Bajaj Auto Ltd. share price target

Numbers bottomed out in Q1, heading towards recovery Resilience displayed in pandemic hit quarter Bajaj Auto posted a 61% yoy decline in the topline in COVID hit Q1, while they declined by 55% qoq. The volumes fell by 64.5% yoy and 55% qoq as there was a stringent lockdown observed in the earlier part of the quarter. Realizations grew by 9.8% yoy, which were very well supported by export realizations and a higher proportion of BS 6 vehicles. EBITDA declined by 66% yoy to 4.1 bn, while margins still showed a better performance at 13.3%, much better than street's expectations, though it was lower by 210 bps yoy. The overall underperformane stemming from...

Bajaj Auto reported a dismalQ1FY21 but along expected lines. Revenue declinedby ~60% YoY at Rs3079cr (v/s our est. of Rs 3078 cr). EBITDA came in at Rs409cr ahead of our estimates on better Gross Margins (up 460 bps YoY). EBITDA margin was at 13.3% (down ~220 bps YoY and 510 bps QoQ)

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q1FY21 result was above our and consensus estimates at all parameters. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 13.3% vs our and consensus estimates of 4.4% and 10.6% respectively on account of lower operating expenses. We expect domestic 2W/3W industry to see a double digit decline in FY21 driven primarily by adverse impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic growth and discretionary spending. However stronger recovery in export market for 2W/3W segment would help BJAUT to partially mitigate the current slowdown in domestic market. We cut our volume estimates for FY21/FY22 by 5% each factoring the extended lockdown in certain...

Finacing concerns for domestic 3Ws to continue as owners are only earning ~30-40% of the normal business per days. No conern on 2W so-far. BJAUT results were operationally better with positive surprise on EBITDA margins at 13.3% (-220bp YoY, PLe 12.5%) led by three year high gross margins at 32.9% (+470bp YoY, PLe 32%). The beat was led by favorable forex impact. However, Adj.PAT came in lower at Rs5.3b (-53% YoY, PLe Rs6.2b) due to lower other income. With weak product mix (higher domestic share)...

Bajaj Auto Q4 results, net profit flat at Rs 1,310 crore; still beats Street estimates. Bajaj Auto posted 0.36 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,310.29 crore for the quarter ended March 31. Bajaj Auto had reported a net profit of Rs 1,305.59 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. It's quarterly profit remained largely flat as exports partially offset its sales decline in India after the coronavirus pandemic stalled operations and dealt another blow an already struggling automobile sector....

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q4FY20 result was above our and consensus estimates at operating level. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 18.4% vs our and consensus estimates of 16.3% and 15.8% respectively. We expect 2W industry to see a double digit decline in FY21 driven primarily by adverse impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic growth and discretionary spending. The challenges for the 2W segment are likely to get aggravated as consumer spending will be severely impacted by the outbreak resulting in lower spending power both in urban and rural markets. We believe BJAUT being a major player in 250cc segment could see muted sales for Pulser/Avenger/KTM etc. We...

Bajaj Auto posted a strong set of numbers in Q4 FY20, as a volume fall 0f 17% yoy was quite arrested by a 10.1% hike in realizations on a better product mix and benign hike in input costs. The topline fell by 8% yoy and 11% qoq. Better realizations, steady forex benefits, RM costs tailwinds led to an 8 quarter high EBITDA margins at 18.4% up from 15.7%/17.9% yoy and qoq respectively. RM costs to sales ratio fell to 70.6% from 74% yoy and 71.8% qoq leading to a robust margin performance. Other income grew by 23%, while depreciation grew by just 4%. On 24% tax rate, net profits zoomed up by 36% yoy to 13.1 bn. On a qoq basis, they grew by 4%. Covid -19 impact to be seen in H1 FY 21, all hopes on H2.....

The deep economic impact of the Covid-19 disruption has brought about a role reversal in our immediate and medium term expectations for the auto sector. Earlier, the PV segment was seen outperforming on the back of rising premiumisation content and an expanding UV portfolio. However, with income levels and ensuing propensity to spend under pressure now in the wake of the pandemic, we feel the 2-W space would now be the frontrunner in coming quarters. Within 2-W, rural-heavy motorcycle sub-segment is expected to lead the charge owing to (i) relatively lower Covid-19 outbreak...

Bajaj Auto reported a resilient Q4FY20, with all round beat. Revenues were down 8% (v/s expectation of 15%), Gross Margin was up 340 bps (YoY) on account of better product mix and favourable currency.

Finacing concerns for domestic 3Ws although no conern on 2W so-far. BJAUT results look better at Revenue/EBITDA/PAT where EBITDA margin came in at 18.4% (PLe 16.2%), expanding 50bp QoQ. The beat in margin was led by higher realizations at Rs68.7k/unit (PLe Rs63.7k/unit) aided by favorable mix and forex movement. We have slashed FY21/22 eps estimates by 5.3%/2.6% as we cut sales by 11%/8% due to uncertainties in both domestic and exports volumes (both in 2W and 3W). BJAUT is already...