Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. share price target

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q3FY18 result was completely in line with our expectation where volume was a tad higher than our estimate. Revenue increased 31.3% YoY to Rs3.5 bn led by strong volume growth and flattish implied tariff. Volume grew 27.7% YoY to 33.5mmscmd due to incremental demand from RIL for its new projects while tariff increased 2.6% YoY to Rs1.12/scm. We are keeping our estimates unchanged and introducing FY20 numbers and we expect its EBITDA/PAT to see a CAGR of 9%/13% during FY17-20E.We roll over our valuation to FY20 gives a new TP of Rs212 from Rs204. Maintain HOLD....

EBITDA below estimate; in-line transmission volumes Reported revenue rose 31% YoY (+5% QoQ) to INR3.5b, falling short of our estimate of INR3.8b, primarily due to lower implied tariffs. EBITDA of INR2.97b (+31% YoY, +4% QoQ) was below our estimate of INR3.3b due to higher O&M expenses of INR137/mscm (+33% YoY, +11% QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR1.8b (est. of INR1.9b, +53% YoY, +2% QoQ) - the difference at PAT level declined due to a lower tax rate of 30% (est. of 34.3%; 32.1% in 2QFY18 and 34.9% in 3QFY17).In-line transmission volumes; lower implied tariff Transmission volume grew 28% YoY (+6% QoQ) to 33.5mmscmd (in-line) in 3QFY18, which is believed to be led by higher off take from the power sector. Implied transmission tariff stood at INR1,123/mscm (est. of INR1,200; +3% YoY, +1% QoQ).

GSPL being a pure natural gas transporter does not own the gas at any point in time thereby negating the risk of the fluctuations in the natural gas prices. Tariff hike is expected in Q4FY18. Gujarat accounts for nearly 40% of India's gas consumption and we expect this trend to continue. With the increase in gas supply through...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) reported its Q2FY18 results, which were above our estimates on the topline and profitability front. Revenues increased 29.8% YoY to | 334.8 crore above our estimate of | 316.5 crore mainly on account of higher than estimated volumes Gas transmission volumes increased 28.2% YoY to 31.6 mmscmd (our estimate: 28.5 mmscmd). Transmission tariffs were at | 1.1/scm, marginally below our estimate of | 1.15/scm. EBITDA increased...

Gas transmission volume rose 7% YoY at 26.9 mmscmd in Q1FY18 due to higher gas off-take from RIL's refinery and Torrent Power. Volume is likely to remain firm through FY18, as RIL starts its RoGC# project (gas consumer)

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) reported its Q1FY18 results, which were above our estimates on all fronts. Revenues increased 14.8% YoY to | 296.3 crore above our estimate of | 265.3 crore mainly on account of higher than estimated volumes and transmission tariffs Gas transmission volumes increased 7.2% YoY to 26.9 mmscmd (our estimate: 26 mmscmd). Transmission tariffs increased 7.9% YoY to | 1.2/scm above our estimate of | 1.1/scm. EBITDA increased 18.3%...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) result was above expectation on the back of higher than expectation volume and realization both. Revenue increased 14.8% YoY to Rs2,963 mn, EBITDA increased 18.3% toRs2.8 bn while PAT grew 25.8% to Rs1.5 bn. Volume expanded to 26.9mmscmd while implied tariff stood at Rs1.15/scm compared to Rs1.07/scm. We expect volume may remain strong in near term due to test run of RIL's few key projects. However, volume loss due to RIL's Petcoke Gasification plant would be a key overhang in FY19. The company acquired 11% stake in Swan LNG which would aid growth to its...

GSPL's Q4 gas transmission volume declined 11% QoQ to 23.4 mmscmd due to temporary unavailability of RasGas for few days. Volume will recover sharply from Q2FY18 as RIL starts its gas cracker (RoGC) project.

The net sales of the company for Q4FY17 at Rs 2446 mn, growth of 5.5% YoY. On QoQ basis, the sales declined by 8.3% mainly due to lower volumes. EBITDA declined by 1.6% YoY and 11.5% QoQ to Rs.2013 mn. Higher other income, coupled with lower finance cost and lower tax rate helped the company report healthy profit growth of 27.7% YoY and 7.1% QoQ. Accordingly, the PAT margins improved to 52.5% as compared to 44.5% in Q3FY17 and 42.9% in Q4FY16.

Revenue decreased by 8.31% to Rs. 244.63 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.