Ambuja Cements Ltd. share price target

We attended the plant visit event organized by ACEM at its Marwar Mundwa plant in Rajasthan, where we interacted with the senior management team, followed by a tour of the plant.

Focus stays on capacity addition that will help achieve incremental market share aimed at ~18%/22% by FY28/FY30

The key highlights of ACEM’s FY25 annual report, the company’s consolidated cement capacity has risen to 100.3mtpa currently from 76.9mtpa in FY24-end, primarily led by inorganic growth.

Ambuja Cements put up a robust financial performance and crossed 100 million tons of cement capacity, becoming the 9th-largest cement company globally. With a strategic focus on growth, operational excellence, increasing market presence, strengthening ground network, improving efficiency and cost leadership, Ambuja is well-positioned to maintain its market leadership and achieve sustainable performance. The company's growth will be further supported by a strong...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Ambuja Cements (ACEM) delivered strong cons operating performance in Q4FY25 with 13% YoY volume growth (18.7mt aided by MSA and recently acquired assets). The recent uptick in cement pricing aided NSR. Increase in volumes resulted in lower operating costs delivering EBITDA/t of Rs999. Going forward, focus would remain on ramping up of Penna and Sanghi assets which...

Strong volume-driven revenue growth, as realisation stays soft 3% YoY due to aggressive push in key markets

Ambuja Cements (ACEM)’s 3QFY25 consolidated EBITDA (adjusted for prior period incentives of INR8.3b) declined ~49% YoY to INR8.9b (-35% vs. est.), due to weak realization and higher opex/t (up to INR100 150/t related to acquired assets that are in the transition and ramp-up phase). EBITDA/t declined 56% YoY to INR537 (est. INR848).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 601/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP

Volume-driven revenue growth as realisation weakens by 6.0% YoY due to weak demand in key markets

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Ambuja Cements (ACEM)’s 2QFY25 earnings beat estimates, led by highervolumes (4% above estimates) and higher incentive incomes.

Volume-driven revenue growth as realisation weakens by 6.5% YoY owing to weak demand in key markets

Ambuja Cements’ (ACEM; consol.) Q1FY25 EBITDA (at INR 12.8bn, down 23% YoY) missed our expectation by ~18% with lukewarm performance across – volumes, realisation and costs.