Coal India Ltd. share price target

8 January 2019 reached a point where growth of dispatches will suffer not only in FY19E, but also in FY20E. COAL builds inventories during 2H of any financial year in order to meet demand in the 1H of the next financial year, when production is usually lower due to seasonally high heat followed by monsoons. Various government agencies and COALs top management need to work on a war footing to address these issues, else production growth will suffer. Since inventories at power plants remain low, the restocking demand will continue to drive higher demand in FY20E as well. Therefore, we need to reduce E-auction volumes by 3% to 79mt in FY19E and by 25% to 69mt in FY20E. A scarcity of coal for non-power will ensure that E-auction prices remain high. EBITDA estimates by 5%/6% to INR242/274b for FY19E/20E on combined impact of reduction in volumes and increase in E-auction prices as discussed above.

Rich dividend yield on depressed earnings: Impacted by grade slippages, wage revision and elevated capex, COAL's FCFE grew at a tepid CAGR of 2.5% over FY14-FY18 less than half of growth in volumes. We expect FCFE growth to languish between 2.0-2.2% in FY19e-FY21e due to stable earnings...

A reversal in government policy (to substantially align prices with global prices and to invest surpluses profitably) is a huge (but unlikely) risk to our SELL call. COAL Indias business leaves barely enough cash flow, after paying for capex (with back ended benefits) & dividends. Our unflattering view on COAL derives from the grim reality that it serves the mission to supply coal at low prices to Indias power sector, with little regard for profits (let alone maximization).

Coal India (CIL) reported a mixed set of Q2FY19 numbers. Topline was above our estimates, EBITDA came in lower than our estimates while PAT was broadly in line with our estimates. Sales volumes came in at 137.3 MT, up 4% YoY. FSA volumes during the quarter came in at 116.8 MT, up 12% YoY, down 10% QoQ. FSA realisations were at | 1308/tonne (up 7% YoY, flattish QoQ; our estimate: | 1325/tonne). Eauction volume came in lower at 17.7 MT, down 24% YoY, 9% QoQ. The e-auction realisations came in at | 2592/tonne, up 61% YoY, 8% QoQ broadly in line with our estimate of | 2519/tonne...

Coal India Ltd Q2FY19 results Comment Revenue fell by 8.34% to Rs. 20712.71 Cr in Q2FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it rose by 18.5% when compared with Q2FY18.

Coal India (CIL) has posted over seven-fold growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 3,084.70 crore on the back of 22% gain in total income to Rs 22,198.06 crore for the second quarter ended September 2018, driven by its operating margin and higher volume. The operating margin (OPM) expanded to 17.6% from 4.5% in corresponding previous quarter. Thus, OP zoomed by 378% to Rs 3,914.23 crore. Coal India's production increased by 5.8% at 119.62 million tonnes (MT) during quarter, meanwhile Offtake raised by 4.4% to 137.33 MT. CIL's average realizations increased 13.5% to Rs 1,508 per tonne. Coal India (CIL) total income from operation inclined 22% to Rs 22,198.06 crore for the second...

12 November 2018 COAL is supplying higher share of production on a priority basis to the less- higher FSA realization (up ~7% YoY to INR1,308/t v/s our estimate of INR1,325/t), (2) higher e-auction realization (up 61% YoY/8% QoQ to INR2,592/t v/s our estimate of INR2,400/t) and (3) increased volumes (up ~6% to 137.3mt). lower-than-estimated e-auction volume and FSA realization and (3) higher cost in stock adjustment. Adj. PAT of INR30.8b came in lower than our estimate due to higher OBR provision, marginal revenue miss and higher cost of stock adjustment, partly offset by higher other income. However, COAL is benefitting from higher e-auction prices and operating leverage. We lower our e-auction volume estimate by 20mt to 82mt, raise our e-auction price estimate by INR800/t to INR2,500/t and increase our adj. We expect PAT CAGR (FY18-20) of ~27%, led by the full benefit of price hikes and evacuation charges, higher volumes and operating leverage.

Reported EBITDA grew by 378% YoY to Rs39.1bn, while EBIDTA margin improved by 1,312bps YoY to 17.6% led by 2.2% YoY decline in employee expenses to Rs89.5bn vs. Rs91.5bn in 2QFY18. Notably, employee cost peaked to Rs426.3bn in FY18, as CIL provided for increase in gratuity limit from Rs1mn to Rs2mn and wage hike for executives and non-executives. We expect CIL's employee cost to normalise at Rs360-370bn in FY19E. Other operating income increased to Rs20.1bn (vs.Rs10.2bn in 2QFY18) owing introduction of evacuation charges facility of Rs50/tonne on all coal dispatches (except rapid loading system) in Dec'17. Its consolidated reported PAT...

We reiterate Buy on Coal India (CIL) with revised TP of Rs365 as we expect re-rating with market finally appreciating the structural improvements like improved coal quality, better evacuation, significant increase in auction linked volumes and sharp reduction in working capital which provide strong earnings/cash flow visibility. We also expect strong upside to e-auction realisations given the strong global coal prices, weak rupee and strong underlying demand (from both power & non-power) which is expected to mitigate the headwind of higher diesel prices. Concerns around divestment capping stock returns in near term are overdone as...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Coal India's Q1FY19 numbers were higher than our estimates on all fronts. The sales volume came in at 153.4 million tonne (MT) (up 11.7% YoY), wherein blended realisations were at | 1476/tonne (up ~10% YoY). Fuel supply agreement (FSA) sales volumes came in at 130.4 MT (up 21.7% YoY) while FSA realisations during the quarter were at | 1313/tonne (up 9.3% YoY). E-auction volumes came in at 19.4 MT (down steeply by ~29% YoY). However, e-auction...