Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

MGL’s Q4FY25 SA adj EBITDA/APAT of Rs3.2/2.1bn missed our estimates by 5%/6% due to 5% higher unit opex. EBITDA/scm of Rs8.3 was hence 5% below estimate and flat QoQ.

We downgrade the stock from Accumulate' to Hold amid recent runup in the stock. MAHGL reported adj EBITDA of Rs3.2bn in Q4FY25, down 20% YoY (PLe: Rs3.6bn, BBGe: Rs3.5bn). Miss was mainly on account of higher opex. The adjustment is on account of reversal of discounts given to the OMCs of Rs633.5mn. Adj PAT came in at Rs2.1bn, down 22.6% YoY (PLe: Rs2.4bn, BBGe: Rs2.5bn). For the full year, adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs14.5bn, -21.5% YoY. FY25 adj PAT stood at Rs10bn, -22.7% YoY. We build in volume growth of 10%...

Q2 results were broadly in line with our forecasts. Factoring in stronger growth momentum, we raise FY24-27E volume CAGR to 8.4% from 7.5%

Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) has reported Q1FY25 EBITDA/PAT of INR 4.2/2.85bn (+6/+7% QoQ; -20/-23% YoY), well ahead of I-Sec’s estimates of INR 3.9bn/2.6bn.

Total gas consumption is likely to improve to 500mmscmd in FY30 from
185mmscmd in FY24. Further, the CGD sector’s gas consumption is likely to
grow to 103mmscmd in FY30 from 34mmscmd in FY24.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/>10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs. ~5% during FY19-24.

MGL’s Q4FY24 SA EBITDA/PAT of Rs3.9bn/Rs2.7bn was 6%/10% lower than
our expectation, mainly due to lower realization (higher industrial volume
share) affecting gross margin and on slightly higher opex.

BJAUT: Healthy revival but priced in; downgrade to SELL. TVSL: On a fast track raise to BUY. SBICARD: Asset quality concerns persist; downgrade to HOLD. LAURUS: Challenges galore cut to SELL. CIPLA: Healthy revenue growth, strong margins. MAHGL: Volume growth accelerating, reiterate BUY. DCBB: NII sequentially flat on high interest cost. SBILIFE: ULIP-led growth; maintains market leadership

Q3 beats consensus with sharp uptick in volume growth and stable margins despite lower APM gas allocation

Q2 results in line but margin remains above the cycle average; we raise FY24 EBITDA by 11% factoring in a strong H1

Mahanagar Gas (MGL)’s Q2FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4.8/3.4bn missed our estimates of INR 5bn/3.5bn, but the company delivered a second successive quarter of strong YoY growth with EBITDA/PAT up 89/106% YoY. Volume growth of just 3.4% was muted, but INR 6.6/scm jump YoY in EBITDA/scm was enough to drive the earnings strength in the quarter.