Durability score
60 /100
Valuation score
42.5 /100
Momentum score
38.3 /100
Market Capitalizati...
64,779.2 Cr.
AVG Broker Target
374.1
PE TTM Price to Ear...
11.0
329.35
5.22%
buy
Results Update: BPCL
SMC online
BPCL consolidated net sales rose 6% to Rs 76325.39 crore for the quarter ended June 2019 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included subsidy from the government of Rs 139.22 crore down 44% on a y-o-y basis. Excluding compensation from the government sales of the company rose 6% to Rs 76186.17 crore. OPM of the company fell 250 bps to 3.9%. As a result operating profits fell 35% to Rs 2981.84 crore. Cost of material consumed as a percentage to net sales (net of stock adjustments) fell 30...
Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 54 to 898 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
IDBI Capital
BPCL Q1FY20 result was a miss to our forecast on EBITDA and PAT front owing to higher inventory loss. Revenue was up 6.4% YoY to Rs763.2bn, EBITDA/PAT was down 43.7%/53.1% YoY to Rs21.8bn/Rs10.7bn respectively. Reported GRM came at US$2.81/bbl whereas core GRM came at US$3.6/bbl which was in-line to our forecast. We have cut our EBITDA forecast for FY20E by 10% to factor in high inventory loss whereas we have kept our EBITDA forecast for FY21E unchanged. We continue to maintain our TP of Rs412 based on 7x on EV/EBITDA. Upgrade to BUY from HOLD due...
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Number of Mutual Funds holding stock rose by 19 to 161 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We are upgrading BPCL from Sell to Accumulate after a 14% increase in TP to Rs343 based on 7.2x FY21E post marginal earnings changes after the 1QFY20 results call with management. We still have concerns on the refining business outlook given the volatility in oil prices and GRMs and currency. But, these concerns in our view are in the price following the near 9% fall in the stock from a year ago. The catalysts include the following: (i) Likely easing of pain on refining on company specific factors, including additional margins on 0.5mn tpa of propylene being produced in its Kochi Refinery, (ii) Management's retail strategy to take on private competition aimed at market share gains of 200 bps. The company is counting on its superior retail network...
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. is trading below it's 30 day SMA of 343.99
329.35
5.22%
HDFC Securities
For BPCL, core GRMs are expected to improve further by USD 0.5 to 1.0/bbl by FY22E on account of gradual increase in share of heavy and cheap crude at its Kochi refinery.Additionally, restoration of marketing margins as elections have concluded is a key positive. Our SOTP target is Rs 434/share (5.5x Jun 21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Jun 21E EV/e for marketing, and pipeline business and Rs 129/sh for other investments). Maintain BUY. Inventory losses and shutdown of BPCLs refinery has resulted in a muted 1Q performance. However, we maintain our BUY owing to its impeccable refining assets and healthy free cash flows (Rs 66.55bn) over FY21-22E.
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Number of Mutual Funds holding stock rose by 19 to 161 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.
BPCL's Q1FY20 EBITDA at Rs 21.8bn (44% YoY) outperformed estimates on higher GRMs (US$ 2.8/bbl after US$ 0.8/bbl inventory loss).
Bharat Petroleum Cor.. has an average target of 374.14 from 9 brokers.
329.35
5.22%
buy
Buy: BPCL
Motilal Oswal
BPCL reported a GRM of USD2.8/bbl, lower than our estimate of USD3.0 and USD7.5 in 1QFY19. Consequently, EBITDA was down 53% YoY/QoQ at INR21.5b, despite a decline of INR1.6b in other expenses. Adj. EBITDA was up 37% YoY at INR26.0b, with the refining inventory loss at INR1.3b and the marketing inventory loss at INR3.3b. Forex gain was at INR0.3b for the quarter (v/s a loss of INR7.1b in 1QFY19 and a gain of INR2.8b in 4QFY19). Reported PAT was at INR10.8b (-53% YoY). BPCL has reported first-quarter earnings based on Ind-AS 116. Depreciation...
Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 54 to 898 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
ICICI Securities Limited
The correction in oil prices led to super-normal marketing margins for OMCs in Q4FY19, which led to lower margins QoQ. However, on an absolute basis, the marketing segment reported a stable performance in Q1FY20. We expect similar profitability from this segment in coming quarters. In terms of marketing sales, BPCL reported growth of 1.3% YoY to 11.1 MMT, below our estimates on account of lower-than-expected LPG and diesel sales. Going forward, we expect marketing sales volumes to grow at 3.5-4.5% CAGR over the next two years. The crude throughput in Q1FY20 was higher...
Bharat Petroleum Cor.. has an average target of 374.14 from 9 brokers.
329.35
5.22%
buy
Sell: BPCL
Reliance Securities
Despite good performance in marketing segment, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has reported weak operating performance in 1QFY20 with EBITDA falling by 44% YoY and 55% QoQ to Rs21.8bn (in line with our estimate) led by lower refining throughput and margin. It reported a GRM of US$2.81/bbl in 1QFY20 vs. US$7.49/bbl in1QFY19. We believe 4% YoY fall in crude throughput was mainly due to Mumbai refinery upgradation for BS-VI fuel. Its net profit declined by 53% YoY and 66% QoQ to Rs10.7bn (11% above our estimate) mainly due to higher interest cost (+50% YoY and +28% QoQ). Notably, its debt increased by Rs15.5bn sequentially. Further, adoption of Ind AS-116 resulted into net Rs520mn decrease in PBT. In Jul'19, benchmark complex...
Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 54 to 898 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
SMC online
10 bps to 38.1%, other expenditure decreased 10 bps to 5.5%, staff cost remained flat at 1.4% and purchase of stock in trade decreased 40 bps to 48.7%. Other income rose 27% to Rs 1057.61 crore. Interest cost rose by 61% to Rs 352.58 crore. Depreciation rose 23% to Rs 914.88 crore. PBT was up 27% to Rs 4595.14 crore. Effective rate...
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Number of Mutual Funds holding stock rose by 19 to 161 in Jun 2019 qtr.
329.35
5.22%
HDFC Securities
We expect BPCL's core EBITDA (adjusted for inventory and forex gains/losses) growth to lag peers' in the absence of refining capacity expansion. Besides, the interest cost will increase as a consequence to jump in debt. We downgrade to NEUTRAL with a SOTP target of Rs 409/sh (5.5x Mar 21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Mar 21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline businesses plus Rs 129/sh for other investments). We like BPCL owing to its impeccable refining assets. However, it is in the weakest spot among OMCs, with no refining capacity addition in foreseeable future and increase in interest cost on account of increasing debt. Hence, we downgrade to NEUTRAL.
Bharat Petroleum Cor.. has an average target of 374.14 from 9 brokers.