JSW Steel Ltd. share price target

JSW Steel's reported Q1FY27 earnings above our estimates. Revenue declined by 8% QoQ, as a 13% QoQ fall in sales volume due to seasonal weakness was partly offset by a 6% QoQ increase in NSR driven by higher steel prices. EBITDA increased 9% QoQ to Rs94bn, while EBITDA/t improved by 23% QoQ to Rs 15,013/t, supported by higher realisation and lower iron ore costs partly offset by higher coking coal costs. JSW completed BF3 expansion from 3MTPA to 4.5MTPA in Jun'26 and expects volumes to recover in Q2FY27...

JSW Steel’s consolidated production volume (adj. to BPSL), which improved 3.3% y/y and 1.7% q/q to 6.59m tonne in Q1FY27, is expected to improve further in Q2 FY27, driven by volume ramp-up from BF-3 expansion at Vijayanagar and improvement in operations at Ohio, especially in API grades.

As BPSL has been de-consolidated w.e.f Mar’26 end, past reported financials are not comparable to 1Q FY27. Comparing with the proforma performance (ex-BPSL) of past quarters, the 1QFY27 revenue stood at INR473b growing 19% YoY and 2% QoQ.

*over or under performance to benchmark index JSW Steel Limited (JSW Steel) is an integrated steel producer that makes products such as hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils, wire rods and galvanised coils and sheets. It...

JSW Steel (JSTL), with an existing capacity of 32MTPA (excluding JVs), is targeting to reach a capacity of 50MTPA by FY31. Following the BPSL transaction, its balance sheet is much more comfortable, providing greater flexibility to execute its planned expansions.

JSTL announced JVML phase 2 capacity expansion of 5mtpa with INR260bn capex by FY30E. Growth capex of INR1,260bn over next 4-5 years, with additional ~INR80-1,000bn likely till FY33E including JVs. JSW Steel reported strong operating performance in Q4FY26 led by sharp recovery in steel prices, healthy domestic demand and continued ramp-up at JVML. Cons. volumes grew 6% YoY to 7.97mt despite 3mtpa BF-3 shutdown at Vijayanagar, aided by strong domestic demand and higher exports from India (+36% YoY). Average cons. NSR...

Profitability outlook remains strengthen amid firm steel prices: JSW Steel's standalone EBITDA improved from 7.4k/ton to 9.7k/ton in Q4'26, primarily driven by safeguard duty-induced higher domestic steel prices, with NSR rising by ~3,800/ton in Q4'26, offsetting elevated raw material costs (coking coal up ~US$16/ton QoQ in Q4'26). Going forward, JSW expected to see further realisation gains in Q1'27 supported by firm domestic steel prices, although higher coking coal cost (up ~US$12-15/ton QoQ) partly offset these benefits. Nonetheless, EBITDA/tonne at JSW steel...

JSW Steel's Q4FY26 performance was above our estimates. Revenue increased 11% QoQ, driven by 4% QoQ volume growth and a 6% QoQ increase in NSR due to higher steel prices. EBITDA increased 33% QoQ to Rs86bn, while EBITDA/t improved by 27% QoQ to Rs 10,833/t, as realisation gains offset higher coking coal costs. Management aims to achieve production/sales volume of 29.75/28.6 mn tonnes in FY27 and expects to incur capex of Rs220-240bn and Rs1,260bn over the next 4-5 years. JSW aims for 50.3mn tonnes capacity by FY31 and 63.5mn tonnes by FY32. BPSL slump sale resulted in strong balance sheet deleveraging,...

JSW Steel (JSTL) has outlined a structured expansion roadmap targeting ~56MTPA crude steel capacity by FY31 (India ex-BPSL: 50MTPA). The 5MTPA integrated steel plant at Jagatsinghpur (Odisha) remains the cornerstone project, comprising BF, SMS, and HSM (900–2,150mm) with ~350MW CPP.

JSW Steel's Q3FY26 performance was above our estimates. Revenue increased by 2% QoQ, driven by 4% volume growth as Dolvi, JVML and BPSL capacities ramped up. NSR decreased 3% QoQ, owing to a decline in steel prices. EBITDA decreased by 9% QoQ to Rs65bn, while EBITDA per tonne fell by 12% QoQ to Rs 8,503/t, driven by lower realization, $5/t increase in coking coal costs, partially offset by savings in power costs. Management expects HRC prices to improve further driven by strong seasonal demand. JSW announced a 5MTPA steel plant in Odisha with a capex of Rs316bn with commissioning expected by FY30 and...

