Hero MotoCorp Ltd. share price target

We continue to prefer Hero MotoCorp Ltd on the back of robust rural & semi urban demand, downtrading trend and preference for entry level motorcycles (Hero being the market leader), along with a shift in preference for Personal mobility.

We are initiating coverage on Hero Motocorp Ltd (Hero) with a BUY rating and a Target Price of Rs 3,450, which implies ~10% upside from the current levels.

Retail sales have been consistently improving on m-o-m basis. Early August trends also indicate improvement over July levels. Inventory is lower than normalised levels and Hero is ramping up...

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is India's leading two-wheeler manufacturer in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. It holds nearly 50% of the market share in the Indian motorcycle market. The company has eight...

Hero MotoCorp reports 92% drop in Q1 PAT, misses estimates On a consolidated basis, the two-wheeler maker's net profit tumbled 95.3% to Rs 59.14 crore on a 63.7% decline in net sales to Rs 2,969.08 crore in Q1 FY21 over Q1 FY20. EBITDA fell 90.7% to Rs 108 crore in Q1 June 2020 from Rs 1,158 crore in Q1 June 2019. EBITDA margin was at 3.6% as on 30 June 2020 as compared to 14.4% as on 30 June 2019. Profit before tax in the June quarter stood at Rs 79.49 crore, down by 95.8% from Rs 1873.83...

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) Q1FY21 result was above our estimates on all parameters. Revenue was higher than our estimates on account of higher realisation while EBITDA stood at Rs1.08bn vs our estimated loss of Rs1.5bn due to substantially lower operating expenses. We believe lower COVID cases in rural areas, strong rural/semi urban economy, timely monsoon and preponement of affordable personal mobility has been in favour for HMCL in these tough times. However we are also seeing urban pocket to remain under pressure due to pandemic outbreak, negative sentiment and higher unemployment which would impact HMCL urban sales. We expect consumer spending...

Retail sales have been consistently improving on m-o-m basis. Early August trends also indicate improvement over July levels. Inventory is lower than normalised levels and Hero is ramping up...

While 1QFY21 PAT was weak at Rs 613mn (-90% YoY), the management highlighted that demand is back to pre-COVID level in 2QFY21. Hero has gained market share in the quarter, led by rising demand in rural/semi-urban markets and ramp-up in production. The OEM's foray into the premium segment has got off to an encouraging start, and it is targeting double-digit market share in it. We reiterate BUY (please see our recent note: 'Xtreme'...

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) delivered a Q1FY21 revenue beat but disappointed on earnings due to lower operating efficiencies.

HMCL remains our preferred play in autos on domestic demand revival led by increasing preference towards personal mobility due to safety needs and pick up in rural volume. Strong product portfolio in entry and executive segments with more than 60% shares, deep rural/semirural network reach (rural contributes to 50% volume), and strong supply chain management are key positives. We recognize the company's efforts to increase its overall market share (+500bps YoY to 41.6%) in 2W space. The company preempted pent-up demand after lockdown and readies operations to meet the same. As supply situation is much better compared to its...