Birla Corporation Ltd. share price target

We value the stock at 9x FY27E EV/EBITDA, arriving at a Target Price of Rs 1,560/share, implying an upside potential of 20% from the CMP.

Birla Corporation (BCORP)’s 1QFY26 EBITDA increased ~34% YoY to INR3.5b (~8% miss due to lower-than-estimated realization). EBITDA/t was up ~23% YoY to INR725 (est. INR838), and OPM surged 2.3pp YoY to ~14% (est. ~16%).

BCORP’s 4QFY25 earnings were above our estimates, driven by higher-thanestimated volume and realization. EBITDA grew ~13% YoY to INR5.3b (~50% beat).

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

Keener competition in Birla Corp’s core regions affected its Q3 performance where revenue/EBITDA declined 2.3%/34.5% y/y chiefly due to lower realisations.

Weak demand because of the prolonged monsoon, less government infra funding and keen competition hurt Birla Corp’s Q2. Its FY25 volume guidance was lowered to 3-4% as demand at its core regions would be curbed by Mahakumbh (Central) and elections (Maharashtra) where EBITDA/tonne has been guided to rise Rs150-170 in H2 FY25.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

BCORP’s 2QFY25 EBITDA declined 39% YoY to INR1.8b (in line) and EBITDA/t fell 35% YoY to INR446 (est. INR436). OPM dipped 3.6pp YoY to 9%. The company reported a net loss of INR252m vs. PAT of INR586m in 2QFY24.

We maintain a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price (TP) of Rs 1,500/share, which implies an upside potential of 14% from the CMP.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Birla Corp’s Q4FY24 consolidated EBITDA came 14-19% higher than
consensus/our estimate, it grew 73% YoY/25% QoQ to Rs4.7bn. Blended
EBITDA/t grew 8% QoQ to Rs974.

Operating at 97% capacity, Birla Corporation’s revenue growth came from
firm volume growth, whereas weak prices dented realisations.

We initiate coverage on Birla Corporation Ltd (BCORP) with a strong “BUY” recommendation and target price of Rs2055 based on 8x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Our recommendation is primarily based on
1). Leading player in demand-rich region, i.e., Central India, 2). Capacity addition and volume growth higher than the industry average, 3). Improved cost-efficiency, 4). Less dependency on
grid on the back of higher usage of captive coal mines, 5). Strong focus on premiumisation, 6). Incentive-based plants and 7) Healthy balance sheet with better return ratios

We recommend a BUY on the stock for a target price of Rs1665/- implying an upside of 10% from CMP

Birla Corporation Ltd (BCL) is the flagship company of the M.P. Birla Group. Incorporated as Birla Jute Manufacturing Company Limited in 1919, it transformed itself from a manufacturer of jute goods to a leading multi-product corporation with widespread activities.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock and roll over our estimate to FY26