Birla Corporation Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

Keener competition in Birla Corp’s core regions affected its Q3 performance where revenue/EBITDA declined 2.3%/34.5% y/y chiefly due to lower realisations.

Weak demand because of the prolonged monsoon, less government infra funding and keen competition hurt Birla Corp’s Q2. Its FY25 volume guidance was lowered to 3-4% as demand at its core regions would be curbed by Mahakumbh (Central) and elections (Maharashtra) where EBITDA/tonne has been guided to rise Rs150-170 in H2 FY25.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

BCORP’s 2QFY25 EBITDA declined 39% YoY to INR1.8b (in line) and EBITDA/t fell 35% YoY to INR446 (est. INR436). OPM dipped 3.6pp YoY to 9%. The company reported a net loss of INR252m vs. PAT of INR586m in 2QFY24.

We maintain a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price (TP) of Rs 1,500/share, which implies an upside potential of 14% from the CMP.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Birla Corp’s Q4FY24 consolidated EBITDA came 14-19% higher than
consensus/our estimate, it grew 73% YoY/25% QoQ to Rs4.7bn. Blended
EBITDA/t grew 8% QoQ to Rs974.

Operating at 97% capacity, Birla Corporation’s revenue growth came from
firm volume growth, whereas weak prices dented realisations.

We initiate coverage on Birla Corporation Ltd (BCORP) with a strong “BUY” recommendation and target price of Rs2055 based on 8x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Our recommendation is primarily based on
1). Leading player in demand-rich region, i.e., Central India, 2). Capacity addition and volume growth higher than the industry average, 3). Improved cost-efficiency, 4). Less dependency on
grid on the back of higher usage of captive coal mines, 5). Strong focus on premiumisation, 6). Incentive-based plants and 7) Healthy balance sheet with better return ratios

We recommend a BUY on the stock for a target price of Rs1665/- implying an upside of 10% from CMP

Birla Corporation Ltd (BCL) is the flagship company of the M.P. Birla Group. Incorporated as Birla Jute Manufacturing Company Limited in 1919, it transformed itself from a manufacturer of jute goods to a leading multi-product corporation with widespread activities.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock and roll over our estimate to FY26

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Our BUY recommendation is supported by our valuation, where we assign a 8x FY25E EV/EBITDA multiple. This results in a target price of Rs 1,400 per share, indicating a potential upside of 12% from the current market price.