The 20 reports from 9 analysts offering long term price targets
for Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. have an average target of 289.50. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 40.74%
from the last price of 205.70.
Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported volumes of ~40mmscmd in 2QFY21, taking the company to near full capacity levels of ~42mmscmd. We discussed volume growth avenues both immediate and for the future with the management. The following are key insights from the same: GUJS has installed an additional compressor, which facilitated pipeline capacity expansion by ~10%, thus taking total pipeline capacity to ~46mmscmd. While GUJGA stated during its recent earnings that volumes are higher than its 2QFY21 average, the benefits have also accrued to GUJS, which is currently...
GSPL's 2QFY21 standalone result was a marginal miss 2.5%/1.4% vs NB estimate of revenue/standalone PAT. The YoY trend however is a dip of 6.5%40% in revenue/PAT. Revenue came in at Rs4.96bn, net of gas transmission charges. EBITDA was down 12.9% YoY and 6.8% below NBIE estimate. We remain positive on GSPL's future prospects, especially from FY22. Key catalysts: (i) incremental supplies of 5-7mmscmd from the Mundra LNG terminal and (ii) additional volume of 7-14mmscmd from Swan Energy's LNG terminal, which is likely to start by 2QFY22. The completion of Mehsana-Bhatinda gas pipeline by GSPL's 52% JV GIGL by the end of March 2021 is also positive for GSPL's...
Due to NGT's 6Mar'19 order to ban the use of coal gasifiers in Morbi region, spurted Gujarat Gas volumes from its industrial belt of Morbi in the previous quarters, however with industrial units starting up and sales reaching 100% Pre Covid levels, volumes from CGD business have revived. We expect GSPL's transmission volumes to increase from H2FY21 from Gujarat Gas volumes, other CGD projects and power sector. Volumes which was subdued from CGD segment in Q1FY21 because of lower...
Government of Gujarat has always played a pro-active role in the development of the energy value chain. Gujarat is first state to plan and execute a State-wide Gas Grid on an Open Access Principle and the pipeline grid has been designed as per the highest international standards with inbuilt flexibility to cater to varying loads. GSPL has CrossCountry Natural Gas Transmission pipelines being implemented. GSPL owns and operates the largest Gas Transmission network in Gujarat...
12 August 2020 Overall, Gujarat is expected to have an available capacity of 40mmtpa over the next 2-3 years, up 54% from now. HPCL-Shapoorji is expected to complete its 5mmtpa LNG terminal at Chhara in another 2-3 years. current ~1.5mmtpa) once the Anjar-Chotila pipeline capacity is augmented. The company currently has pipeline capacity of ~42mmscmd. executing partial stretches of Mehsana-Bhatinda (340km) and Mallavaram- Bhilwara (364km) pipelines. Both have capacity of 76-77mmscmd and would enable evacuation of gas from upcoming LNG terminals. GUJS is already transporting ~40-42mmscmd of gas. Even if the last mile pipeline connectivity of Chhara and Swan is executed by other companies, Gujarat State Petronet GUJS has moved to the lower tax rate. As a result, the regulator might cut its tariffs by 10-12% to maintain regulated RoCEs. Additionally, GUJS has two pipeline grids High Pressure (HP) and Low Pressure (LP) with their economic lifetime being defined as 2026 and 2025, respectively.
Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) operating revenue for Q1FY21 fell 9.4% YoY to | 464.4 crore on account of a fall in transmission volumes. Transmission volumes fell 13% YoY to 33.3 mmscmd mainly due to lower CGD offtake. EBITDA came in at | 346.2 crore, down 13.9% YoY. Subsequently, PAT was...
PNGRB opens debate on unified tariff for gas pipelines PNGRB had issued a public notice regarding proposed changes in the Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff Regulations called the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (Determination of Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff) Regulations, 2008 (NGPL Tariff Regulations). The deadline for public comments is July 26, 2020 and the open house through video conferencing is scheduled for July 31, 2020. This seeks to discuss the concept of a single or unified tariff on the integrated natural gas pipeline system run by GAIL and GSPL covering all their authorised pipelines as detailed in Exhibit: 2 on page 2. The proposal seeks to apply this...
Ramp up in gas supply to aid long term growth NBIE Values your patronage- Vote for The Team in the Asia Money poll 2020. Click Here GSPL's 4QFY20 standalone results look good with 13.3%/47.1% growth YoY in volume/PAT despite the marginal miss vs our and consensus estimates. Revenue beat NBIE est. and consensus estimate by 19.4%/5.8%, respectively at Rs5.95bn on the back of higher than expected interconnectivity charges. But EBITDA was a close miss vs. NBIE est. and consensus estimate by -3.7%/-4% at Rs3.56bn. PAT was a beat vs. NBIE est. and consensus estimate by...
(growth of 13.5% YoY and flat sequentially) in line with our estimates of 37 mmscmd. Tariffs were at Rs 1.75/scm (growth of 20% YoY and degrowth of 3.8% QoQ). Revenue was in line with our estimates. Strong volumes clocked in due to...
