Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd. share price target

Consol. revenue declined 14% YoY (-12% QoQ) to INR2b (16% miss). Ad revenue fell 15% YoY to INR1.5b, primarily due to a high base (4QFY17 ??? due to UP elections). Circulation revenue was down 11% YoY to INR0.5b, mainly due to lower yields. Consol. EBITDA fell 54% YoY to INR264m (59% miss), with the margin down 11.1pp YoY to 13.1%. Yet, PAT fell by a meager 5% YoY (-18% QoQ) to INR403m (27% miss), aided by a 54% YoY jump in other income. For FY18, revenue/EBITDA declined 6%/12% to INR8.8b/INR1.8b (4%/18% miss), while PAT fell 8% to INR1.8b (8% miss).

HMVL is a 75% subsidiary of HT Media Ltd., the publisher of Hindustan Times and Mint. As of now, Hindustan' is the second-largest selling daily newspaper in India (across languages), and a leader by a wide margin in the...

3QFY18revenue came in flat YoY (9% QoQ) at INR2.3b (in line v/s est. of INR2.35b), despite a low base (3QFY17 was impacted by demonetization), largely due to (i) shift of Diwali ad spends to 2Q this year and (ii) lackluster local ad spend due to GST-related uncertainty. EBITDA increased 43% YoY (+29% QoQ) to INR583m (est. of INR439m), as 3QFY17 included high one-off expense related to HT Digital hive-off. EBITDA margin expanded 760bp YoY to 25.3%. PAT rose 12%/20% YoY/QoQ (at a slower rate than EBITDA) to INR493m on a high tax rate. Ad spend recovered partly from the FMCG, auto, banking and finance sectors, while real estate and government were laggards (overall ad growth was 4%, of which 3% was contributed by volumes and 1% by yield). Circulation segment, on the contrary, witnessed a steep 14% revenue decline, though HMVL stated it maintained market share in UP and Bihar.

GST-linked transition pangs and a well spread-out festive season affected Advertisement revenue growth while lower cover price in UP and Bihar continued to dent circulation revenue. EBITDA improvement was backed by cost rationalization measures. Ad revenue increase of 5% yoy was driven by yield improvement (2%) and volume growth (3%). Continued impact of GST transition, RERA and muted spends from government...

GST led transition affected Advertising growth while competitive intensity in core markets dented Circulation revenue growth. EBITDA decline was restricted to 10% yoy owing to strict cost-control initiatives. Total expenditure was 10% lower than our estimate. Ad revenue decline of 8% yoy was led by 20% yoy drop in UP on account of a higher base. Bihar and Jharkhand recorded marginal growth. Ad volume was down 12% yoy while yield...

EBITDA margin shrunk 50bp YoY (flat QoQ) to 21.5% (50bp above est. of 21%). PAT plunged 25% YoY (-9% QoQ) to INR409m (est. of INR445m). High base, GST pull down ad business: Ad revenue declined 8% YoY to INR1.6b (est. of INR1.7b), mainly led by ~12% YoY volume decline due to GST, RERA and a high base (UP elections last year). The strategy to boost yield saw the largest impact on FMCG, health and fitness segment, partly offset by a 5% yield improvement led by resurgence in Auto, BFSI and other sectors. Circulation revenue growth on a freefall: Circulation revenue continued to...

Impact of Demonetisation Led to Drop in Ad Volumes Duringthe Quarter; Outlook Continues to Remain Positive HMVLs revenue witnessed a drop of -4.2% to Rs.2303 Mn in Q3FY17 fromRs.2404 Mn in Q3FY16 mainly on account of the effect of demonetisation. The ad revenues dropped to the tune of -7.0% to Rs.1688 Mn in Q3FY17 fromRs.1816 Mn in Q3FY16 mainly due to the decrease in the ad volumes, however circulation revenue witnessed a growth of 4.3% during the quarter to Rs. 561 Mnfrom Rs. 538 Mn in Q3FY16. EBITDA during the quarter decreased by -32.2% to Rs.409 Mn from Rs.604 Mn in Q3FY16, mainly on account of increase in the otherexpenses due to the scheme of transfer of Multi-Media Content Management to the HDTSL (HT Digital Streams Ltd) on slump exchange basis.

BUY Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd between Rs. 275 - 252 for the target of Rs. 315 - 360

in the last 13 quarters. Circulation revenue continues to be impacted by the entry of DB CorpintheBiharmarket.Newsprintpricesinchedupinthecurrentquarter(duetoincrease inenergycosts),whichresultedinamissongrossmargins.However,EBITDAwasaheadof estimatesduetolowerthanestimatedemployeeexpenditure.PATgrowthof17%yoywas...

Reduced spending by select advertisers dents ad growth; PAT up 17% Ad rebound likely in 2H given UP elections/festive season; Maintain EPS estimates EBITDA largely in line, aided by lower employee/SG&A; expenses: Hindustan Media Ventures' (HMVL) 1QFY17 EBITDA grew 4.4% YoY to INR569m (largely in line with our estimate of INR561m) as lower-than-expected employee/SG&A; costs offset the impact of higher-than-expected RM costs. PAT of INR487m (+17% YoY) exceeded our estimate of INR469m, largely led by lower-than-expected...

now. Newsprint prices inched up in the current quarter (due to increase in energy cost) whichresultedinmissongrossmargins.Therefore,EBITDAmissedourestimatesby3%and marginswere115bpsbelowourestimates.HoweverPATgrowthof21%yoywasaheadof...

For 3QFY2016, Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) reported earnings above our estimates. The top-line growth was healthy with strong growth in advertising and circulation revenue. Advertising revenue growth for the quarter was strong due to festive season and state elections in Bihar. On the operating front too, the companys performance was strong, which in turn led to a higher PAT growth. Strong growth in ad and circulation revenue: HMVL registered a growth of ~19% yoy in advertising revenue to ~Rs181cr. This was on back of the festive season that fuelled advertising spends across most sectors, state elections in Bihar, as well as internal initiatives. Further, the company reported a ~6% yoy growth in circulation revenue to Rs54cr on back of higher circulation volume as well as realization per copy. Higher PAT on back of strong operating performance: The company reported a strong PAT growth of ~28% yoy on the back of a strong operating performance. The operating performance was strong on account of lower cost of news print which is a key raw material for HMVL. Outlook and valuation: Going forward, we believe that the company would perform well, both on the top-line and bottom-line fronts, on back of strong...

HMVL posted strong top line growth of 13.7% above our estimates of 9.0%,mainly boosted by advertisement revenues which grew by 18.0% and circulation revenues grew by 7.6%. Bihar election revenues & pricing initiatives have helped the company to post strong ad revenues. Q3FY16E is expected to be strong on the back of festive season and pick-up in ad spends by automobile and banking sectors which are seeing uptick in the recent quarter after sluggish quarters.

Ad revenue growth higher than estimate on higher ad revenue growth in UP (+20% yoy) and Bihar (+25% yoy). Bihar market saw robust growth due to pre-election government ad spend. UP market grew due to robust ad-yield growth....

UP & Uttarakhand (UK) to act as growth drivers for HMVL: HMVL's readership in UP & UK grew at strong CAGR growth of 26% from 2.5 mn in 2009 to 8.1 mn in 2014 and entered into 2nd spot in UP following Dainik Jagran. With HMVL moving to 2nd spot in UP, which is the largest market for advertising industry with size of Rs.12 Bn, HMVL has started to increase the advertisement rates charged to companies.