JSW Steel (JSTL) posted in-line consolidated revenue of INR460b (+11% YoY and +2% QoQ) in 3QFY26, mainly on account of strong volume, which was partially offset by muted NSR.

Current Steel Capacity: India- 34.2 million Ton (MT) & US- 1.5 MT Q3FY26 Results: JSW Steel reported a steady performance in Q3FY26. Consolidated topline stood 45,991 crore (up 11% YoY) with steel sales volume of 7.42 MT (up 14% YoY). Reported EBITDA stood at 6,496 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 14% (down ~163 bps QoQ). Standalone EBITDA/tonne stood at...

Current Steel Capacity: India- 34.2 million Ton (MT) & US- 1.5 MT Key Event Update: JSW Steel has announced that it has entered into a strategic 50:50 joint venture with Japan's JFE Steel Corporation. As part of this arrangement, Bhushan Power and Steel Ltd (BPSL), currently owned by JSW Steel, will be transferred into the new joint venture entity. JFE Steel will acquire a 50% stake for...

On Dec 3rd, JSTL announced a strategic restructuring of the Bhushan Power and Steel Limited (BPSL) unit. As part of the transaction, BPSL (the step-down subsidiary of JSTL) will be transferred to JSW Sambalpur via a slump sale for a cash consideration of INR244.8b.

Consolidated EBITDA grew 30.9% YoY to Rs. 7,115cr, with EBITDA margin expanding 210bps to 15.8%, on the back of a favourable product mix and reduced operating costs due to improved operational efficiencies. Profit after tax increased more than fourfold to Rs. 1,646cr, aided by topline growth and an 64% YoY increase in other operating income. JSW Steel reported a strong performance in the quarter despite global uncertainties and a prolonged monsoon. The company is optimistic about a strong performance in the second half of this financial year, driven by rising steel prices and production. JSW has ramped up its production capacity, which is expected to support growth. The outlook for India's steel consumption remains robust, driven by supportive...

JSW Steel's Q2FY26 performance was broadly in line with our estimates. Revenue increased by 5% QoQ, driven by 10% volume growth as Dolvi, JVML and BPSL capacities ramped up. NSR decreased 4% QoQ, owing to a decline in steel prices. EBITDA decreased by 6% QoQ to Rs71bn, while EBITDA per tonne fell by 14% QoQ to Rs 9,693/t, driven by lower realization, partly offset by $6 savings in coking coal costs, savings in power costs and higher volumes. Management expects a recovery in steel prices in Nov-Dec'25 as they trade below the import price parity. JSW has announced two section mills to produce...

Q2 results were better than expectation, due to strong volume growth and lower costs, despite subdued realisation

JSW Steel's Q1FY26 performance was broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue declined 4% QoQ due to 11% QoQ decline in volumes, driven by planned shutdown and seasonality. NSR increased 7% QoQ, led by higher steel prices. EBITDA increased by (19%/37%) QoQ/YoY to Rs75bn, while EBITDA per tonne rose by (33%/26%) QoQ/YoY to Rs 11,324/t, driven by higher steel prices and lower input costs, despite a drag of Rs3.43bn on account of MTM forex loss on euro currency loans. Management expects a recovery in volumes and EBITDA in Q2, backed by higher capacity utilizations, improved demand, and absence of...

JSTL incurred M2M forex loss of Rs3.4bn on Euro loans due to sharp Euro appreciation and another Rs2bn costs due to plant shutdown in Q1FY26. JSW Steel (JSTL) reported strong cons operating performance led by higher steel pricing. Cons volume grew 9.3% YoY aided by the ramping up of 5mtpa JVML capacity and strong domestic demand. Average cons NSR improved 7% QoQ on higher steel pricing across the regions. Decline in coking coal consumption cost by USD14/t was negated by higher shutdown costs, enabling...

JSTL reported consolidated revenue of INR432b (flat YoY and -4% QoQ), in line with our estimate of INR429b, as healthy NSR was offset by weak QoQ volume growth.