Adani Power Ltd. share price target

We remain optimistic about Adani Power’s long-term growth trajectory, supported by its leadership position in India’s private thermal power sector, improved coal availability, and strong operational execution.

Update Note

Enhanced coal availability & business expansion fueling growth

Empowering Progress

Adani Power Ltd Q2FY19 results Comment Revenue grew by 87.52% to Rs. 7181.54 Cr in Q2FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it rose by 16.6% when compared with Q2FY18.

Revenue fell by 5.77% to Rs. 3829.68 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Adani Power Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment

Revenue decreased by 16.11% to Rs. 4064.17 Cr in Q4FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Adani Power Ltd Q4FY18 Results Comment

Adani Power (APL) has delivered a weak performance in 4QFY18 on the back of lower off-take and low-rate PPAs. Led by higher fuel cost, lower generation along with high interest and depreciation cost, it incurred Rs10.7bn consolidated net loss vs. Rs9.3 bn in 4QFY17. Adjusted for Rs6.0bn compensatory tariff, APL's consolidated (reported) revenue and operating profit...

Q3FY18 net loss of Rs 10 bn (adjusting for one-off expense of Rs 2.9 bn) was higher than our estimate of Rs 4.5 bn. The loss was mainly due to lower domestic coal availability at Tiroda and Kawai plants due to shortage of e-auction coal

APL's EBITDA margin fell by 900bps YoY to 15.3% led by higher fuel cost, arrears of transmission charges (Rs2.8bn) and lower fixed capacity charges. Fuel cost/unit increased to Rs2.7/unit from Rs2.5/unit in 3QFY17. Finance cost marginally declined to Rs14.1bn from Rs14.3bn in 3QFY17 due to reduction in short-term loans. Delayed payment surcharge led to rise in other income. Its...

Weakness Persists; Sharp Rise in Global Coal Prices to Drag Profit Adani Power (APL) continued to deliver weak performance in 2QFY18 owing to lack of adequate coal supply from Bunyu mines and PPAs signed at low rates. On expected lines, its consolidated adjusted net loss widened to Rs3.2bn in 2QFY18 vs. Rs3.1bn in 2QFY17. Its consolidated total revenue and EBIDTA grew by 11.3% YoY and 29.6% YoY to Rs62.0bn and Rs21.0bn, respectively. However, its PAT stood at Rs2.9bn considering prior period recognition of Rs6.4bn as compensatory tariff for shortage of domestic coal in Mundra's Haryana PPA. Adjusting for this, its EBITDA declined to Rs14.8bn. Considering Supreme Court's adverse...

Adani Power Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue increased by 11.03% to Rs. 6206.87 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it grew by 11.3% when compared with Q2FY17.

On expected lines, consolidated net loss of Adani Power (APL) widened to Rs4.5bn in 1QFY18 compared to Rs2.3bn in 1QFY17, albeit its net sales marginally rose by 3.8% YoY. Notably, APL continues to report dismal numbers due to lack of adequate coal supply from Bunyu mines (which has been forcing the Company to blend expensive spot coal), higher coal import (due to limited availability of domestic coal) and PPAs signed at low rates. Considering the Supreme Court's adverse ruling on compensatory tariff and elevated stress on balance sheet post compensatory write-off, we change our recommendation on the stock to REDUCE from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs26 (from Rs33 earlier)....

Revenue grew by 16.15% to Rs. 6352.23 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Q3 EBITDA at Rs 16.5 bn was tad lower than our estimate. Muted PLF at Kawai (44% due to low merchant price and weak demand) and higher spot coal price impacted EBITDA. This was offset to some extent by strong PLF at Udipi (84% vs. 52% in Q2 due to planned shutdown on low demand). Interest cost (Rs 1..

Revenue grew by 0.68% to Rs. 5803.52 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it fell by 6.15% when compared with Q3FY16

Net Loss Widens; Eyes on Compensatory Tariff On account of lower generation, higher fuel and interest cost, consolidated net loss of Adani Power (APL) widened to Rs3.2bn in 3QFY17 compared to Rs1.14bn in 2QFY17, while its net sales declined by 6.2% yoy. APL continues to report dismal numbers due to lack of adequate coal supply from Bunyu mines, which has been forcing the Company to blend expensive spot coal inventory as well as importing higher quantum of coal due to limited availability of domestic coal and PPAs signed at low rate. We reiterate our HOLD recommendation on...

Net Loss Continues to Shrink; Eyes on Compensatory Tariff APL's EBITDA margin stood at 31.5% in 2QFY17 vis--vis 31.2% in 2QFY16 aided by 1.1% yoy decline in fuel cost to Rs2.3/unit. APL's interest cost has declined by Rs2.16bn to Rs14.3bn in 2QFY17 from Rs16.5 bn in 2QFY16 due to refinancing. Backed by lower fuel cost, lower interest cost, APL has reported consolidated net loss of Rs1.14bn in 2QFY17 compared to Rs4.1bn loss in 2QFY16. Its trade receivable stood higher at Rs9.5bn as on...

APL's revenue de-grew 6.0% yoy to Rs55.7bn in 1QFY17 owing to 12% fall in generation to 13.96bn while average realization stood at Rs4.0/unit. It sold 13.96 billion units (BUs) in Q1FY17 Vs 15.86 BUs in Q1FY16 due to shutdown at Tiroda plant owing to non-availability of water. The shortfall in income from Tiroda was due to non-availability of water which was partially compensated by higher revenue at Kawai & Udupi where PLF was 86% & 79%, respectively. Net sales includes: (1) compensatory tariff of Rs1.6bn (vs. Rs2.2bn in 1QFY16) for Mundra plant; (2) compensatory tariff Rs0.22 bn (vs. Rs1.37bn in 1QFY16) for Adani Power Maharashtra; and (3) additional compensatory tariff of Rs0.44bn (vs. Rs 1.5bn in...

Adani Power (APL) consolidated adj. profit stood at Rs3.8bn in 4QFY16 as against Rs 1.1bn in 3QFY16 primarily due to higher PLF (79.5%) and lower fuel cost. The Company has reported net profit for last two quarters after reporting net losses for 11 successive quarters till 2QFY16. APL has been reporting dismal numbers due to lack of adequate coal supply from Bunyu mines thus forcing the Company to blend expensive spot coal inventory as well as importing higher quantum of coal due to limited availability of domestic coal. In the last 3 months as the stock price has gained since we turned positive on the stock. Hence, we have revised our recommendation on the stock from...