64.9/bbl which was in-line with our expectation. Other expenses rose 44% YoY to Rs5.9 bn led by higher provisioning of Rs3.7 bn vs Rs1.5 bn. We are slightly reducing our TP to Rs237 from Rs243. Upgrade the stock to ACCUMULATE from HOLD on valuation....

Our SOTP target is Rs 338/sh (9x Mar20 standalone core EPS + Rs 88/sh from investments). Maintain BUY. OILs 4QFY18 revenue was at Rs 28.53bn (+19.4% YoY), led by higher oil realisations at Rs 4,178/bbl (+18.8%), and 12.7% increase in gas prices to USD 2.8/mmbtu. In 4QFY17, company had paid one-time royalty of Rs 11.51bn to Government of Assam. Adjusting for it, EBITDA was up 19.3% YoY to Rs 8.01bn. APAT was down 26% YoY to Rs 8.67bn owing to higher income tax.

28 May 2018 OINLs revenue of INR30b (+23% YoY, +5% QoQ) was in line with our estimate. Reported EBITDA of INR8b (+35% YoY, -35% QoQ) was significantly below our estimate of INR10.5b, led by higher other expenditure of USD11.8/boe v/s USD8.3 in 4QFY17 and USD5.9 in 3QFY18. Other expenditure was higher, mainly due to higher provision of INR3.7b v/s INR498m in 3QFY18 and INR1.5b in 4QFY17. OINL made impairment provision of INR1.9b for overseas assets. PAT of INR8.7b (+44x YoY, +23% QoQ) exceeded our estimate of INR6.0b, led by higher other income of INR7.9b (est.

Q3 PAT was below our estimate due to higher-than-expected operating expenses. In Q3, crude production was up 2% YoY, but gas production fell 1% YoY (up 3% in Q2), as demand from gas-based Lakwa power plant was hit due to its prolonged shutdown.

OIL's revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 16.6%/67%/55% YoY to Rs28.5/12.2/7 bn. Oil/gas sales volume rose 1.5%/0.2% YoY to .83mmt/602mmscm. Oil realization grew 20.7% YoY to US$59.4/bbl while expenditure came at US$5.9/boe vs US$8.8/boe. We expect its oil production volume to remain stagnant while gas volume to grow by 1% CAGR to 23.9mmbbls/3bcm in FY19 and flattish in FY20. We roll over our valuation to FY20 gives a new TP of Rs365 from Rs356. Maintain HOLD. Key Highlights and Investment Rationale Higher realization and cost efficiency drove growth; in line with estimate...

Our SOTP target is Rs 471/sh (9x Dec19 standalone core EPS + Rs 124/sh from investments). Maintain BUY. OILs 3QFY18 revenue was at Rs 28.53bn (+16.6% YoY), led by higher oil realisations at Rs3,845/bbl (+16%), and 16% jump in gas sales realisation to USD2.89/mmbtu. EBITDA stood at Rs 12.2bn up 66.8% YoY and up 21% QoQ. EBITDA margin was 42.9%, up 1,291bps YoY owing to 1,192 bps fall in operating ratio.

OINL's revenue of INR28.5b (+20% YoY, +15% QoQ) was ahead of our estimate of INR27.2b, led by higher-than-expected sales. Reported EBITDA of INR12.2b (+84% YoY, +21% QoQ) was significantly above our estimate of INR10.5b, led by lower other expenditure at USD5.9/boe v/s USD8.8/boe in 3QFY17 and USD4.6/boe in 2QFY18. PAT came in at INR7.1b (in-line; +55% YoY, +9% QoQ) ??? the difference at the PAT level declined due to lower other income of INR2.1b (est. of INR4.5b; -34% YoY, -36% QoQ). Realization at USD559.4/bbl: In 3QFY18, gross realization stood at USD59.4/bbl (+21% YoY, +19% QoQ), led by rising crude oil prices. Production of crude oil stood at 0.86mmt (+3% YoY, +1% QoQ) and of gas at 0.73bcm (-1% YoY, -4% QoQ). Total production grew 1% YoY (-2% QoQ) to 1.59mmtoe. Sales of oil stood at 0.83mmt (+1% YoY, -1% QoQ) and of gas at 0.6bcm (flat YoY, -5% QoQ). Total sales grew 1% YoY (-3% QoQ) to 1.44mmtoe

Our SOTP target is Rs 384/sh (9x Sep19 standalone core EPS + Rs 126/sh from investments). Maintain NEUTRAL. In 2QFY18, Oil India (OIL) reported 21% YoY increase in EBITDA to Rs 10.1bn, led by higher oil realisations (+7.9% YoY), increase in oil sales volumes (+3.6% YoY) and gas volumes (+3.4% YoY). However, these factors were offset by lower gas realisations (-18% YoY) and higher employee cost (+20%). PAT came in at Rs 6.46bn (+11% YoY), owing to higher depletion cost (+28%).

Oil India Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue rose by 6.09% to Rs. 2473.74 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it grew by 6.11% when compared with Q2FY17.

Oil India's (OIL) Q2FY18 result was a mixed bag where revenue and PAT was in line with estimate while EBITDA was ahead of expectation. Higher oil/gas volume, net oil realisation along with lower other expenses boosted operating profit. OIL's revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 6%/21%/11% YoY to Rs24.7/10.1/6.5 bn. Oil/gas...