Axis Bank Ltd. share price target

Axis Bank’s (AXSB) stock has significantly underperformed key private peers, led by concerns on muted growth, elevated credit cost, and a decline in RoE.

We met Mr Subrat Mohanty, Executive Director and Mr Puneet Sharma, CFO of Axis Bank (Axis). The bank did not provide any guidance, though it acknowledges the healthy systemic liquidity; this, in conjunction with the hefty cumulative cut, should aid systemic loan growth, albeit with a lag.

We met Axis Bank’s ED Subrata Mohanty and CFO Puneet Sharma, to understand the business/profitability outlook, more so in view of the recent monetary policy.

Axis Bank reported a steady Q4FY25, with financial growth driven by robust retail and digital performance, improved asset quality, and disciplined cost management. The bank's investments in technology and branch expansion are expected to drive customer growth and enhance overall performance. Axis Bank's asset quality remains a key strength, with one of the lowest NPA ratios among large private banks, supported by strong provision coverage and declining slippage rates. Additionally, Axis Bank is expected to sustain healthy credit growth, supported by a...

Axis Bank (Axis) reported ~13% rise in Q4FY25 net profit to INR 71.2bn (flattish YoY; 8% beat) on the back of ~2% rise in PPOP (in-line). Provisions declined sharply, led by INR 8bn reversals on government-backed SR.

Axis Bank reported Q4FY25 results slightly below our estimates in terms of advances growth (marginal miss by 0.5%), mainly due to slow growth in the retail advances. However, deposits reported an improvement with a growth of 7% QoQ (1.2% above our estimates).

Muted advances and deposits growth, with low signs of improvement in near term

AXSB saw a decent quarter due to better deposit growth at 7.0% QoQ (PLe 3.0%) and higher fees (8.7% beat). Adjusted for (1) PSLC income of Rs1.7bn (2) PSLC cost of Rs5.9bn and (3) provision write-back of Rs8.0bn in SR, core PAT beat PLe by 5.0% to Rs65.8bn. Since higher LDR was a constraint to healthy loan growth, balance sheet has been repaired as LDR declined QoQ to 88.7% from 92.6% in Q3FY25. While asset quality was better owing to lower net slippages, provisions adjusted SR write-back, remained elevated at 86bps (PLe...

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported 4QFY25 net profit of INR71.2b (flat YoY, up 13% QoQ, in line). NII grew 6% YoY/2% QoQ to INR138.1b (in line). NIMs expanded 4bp QoQ to 3.97%.

Q4FY25 earnings were a mixed bag. Net interest income (NII), at Rs. 13,811 crore (in line), grew by ~6% y-o-y/2%q-o-q. NIMs marginally improved by 4 bps q-o-q to 3.97% led by better asset quality and income tax refund.

Axis Bank reported higher slippages led by change in recognizing slippages as Technical Impact. Excluding technical impact also, asset quality deteriorated as slippages increased and NPA inched up to 1.41% vs 1.28% QoQ. Credit growth remain stable at 8% YoY vs 7.8% YoY (Q4FY26), while deposit growth declined to 9% YoY vs 10% YoY (Q4FY26). NIMs declined by 17bps QoQ to 3.8% led by interest reversal and repricing impact; further we expect impact of rate cuts on margins. NII grew by 1% YoY led by lower NIMs. PPoP grew by 14% YoY due to higher other income. Provisions increased by 94% YoY due to higher slippages which resulted PAT...

We believe that easing liquidity conditions by the new RBI governor and greater government spending would drive improvement in Axis Bank’s outlook. We see the +ve macro impetus to drive a re-rating in a quality franchisee with a positive risk-reward.

Sluggish Growth

Axis Bank continues to report weak credit growth, which has now slipped to 9% YoY; this, along with margin contraction (of 6bps QoQ) and higher retail slippages (net at Rs29bn vs Rs22bn in 2Q) led to elevated provisions.

A Tough' business quarter

Yet another soft quarter with moderate advances and deposits growth, with less signs of improvement in the next two quarters

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported 3QFY25 net profit of INR63b (up 3.8% YoY, in line) as lower opex offset higher provisions. In 9MFY25, earnings grew 8.6% YoY to INR192.6b, and we expect 4QFY25 PAT to come in at INR68.4b.

Q3FY25 numbers were weak. Loan growth and deposit growth stood at a multi-quarter low. Slippages were elevated too at 2.3%, a multi-quarter high. Slippages largely attributed to Credit cards, Ppersonal loans, MFI and Agri-portfolio. Asset quality would stablise over the next couple of quarters.