Bajaj Auto Ltd. share price target

Q4FY19 revenue grew by 9%YoY at Rs7,395cr on a sequential basis the revenue has been mostly flat. EBITDA margins came at 15.7% for Q4FY19 contracted 388bps YoY due to a) increase in marketing spends b) higher commodity...

3W volumes were almost flat for Q4FY19 (growth 6% QoQ). Growth in this segment was mainly because of exports (growth 34% YoY). The Company sold the highest ever number of units in the current fiscal. Exports to Egypt may remain under pressure because of regulatory concerns. This may create a hang on the 3W business as Egypt is...

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q4FY19 result was in-line with our and below consensus estimates at operating level. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 15.7% vs our and consensus estimates of 15.8% and 16.3% respectively. We expect BJAUT domestic motorcycle sales to decline ~2% in FY20 mainly on account of higher base in commuter segment and weak buyer sentiment. We cut our FY20 revenue and earnings estimates by 1%/6% and introduce FY21 estimates. We have built in revenue/earnings CAGR of 8%/8% over FY19-21E with ROE of ~20% and average free cash flow of ~Rs45bn. We change our rating to REDUCE (earlier ACCUMULATE) and revise our TP to Rs2,670 (earlier Rs2,740)...

Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported steady Q4FY19 numbers with a surprise on ASPs (up 5% QoQ at | 60,533/unit) & exceptional item (| 342 crore) resulting in 21% increase in PAT on a YoY basis. Net revenues came in at | 7,395 crore (up 9.2% YoY). Total volumes for the quarter were at 11.9 lakh units (up 14% YoY) wherein 2-W volumes were at 10.0 lakh units (up 17% YoY) and 3-W volumes were 1.9 lakh units (up 1% YoY). Reported EBITDA margins were at 15.7% (up 11 bps QoQ). PAT in Q4FY19 grew 20.9% YoY to | 1,306 crore. PAT was higher supported by | 342 crore as exceptional gain realised in...

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported strong set of numbers in subdued environment as Net sales stood at Rs 74.5bn (+9% YoY / -0.7% QoQ). Realizations were at Rs 62.5k (-4.5% YoY and +4.8% QoQ) on superior product mix led by strong export sales. Gross margins at 28.4% (-300bps YoY/ +20bps QoQ) were impacted by continued pricing disruption in entry level motorcycles (CT100 and platina). The exports volumes continued to grow stronger led by Africa, Indonesia (+13% YoY) which boosted the realizations on QoQ basis. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 16.5% (-380bps YoY/+31bps QoQ) and were impacted by higher staff costs (+17%...

We re-iterate BUY as (1) Bajaj's market share is back to 25% in motorbikes (earlier seen in CY16) (2) They will launch new variants particularly in the executive segment to increase share in the domestic segment (3) The margins are stabilizing at current levels. Bajajs adj. 4QFY19 PAT at Rs 10.7bn (-1% YoY) was inline with our estimates. We expect Bajaj to grow ahead of the market in FY20 as well driven by new launches across its product range. Our revised TP is Rs 3,330 (based on its long term ten year average PE multiple of 17.5x on FY21E earnings). While the two wheeler industry growth has been benign, Bajaj has expanded market share by recalibrating its strategy. Further, the company has a diversified product portfolio with three wheelers and exports accounting for ~50% of volumes. Re-iterate BUY.

EBITDA margins flat QoQ despite better mix, favorable commodity prices: Revenues grew 9% YoY to INR74b (our est. INR71.4b), with volume growth of 14% YoY. Realization improved 5.3% QoQ (down 4.6% YoY) to INR62k/unit (our est. INR59.8k/unit) due to favorable mix. EBITDA declined 12.6% YoY to INR11.6b (in-line), implying an EBITDA margin of 15.7% v/s our est. of 16% (390bp YoY, +10bp QoQ). Higher other income boosted adj. PAT to ~INR10.7b v/s our est. of ~INR10b. FY19 volumes/revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 25%/20%/3%/10% - largely reflecting for trade-off of margins for market share. Management commentary: (a) Despite regional festivals in few states,...

(BAL) results are ahead of estimates on the operational front. Revenues at Rs 7,395 crore rose 9% y-o-y (broadly in line with estimates) driven by a strong 14% growth in volumes. BAL's efforts to gain market share in the domestic motorcycle segment and healthy export growth boosted volumes. Realization/vehicle dropped 5% y-o-y due to an adverse mix (higher share...

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) is strategically shifting its focus away from margins in an attempt to recoup its lost market share in domestic motorcycles. The aim is to expand its market share further to ~24% from ~18.7% now by plugging gaps in the portfolio. We expect domestic 2W demand trends to remain volatile until 1HFY21, with the risk of BS6 cost inflation puncturing the expected recovery in 2HFY20

EBITDA margin came in at 15.6% down by 397bpsYoY due to a) higher commodity cost b) higher discounts c) lower than expected forex realizations. PAT grew by 16%YoY due to higher other income We expects the EBITDA margin to be in range of 16-17% due to competition in the commuter segment. Given its strong brands and robust distribution network, BAL is in a superior position to benefit from export market. We expect revenue CAGR of 10% over FY19E-21E led by strong rural demand, new planned launches and export sales, will drive volume growth....