Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

Our SOTP target is Rs 323/share (5x Sep 20E EV/e for standalone refining, marketing, and pipeline business and Rs 124/sh from other investments). We maintain BUY. BPCLs 2QFY19 EBITDA came in at Rs 24.2bn, down 31.4% YoY and 37.6% QoQ, majorly due to forex losses and lower GRMs. The company made forex losses of Rs 9.3bn owing to depreciation of rupee (~4.6% QoQ and ~9% YoY). Core GRM was down 20% QoQ to USD 3.3/bbl owing to shutdown of Hydrocracker unit at their Mumbai refinery.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Q2FY19 results Comment Revenue grew by 0.83% to Rs. 72291.82 Cr in Q2FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it rose by 35.55% when compared with Q2FY18.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported Q2FY19 results, which were below our estimates on the profitability front mainly on account...

29 October 2018 BPCL reported EBITDA of INR33.5b in 2QFY19. However, excluding inventory gain of INR14.4b, core EBITDA stood at INR19.1b (-34% YoY, +1% QoQ), lower than our estimate of INR25.4b, primarily due to lower-than-expected core GRM and higher-than-expected opex. Forex loss stood at INR9.3b v/s INR588m in 2QFY18 and INR7.1b in 1QFY19. PAT declined 48% YoY (-47% sequentially. Refinery throughput stood at 7.6mmt (+9% YoY, -1% QoQ). (-8% QoQ) to 10.1mmt in 2QFY19. Implied marketing margin inclusive of inventory gain stood at INR4.

The government has announced | 2.5 per litre reduction in petrol and diesel prices to lower the burden on customers due to rising crude oil prices. The central excise duty has been cut by | 1.5 per litre while oil marketing companies (OMCs) have been asked to absorb a cut of | 1 per litre. This move by the government will have a substantial impact on the profitability of OMCs with BPCL and HPCL profits declining ~28% and ~39%, respectively on an annual basis. The current action by the government has put a question mark on the free pricing mechanism for petrol and diesel by OMCs. This...

Revenue grew by 9.9% to Rs. 71696.73 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment

BPCL Q1FY19 results were more than our estimates mainly due to higher than expected inventory gains of Rs26.8bn, partially offset by forex losses of Rs7bn. Adjusting to these, result was slightly below our expectations owing to weaker refinery profit. Revenue was up 25.5% YoY to Rs716 bn while EBITDA grew 216.3% to Rs38.7bn and PAT increased 208% YoY to Rs22.9bn. The company expects GRM expansion at Kochi to kick-in post ramp up of Propylene Unit to feed its upcoming Petchem facility from FY20. We are keeping FY19 estimates almost unchanged while raising FY20E EBITDA/EPS by ~5% to factor-in slightly higher GRM and marketing profits. Though, we slightly tweak...

Our SOTP target is Rs 581 (5x Jun 20E EV/e for standalone refining, 8x EV/e for marketing, 9x for pipeline and Rs 204/sh from other investments). Maintain BUY. BPCLs 1QFY19 EBITDA came in at Rs 38.8bn, up 216% YoY. This has been attributed to a 20.6% jump in refining throughput to 7.74mnt, 53.5% increase in GRM to USD 7.49/bbl, 7.1% increase in marketing volumes at 11.28mnt, and 3.7% increase in blended gross marketing margins to Rs 3.68/ltr.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported Q1FY19 results that were above our estimates on the profitability front mainly on account of higher inventory gains despite a weak operational performance....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Oil Refining and Marketing Companies Volatile operational factors create uncertainty Brent crude oil prices witnessed an upward trajectory in the past two quarters and are currently at high levels of US$77/bbl. More recently, crude oil prices have seen sharp fluctuations in the range of US$70-80/bbl. In addition, depreciation of the rupee has also been a concern. The consequent high petrol and diesel prices resulting in uncertainty over oil marketing...