Lupin Ltd. share price target

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

Lupin's 2QFY16 marked a period of 5 successive quarters of US miss stymied by lack of new launches which continue to impact Lupin's profitability. Sales/EBITDA/APAT was 6%/9%/28% below our estimates. We see US base business to revive in 4Q led by product specific opportunities. Overall, we expect Lupin to report 20% revenue CAGR and 19% PAT CAGR over FY15-18E primarily led by US generics. We introduce our...

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

Lupin's revenues decreased by 5.7% YoY to Rs 31.5 bn in Q1FY16 lower than our estimates of Rs 33.4 bn on back of de-growth in US business. Operating margins declined by 750bps YoY to 25.9% (lower than our estimate of 26.9%) due to revenue de-growth, higher R&D, other expenses and staff cost.

Lupin's core operating performance in Q1FY16 was weak. Sales/PAT missed our estimates by 6%/10%mainlyonasequential18%declineinUSsalesduetolackofbigticketdruglaunchesand price correction. We estimate Lupin's US sales to see moderate 9% growth in FY16 despite Gavis'...

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

Lupin's reported weak core operating performance in Q4FY15 with sales remaining 4% belowestimatesandmargin100bpsbelowestimate.Thepricecorrection(around12%)in US across its product basket was the key reason for the miss in its core operating...

Lupin's revenues decreased marginally by 0.8% YoY to Rs 30.8 bn in Q4FY15 lower than our estimates of Rs32.7 bn. Operating margins declined by 210bps to 25.6% (lower than our estimate of 27.2%) due to lower revenues, higher R&D and staff cost. Net Profit de-grew by 1.1% YoY to Rs 5470 mn as against our estimates of Rs 5566. Net forex loss was at Rs 367 mn during the quarter.

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

Lupin's revenues increased by 5.2% YoY to Rs 31.8 bn in Q3FY15 lower than our estimates of Rs 34.3 bn. Operating margins improved to 27.8% (higher than our estimate of 26.4%) due to lower raw material cost and R&D. Net Profit grew by 26.3% YoY to Rs 6015 mn, much higher than our estimates of Rs5646 mn due to forex gain of Rs 638 mn included in other income. Net forex gain remains at Rs 169 mn.