Tata Power Company Ltd. share price target

19 May 2020 Tata Powers (TPWR) 4QFY20 results reflect the benefit of better working of the Mundra-Coal JV hedge offset by lower renewable (EPC + generation) and S/A performance. Adj. PAT stood at INR2.1b (v/s INR2.3b in the previous year). Going forward, divestment related measures could aid cash inflow and subsequent debt repayment. However, with continued renewable capex, and given the current environment, we await further steps on this front. Successful renegotiation of Mundra PPA provides an upside risk. PAT for TPWR came in at INR2.1b (v/s est. INR2.2b) on better working of the Mundra-Coal JV hedge, which was partly offset by lower performance within RE (generation + EPC) and S/A.

The Tata Power Company Limited generates and supplies electricity. The Company constructs and operates independent power plants, as well as specializes in transmission and distribution of electricity. It delivers its...

PAT was up 27% YoY to INR3.5b (in-line) on better performance of the Mundra-Coal JV hedge. PAT has been adjusted for INR1.6b impact of taxes on KPC and coal SPVs, INR0.7b of dividend from Cennergi (held for sale) and INR0.5b of one-time gains on other income. Operational performance (EBITDA and PAT of JV companies) was up 10% YoY to INR21.6b (v/s est. Adjusting for INR0.6b prior period related taxes at KPC, increased 12% YoY to INR4b. Given the decline in coal prices, there was no significant impact of DMO obligation for its JVs.

The Tata Power Company Limited generates and supplies electricity. The Company constructs and operates independent power plants, as well as specializes in transmission and distribution of electricity. It delivers its...

Tata Power's (TPWR) 1QFY20 consol. operational performance (EBITDA and PAT of JVs) increased 19% YoY to INR23.4b, led by a better performance of the MundraCoal JV hedge and Maithon. Adj. PAT increased 19% YoY to INR2.6b (in-line). Mundra (EBITDA) and coal JVs (PAT) increased 27% YoY to INR4.2b. Given the decline in coal prices, there was no significant impact of DMO obligation for its JVs. Further, tariff escalation at Mundra on account of timing difference also lowered its under-recoveries, in our view. RE (ex-standalone) EBITDA increased 10% YoY to INR5.4b, led by a 21% YoY...

28 January 2019 Tata Power (TPWR) reported a loss of INR1.1b on a consolidated basis in 3QFY19, as against a profit of INR2.7b in the previous quarter and our estimate of INR2.9b. The performance was dragged by a higher-than-expected cost increase, lower realization at the coal JV, and a rise in under-recoveries at Mundra. PAT is adjusted for an INR2.7b gain on deferred tax reversal and an INR0.3b loss from discounted operations. Operational performance (EBITDA and PAT of JV companies) was declined 64% QoQ. The hedge between the two was impacted by a sharp increase in COGS, lower realization at coal JVs due to mix, Indonesias DMO impact, and some one-offs. Mundra under- recoveries increased INR0.13/kWh QoQ to INR0.95/kWh. Mumbai EBITDA (proxy standalone) was steady QoQ, while Delhis PAT increased 68% QoQ, aided by consultancy income. Regulated equity was broadly flat QoQ in both the circles.

After about a year-long competitive bidding process, BEST DISCOM found it economical to extend the existing PPA with Tata Power's Trombay and hydro power plants due to transmission constraints in Mumbai. Mumbai distribution circle relies heavily on embedded generation.

29 October 2018 Tata Powers (TPWR) 2QFY19 consol. PAT declined 28% YoY (+25% QoQ) to prior-period revenue of ~INR0.9b, net of loss on discontinued operations of ~INR0.3b. Operational performance (EBITDA and PAT of JV companies) was in line. increased 25% QoQ to INR4.1b, driven by INR depreciation, higher coal prices and savings from blending of low-GCV coal at Mundra. Indonesias DMO obligation impacted coal JVs PAT by ~INR0.6b. Cost of production in coal JVs is rising, which could offset gains from higher prices. Regulatory assets declined by ~5% QoQ to INR41b, aiding working capital improvement in Delhi. RE EBITDA increased 8% YoY (-7% QoQ) to INR4.6b, driven by an increase in generation by 34% YoY.