Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. share price target

Firing on All Cylinders; Wait for Better Entry Opportunity Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) has reported a phenomenal set of numbers in 3QFY18 surpassing ours as well as streets estimates on all operating parameters. Its net sales grew by 20.7% YoY to Rs8bn (vs. our estimate of Rs7.6bn), while EBITDA surged by 114% to Rs1.4bn (vs. our estimate of Rs1bn). Further, the Company's net profit zoomed by 231% YoY to Rs660mn, ahead of our estimate of Rs423mn. Key monitorable parameter of Same Store Sales (SSS) grew by 17.8% YoY, marking the highest growth in past 21 quarters, albeit on a lower base. Sharp outperformance on the back of higher-than-estimated SSS growth resulted in higher...

Our valuation multiple remains unchanged at 46x Dec-19E EPS, while our TP rises to Rs 2,662 (Rs 2,124 earlier) in line with the earnings upgrade. Maintain BUY. Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) reported a blowout quarter with revenue growth of 20.7% (Rs 7.95bn), significantly ahead of our estimate (16%). EBITDA/APAT grew 114/230% YoY, vs est 70/139%. EBITDA margin hit a 4-year high (17.2%). Strong SSG growth of 17.8% (-3.3% in 3QFY17 and 5.5% in 2QFY18) was driven mostly by volume and 6-7% price hike (Nov-17) post the GST rate revision. Co has seen a strong consumer response on new offerings.

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Q3FY18 results comment Revenue rose by 9.43% to Rs. 795.17 Cr in Q3FY18 when compared to the previous quarter

JUBI's net sales grew 20.7% YoY to INR8b (est. of INR7.5b) in 3QFY18. EBITDA grew 113.7% YoY to INR1.4b (est. of INR895m), while a dj. PAT increased230.6% YoY to INR660m (est. of INR330m). SSS grew 17.8% (est. of +10%) for the quarter.JUBI opened three and closed one Domino's store in 3QFY18. Gross margin shrunk 100bp YoY to 74.5%. However, EBITDA margin expanded sharply by 770bp YoY to 17.2%, led by lower other expenses (-310bp YoY to31%), staff costs (-310bp YoY to 23.1%) and rent costs (-130bp YoY to 11.1%). Concall highlights: 1) There is still no gain of share from unorganized players, as GST rates have reduced from 18% to 5%. 2 ) Growth was led by base effect,GST impact and the company's own initiatives. However, it is yet to see any strong up move in consumer sentiment. 3) JUBI will add 30 stores in FY18

We increase our EBITA margin estimates to 12.6%/14.1% in FY18E/19E led by sharp recovery in SSG, reduction in losses at Dunkin as the company is recalibrating its strategy and benefits of cost management programs. We upgrade our rating to HOLD from REDUCE as we expect strong performance to continue going forward led by recovery in SSG, strong free...

Net sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT grew 9%, 59% and 125% vs. consensus expectation of 9%, 24% and 21%. Domino's SSSg stood at 5.5% YoY and 7% QoQ. Gross margin declined 66 bps YoY but OPM was up 440 bps YoY at 14.1%, aided by cost saving initiatives and reduction in Dunkin losses (to break-even by FY1..

We value it at 46x P/E on Sep-19EPS, to arrive at a TP of Rs 1,848 (Rs 1,635 earlier). We maintain BUY. Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) registered net revenue growth of 9.2% at Rs 7.3bn in 2QFY18, lower than our expectation of 12%. EBITDA and APAT increased by 59% and 106% YoY, respectively. Since the new CEO came on board, JFLs strategy has been focussing on profitable store expansion, as against a focus on aggressive store expansion.

JFL's gross margins declined 70bps YoY to 74.1%. Despite rise in the prices of key inputs and higher cheese content in Pizzas, JFL was able to restrict the fall in margins owing to lower discounting and availing of input tax credits. Sharp focus on cost containment coupled with no major store addition resulted in fall in other cost heads i.e. rent (-90bps YoY), employee (-100bps...

JUBI's net sales grew by 9.2% YoY to INR7.3b, EBITDA by 59% YoY to INR1b (est. of INR677m) and adj. PAT by 124.8% YoY to INR485m (est. of INR215m) in 2QFY18. SSS grew 5.5% (est. of +6%) for the quarter. JUBI opened one Domino's store and closed one store in the quarter. Gross margin contracted 70bp YoY to 74.1%. EBITDA margin expanded 440bp YoY to 14.1%, led by sharply lower other expenses (-310bp YoY), staff costs (100bp YoY) and rent costs (-90bp YoY). Concall highlights: 1) Healthy growth witnessed after product refresh in August. 2) Management clarified that it is unlikely to take any price increase...

Revenue grew by 10.78% to Rs. 678.82 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Revenue grew by 10.78% to Rs. 678.82 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter.