NMDC Ltd. share price target

Low per capita steel consumption provides significant growth potential: Despite being the world's 2nd largest steel consumer, India's per capita consumption of ~103 kg lags significantly behind the ~215 kg of global average. To address this disparity, the government aims to raise per capita steel consumption to 160 kg by 2030-31 and targeting a crude steel production capacity of 300 MT. This, in turn, is expected to drive iron ore demand to ~430 MT. Leveraging sixty years of expertise in iron ore mining, NMDC is poised to lead this long-term structural market expansion....

We have downgraded our ratings to Hold' from Accumulate' with a revised TP of Rs87 (earlier Rs91) valuing it at multiple of 5x EV of Sep'27E EBITDA due to lower price and volume assumptions. NMDC reported weak Q3FY26 operating performance, driven by lower NSR following the price cuts undertaken in Oct'25 and lower premiums received over ore pricing. Volumes grew just 6% YoY to 12.7 mt, with growth constrained by an extended monsoon and increased imports by steel companies. Average realizations declined 4.7% QoQ due to price cuts in both lumps (-Rs550/t) and fines (-Rs500/t). Blended...

3QFY26 revenue stood at INR76.1b (vs. our est. of INR71.1b), rising 16% YoY and 19% QoQ, primarily driven by improved volumes and better NSR. Iron ore production stood at 14.7mt (+11% YoY and +44% QoQ), while sales came in at 12.7mt (+6% YoY and +19% QoQ).

NMDC Ltd (National Mineral Development Corporation) is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter. It operates key mines in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and has a strategic presence in minerals like diamonds and base metals. It plays a critical role in supplying raw material to the domestic steel industry....

income for the quarter came in at 6,378 crore (up 30% YoY) with iron ore sales volume of 10.7 million tonne (up 10% YoY). Reported EBITDA stood at 1,993 crore with corresponding EBITDA/tonne was at 1,857/tonne in Q2FY26 vs....

2QFY26 revenue stood at INR63.8b (vs. our est. of INR60.2b), up 30% YoY but down 5% QoQ, primarily affected by muted volumes.

NMDC Ltd (National Mineral Development Corporation) is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter. It operates key mines in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and has a strategic presence in minerals like diamonds and base metals. It plays a critical role in supplying raw material to the domestic steel industry....

Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR67.4b, rising 25% YoY but declining 4% QoQ. Muted volumes QoQ were offset by healthy NSR.

aided NMDC to deliver an EBITDA/t of Rs2,152. NMDC reported a strong Q1FY26 operating performance, driven by robust volume growth and better-than-expected pricing. Volumes grew 14% YoY supported by strong domestic steel demand supported by increased GoI spending and a lower base (volumes impacted by strike). Realizations rose 7.4% QoQ, led by price hikes undertaken for lump and fines from May'25. Moderate increase in employee cost and lower ramp up of KIOCL pellet plant...

Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR70b, up 8% YoY and 7% QoQ, primarily driven by healthy volumes and NSR growth.

Revenue of Rs. 4,807 crore (+19.7%/-10.6% y-o-y/q-o-q) was inline with estimates. Iron ore sales of 9.7 mt grew by only +1.8%/-3.3% y-o-y/q-o-q. Realization of Rs. Rs. 4,935/tonne grew +17.7%/-7.6% y-o-y/q-o-q.

In 2QFY25, NMDC reported production volume of 8.3mt, down 10% QoQ and 6% YoY, totaling 17.5mt for 1HFY25 (down 11% YoY).

Consolidated PAT at Rs. 1,971 crore was up 19% y-o-y and led by a beat in EBITDA margins due to decrease in royalty payments.

Revenue was in line with our estimate at INR54b, flat YoY/down 17% QoQ. The QoQ decline was primarily due to weak volumes.