A reversal in government policy (to substantially align prices with global prices and to invest surpluses profitably) is a huge (but unlikely) risk to our SELL call. COAL Indias business leaves barely enough cash flow, after paying for capex (with back ended benefits) & dividends. Our unflattering view on COAL derives from the grim reality that it serves the mission to supply coal at low prices to Indias power sector, with little regard for profits (let alone maximization).