Ambuja Cements Ltd. share price target

Ambuja Cement (ACEM) reported an EBITDA/t of Rs606/t (vs. estimate of Rs783/t, -15.0% YoY, 4.7% QoQ).The miss was driven by lower realizations (Rs 4,208/t, 4.4% YoY, -2.5% QoQ), higher P&F costs (Rs895/t, 4.3 % YoY, 9.7% QoQ) reflecting the pet-coke price increase and higher freight (Rs 1,231, 5.4% YoY, 8.4% QoQ) driven by higher diesel.

Ambuja Cements (ACL) has reported a lower-than-estimated operating performance in 1QCY17 owing to subdued realizations and higher-than-estimated jump in operating cost. Its EBITDA came in at Rs3.65bn (-14% YoY and +24% QoQ), while EBITDA margin stood at 14.4% (-328 bps YoY). EBITDA/tonne came in merely at Rs597 as against Rs716 and Rs579 in 1QCY16 and 4QCY16, respectively. Operating cost/tonne surged by 6.4% YoY mainly due to spike in power and fuel cost/tonne (+2.3% YoY and +8.1% QoQ) and freight cost/tonne (+3.4% YoY and +6.8% QoQ). Though ACL's reported volume has marginally topped our estimates at 6.11mnT (+3% YoY and +20% QoQ), a consistent deterioration in market shares continues to remain a...

Ambuja Cements Ltd. reported 361% rise in its net profit for the quarter ended March, 2017, which came in at Rs 247 crore vs. Rs 54 crore in corresponding quarter of the previous year owing majorly to the lower tax outgo for the quarter. Total income of the company increased by 5.4% to Rs 2,562 crore for...

Q4CY16 standalone EBITDA at Rs 3.3 bn was in line with our estimate but 17% abovethe consensus estimate. Volume was down 9% YoY to 5mntdue to demand slowdown in northern and western regions.

Ambuja Cement (ACEM) reported an EBITDA/t of Rs 579/t (vs. estimate of Rs 367/t, 5.1% YoY, -3.9% QoQ). The beat was largely on account of lower P&F costs vs estimates, (Rs816/t, 0.6 % YoY, -14.6% QoQ vs 10 % QoQ jump estimated), most likely driven by use of low- cost clinker inventory (Rs 804 mn due to inventory changes).

Ambuja Cements (ACL) has reported a better-than-estimated operating performance in 4QCY16 on the back of healthy realization. EBITDA came in at Rs2.95bn way above our estimate of Rs2.23bn, while sales volume stood at 5.09mnT (-7.8% YoY +11.1% QoQ). Average realization/tonne rose by 1% YoY to Rs4,316 (-1.4% QoQ) vs. our estimate of Rs4,240. Higher composition of trade segment sales led to better than estimated realization. Despite 12% QoQ surge in power & fuel cost/tonne, operating cost/tonne broadly remained under control (+0.5% YoY and -1.1% QoQ) owing to sequential decline in freight cost/tonne and other expenditure/tonne. EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs579 vis--vis Rs551 and Rs603 in...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Ambuja Cement's results were broadly above our expectations. While revenues were below our estimate, EBITDA and PAT were above our estimates. Revenues declined 6.8% YoY to | 2,196.7 crore (vs. I-direct estimate of | 2,292.5 crore) led by 8.8% YoY decline in volumes to 5.0 MT(vs. I-direct estimate of 5.2 MT) due to liquidity crunch in retail segment while realisation increased 2.2% YoY to | 4,393 (vs. I-direct estimate of 4,381)...

Demonetization-led fall was a known narrative; ACEM's rapid adoption to cashless payment was another. Weak pricing in North and East had a say in the sequential trend. It is unclear what how the re-monetization phase will pan out. We suspect the operating efficiency to be limited. First, higher usage of alternative fuels and DMF provision-led lower cost should come to an end. Second, in the long-run, freight mix...

Ambuja Cement (ACEM) reported EBITDA/t at Rs 603/t (vs. estimate of Rs 875/t, flat YoY, -39.3% QoQ). This was driven by tepid volumes (4.6 mT, -6.5% YoY), flattish realizations (Rs 4,376/t, 2.3% YoY, 0.7% QoQ) and surging energy costs (Rs 955/t, -3.8% YoY, 19.5% QoQ). The energy costs are sharply higher due to higher pet-coke prices (up 2.5x from bottom in February) and will continue hardening.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Ambuja Cement's results were below our expectations. While revenues & EBITDA were below our estimate, PAT was above our expectations mainly led by higher other income. Revenues declined 4.3% YoY to | 2,004.2 crore (vs. I-direct estimate of | 2179.6 crore) mainly due to 6.6% dip in volumes to 4.5 MT (vs. I-direct estimate of 4.9 MT) while realisations were up 2.5% YoY to | 4454/tonne (vs. Idirect estimate: | 4477/tonne) due to better pricing scenario in north EBITDA margin was also lower at 13.8% (vs. I-direct estimate of...