8 June 2020 Lower-than-expected volumes and implied tariff led to an EBITDA miss, while lower tax rate helped GSPLs PAT (in-line) during 4QFY20. The QoQ volume decline was primarily led by lower gas offtake from various fertilizer and refining/petchem units due to the nationwide COVID-19 led lockdowns. Despite the COVID-19 impact, FY20 transmission volumes were up 9% YoY to 37.8mmscmd with implied tariff at INR1,379/scm (v/s INR1,455/scm in FY19). There are concerns over tariff reduction for the company, in line with the revised new tax rate and over-utilization of the pipeline. However, the increase in capex (due to capacity expansion) should ensure lesser impact on its tariff. Transmission volume for the quarter stood at 36.8mmscmd (-6% est. +14% YoY), with Implied tariff at INR1,284/scm (-8% est. -12% YoY). Thus, net sales came in at INR4.4b (+1% YoY) and EBITDA at INR3.6b (+8% YoY), both lower than est.
We maintain Buy on GSPL with a reduced target price (TP) of Rs273 (+65.7% from CMP) as one of our top mid-cap Oil & Gas picks as we believe its gas transportation business is relatively more resilient and is likely to bounce back once the current nationwide lockdown in the fight against COVID 19 is behind us. We have cut our FY20-22E estimates by 3.8%/12.8%/1% and our SOTP-based TP by 12.7% based on volume assumptions tempered for the twin impact of COVID19 and the economic slowdown. Key risks: Disruption to supplies of LNG cargo arrivals and domestic gas- Pl see extract of news from S&PGlobal.com; at the end of the report; curtailment of gas purchases by customers, especially in small industrial segments and city...
We maintain our conviction on GSPL based on (1) Stable volume growth (+5% CAGR over FY20-22E to 42.5mmscmd) (2) Smoothening of cyclicality in its earnings, post acquisition of a controlling stake in Gujarat Gas (3) Steady cash flows (FCF of Rs 32.80bn over FY20-23E) from transmission business that will turn the company's position to a net cash one. We value the transmission business using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) at Rs 138/sh (WACC of 10.5% and Terminal growth rate of 0%). To this, we add Rs 115/sh as value of its investments in Gujarat Gas, Sabarmati Gas and other investments to arrive at the target price of Rs 253/sh. We maintain BUY on GSPL though the Q3 PAT missed our estimates. Benign spot LNG prices will continue to (1) Drive volume growth from industrial customers and (2) Encourage RIL to continue using LNG. Our EPS estimates for FY20/21/22E stand at Rs 17.3/19.7/21.3 vs consensus EPS of Rs 28.1/25.7/23.7. Our SOTP based TP is Rs 253/share (consensus TP Rs 272).
GSPL's 3QFY20 standalone results look good with 7.2%/28% growth YoY in volume/PAT despite the marginal miss vs our and street estimates. Revenue beat NBIE est. and consensus estimate by 11.8%/18.9%, respectively at Rs6.3bn. But EBITDA was a miss vs. NBIE est. and consensus estimate by 5%/5.8% at Rs3.8bn. PAT was also a miss vs. NBIE est. and consensus estimate by 6.5%/10.8% at Rs2.2bn. Overall the results still show good traction on volume and earnings. In our post-result call we gathered from the management that incremental supplies of 5-8mmscmd from the recently started Mundra LNG terminal and low gas prices are positive for GSPL's growth prospects in the next year. We have marginally raised our FY20-22E estimates and our...
13 February 2020 Higher-than-expected volume offset the lower implied transmission tariff and led to in-line EBITDA in 3QFY20. The QoQ decline in volume was primarily led by the refinery/petrochemical segments. We expect low LNG prices to spurt demand, especially from the power segment post monsoon. The company is a direct beneficiary of the upcoming LNG terminals in Gujarat and the renewed focus on reducing industrial pollution. GUJS reported in-line EBITDA of INR3.8b (3% miss; +8% YoY, -13% QoQ) as higher-than-expected transmission volume of 36.9mmscmd offset the lower implied tariff. Implied tariff declined from INR1,420/mscm in 3QFY19 and INR1,461/mscm in 2QFY20 to INR1,331/mscm in the quarter. PAT of INR2.2b was in line with our estimate (+28% YoY, -51% QoQ). The company had written back tax in the previous quarter as it moved to the new lower tax regime. Consumption from the refinery/petrochem segment continued to be the highest at 32% but slid from 12.9mmscmd in 2QFY20 to 11.8mmscmd in the quarter.
Gujarat State Petronet ltd. (GSPL) is the second largest natural gas pipeline operator and gas transporter after GAIL with 2621kms of gas network in Gujarat handling volume of 38mmscmd (Million Metric Standard Cubic Meter per Day). This ensures annuity earnings based on fixed transmission tariffs given steady volume for gas...
Gujarat State Petronet is primarily engaged in transmission of natural gas through pipeline on an open access basis from supply points to demand centers.
We initiate coverage on Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) with a Buy and SOTP-based target price (TP) of Rs303 (39.8% upside from CMP, including the value of its stake in Gujarat Gas Ltd. Key catalysts are: (i) GSPL's expansion of its statewide gas grid in India's gas hub Gujarat and foray into the northern markets through its new Mehsana Bhatinda- Srinagar pipeline - MBPL (ii) huge leverage to likely surge in new gas supplies from KG basin as well as imports (iii) healthy free cash flows and (iv) compelling valuation. GSPL, India's second largest gas transmission company, is now setting its eyes on pan-India growth. We expect 6% CAGR in transmission business volume based on ongoing network expansion in Gujarat and proposed last mile links...
