Zensar Technologies Ltd. share price target

Zensar Technologies Ltd. (Zensar) reported weak results in terms of top line and on operating margins front in Q3FY20. Zensar posted revenue de-growth of 6.4% on QoQ basis and 0.8% on YoY basis in constant currency (CC) terms for the period of Q3FY20 at Rs.1,021crs.

Deal wins, digital, client mining key growth levers The company reported a sequential decline of 5.9% in dollar revenues in the quarter on the back of 13.4% QoQ drag in core revenues. This was primarily due to client specific ramp down in retail ($5 million) along with seasonal weakness and volume discount given to two clients. On the other hand, digital increased 1.6% QoQ and 20.2% YoY. Further, strong order booking of $170 million+ TCV with 45% as new wins and healthy pipeline coupled with consistent focus on client mining would lead revenues to grow at a...

Zensar's organic growth has slipped (~5% in FY20E vs. ~9% in FY19) due to high exposure to stressed verticals like Hi-Tech, Manufacturing and Retail. BSFI is doing well led by deals wins in Insurance and focus on large African banks. Retail performace has been disappointing and is taking longer than expected to recover. Deal pipeline is healthy at USD 1bn, ~50% of the pipeline are large deals (TCV >USD 5mn) but conversion and execution remains the key. Margin recovery target is aggressive considering the ongoing restructuring and higher onsite revenue mix. We build 7.1/6.1/6.4% Revenue/EBIT/PAT CAGR over FY19-22E. The stock trades at a P/E of 13.5/10.2x FY21/22E, which is reasonable but better growth and margin visibility will lead to re-rating. We downgrade Zensar to NEU (from BUY), post disappointing 3QFY20, growth challenges and weak execution. Deal pipeline is healthy and TCV wins have improved but not reflecting in growth. Margin recovery is slower than expected and Retail/Legacy drag is weighing on growth and margins. We cut FY22E Rev/EPS by 10.5/19.9% and reduce P/E multiple to 11x vs. 12x earlier. Our TP of Rs 177 is based on 11x (~14% discount to 5Y average) Dec-21E EPS.

The sharp decline can be largely attributed to (1) one-time tail account ramp downs in retail, (2) furloughs, and (3) year-end volume discounts. Given the available margin levers and impending headwinds (e.g. wage hikes, etc.), we expect EBITDA margins to remain flat at ~11% in FY21 before Barring FY19 when overall revenue growth (including inorganic) came close to that of mid-cap peers (mostly organic), the stock always traded at a steep discount to the sector (in range of 8-10x one-year forward P/E). This was due to its inferior growth (organic revenue CAGR of 4% over FY15-20E v/s 12%+ for mid-cap peers), pay-out ratio (20% v/s average pay-out of 40%) and return profile (RoE of 18% v/s 30%+ for On our revised estimates, the stock is trading at an optically expensive multiple of ~17x FY21E EPS (depressed earnings though).

Blame it on Retail and delay in renewals: Growth momentum at Zensar slowed down in Q2F20 due to sustained weakness in Retail and delay in deal renewals post completion of a large deal in Cloud Infra Services.

Zensar's key vertical (~53% of rev) Hi-Tech and Manufacturing are exposed to macro uncertainity and can get impacted if trade war risk accelerate. BSFI is doing well led by ramp-up of large deals in Insurance. Retail performace has been disappointing and is taking longer than expected to recover. Overall the growth engine will have near term challenges and will recover with large deal wins. Deal pipeline is healthy at USD 1bn and ~52% of the pipeline are large deals (TCV >USD 5mn). Margin recovery is slow but will recover gradually with growth. We build 11/16/15% Revenue/EBIT/PAT CAGR over FY19-22E. We maintain our positive view based on (1) High exposure to Digital, (2) Robust deal pipeline, (3) Scope for margin expansion and (4) Reasonable valuation. Risks include delay in decision making, trade wars and deterioration of US/Europe macro environment. We maintain BUY on Zensar despite muted performance in 2QFY20. Deal pipeline remains strong but TCV wins have slowed down due to macro uncertainty. Margin recovery is slower than expected and Retail weakness is weighing on growth. We cut FY21E Rev/EPS by 3.7/5.4% and reduce P/E multiple to 12x from 14x. Our TP of Rs 240 is based on 12x Sep-21E EPS.

22 October 2019 2QFY20 revenue increased 12.8% YoY (v/s est. EBIT increased 6.2% YoY to INR1,115m (margin of 10.4%) v/s our expectation of 5.2% decline YoY. Despite higher operational income, PAT declined 16% YoY to INR799m (v/s est. of INR843m) led by higher interest expense at INR139m (v/s est. of INR39m) and lower other income at INR9m (v/s est. ZENT reported 15.8% QoQ drop in the CIS business, 7.7% drop in Retail vertical and 3.

Zensar Technologies Ltd, is a specialized IT Service provider headquartered in Pune, India. We initiate coverage with BUY rating and a target price of Rs. 270 i.e. 23% upside.

Good Set of Numbers: Zensar reported a revenue growth of 18% YoY to Rs. 10661 Mn. In $ terms Zensar reported a revenue of $153.3 Mn up 3% QoQ. Revenues were up 16.4% in Q1FY19.