JSW Steel Ltd. share price target

JSW Steel (JSTL) is on track to achieve a capacity of 50mpta by FY31, aided by multiple expansion projects. The 5mtpa Vijayanagar expansion was completed in 3QFY25, taking its total India capacity to 34mtpa.

JSTL reported consolidated revenue of INR414b (-1% YoY and +4% QoQ) in 3QFY25, largely in line with our estimate of INR421b. ASP declined 12% YoY and 5% QoQ to INR61,666/t, which was offset by strong volume growth of 12% YoY and 10% QoQ to 6.71mt.

Q2 results was better than weak expectations, supported by lower loss on iron ore and inventory valuation. Imports had a significant impact

The domestic steel demand is expected to be robust, driven by significant capex toward infrastructure development. The capacity expansion of JSW Steel (JSTL) is on track, positioning it well to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Q1 consolidated operating profit of Rs. 5,510 crore (down 10% q-o-q) was impacted by the inventory
write offs because of decrease in steel price and planned maintenance shutdown in India.

Q1 EBITDA was below consensus and down sequentially on lower volumes and flat margins despite lower coking coal costs

JSTL’s Q1FY25 EBITDA of INR 55.1bn, declined 22% YoY/10% QoQ due to lower realisation and adverse operating leverage.

JSW Steel (JSTL) posted a consolidated revenue of INR463b (-2% YoY/
+10% QoQ; in line) in 4QFY24. ASP stood at INR68,750/t (-4% YoY/-2%
QoQ) vs. our est. of INR67,507/t

JSW Steel’s (JSTL) Q4FY24 performance met Street’s estimates, but was slightly ahead of ours. Key points: 1) Standalone EBITDA at INR 7,807/te was slightly below our estimate of INR 8,033, though sales volume was inline. 2) Subsidiaries, particularly JSW Coated showed significant improvement in EBITDA.