Lupin Ltd. share price target

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

With 20% QoQ growth in the US and high other operating income of Rs 2bn (against Rs 1.4bn in the second quarter and Rs 327mn in 3QFY15), Lupin reported 26.1% EBITDA margin, up 500bps sequentially. US sales shot up US$ 34mn QoQ, largely driven by Fortamet, aided by ramp-up in brands and seasonal Ceph sales.

Key highlights: Sales were 6% ahead of our/consensus estimates. US sales at US$ 208mn were7%aheadofourestimate.Ontheotherhand,thedomesticformulationsperformance was in line with expectations. Higher export incentives and higher contribution from...

Lupin's revenues increased 4.7% YoY to Rs 33.2 bn in Q2FY16 lower than our estimates of Rs 34.2 bn on back of de-growth in US and Japan business. Operating margins declined by 600bps YoY to 20.2% (lower than our estimate of 25.9%) due to lower gross margins, higher R&D, other expenses and staff cost. Net Profit de-grew by 35.1% YoY to Rs 4088 mn as against our estimates of Rs 5481 mn.

8 630bps negative margin surprise (mainly due to under performance in its most profitableoperationsofUSgenericsanddomesticformulations)ledto33%yoydecline inearnings(21%/27%belowour/consensusestimates)...

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

Lupin's 2QFY16 marked a period of 5 successive quarters of US miss stymied by lack of new launches which continue to impact Lupin's profitability. Sales/EBITDA/APAT was 6%/9%/28% below our estimates. We see US base business to revive in 4Q led by product specific opportunities. Overall, we expect Lupin to report 20% revenue CAGR and 19% PAT CAGR over FY15-18E primarily led by US generics. We introduce our...

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...