Sell

Tech Mahindra (TECHM) posted a 4.3% QoQ dollar revenue decline and 200bps EBITDA margin contraction to round off a disappointing Q4FY20 performance.

With a long run-way of growth, improving regulatory environment, and strong innovation opportunities, we remain positive on the general insurance sector. Regulatory crack-down on motor TP pricing is key risk. Pvt. multi-line insurers Mar-20/FY20 GDPI grew -16.2/+11.7% YoY to Rs 67.1/911.8bn. Decline in Mar-20 was along expected lines as new policy sales have declined as a result of the lockdown and renewals have been impacted by the forbearance (until 15-May-20) given by IRDAI on premium payments, and extra time (until June-20) allowed for claiming deduction under the IT Act, for the purchase of health cover.

Upbeat quarter; upgrade a notch to REDUCE

Mindtree reported revenue growth of 1.9% in c/c and 1.2% in reported terms, in line with our expectations. Growth was driven by the top account which grew 8.6% sequentially. Ex-top account revenues would have declined 1.1% QoQ. Its top client added US$5.5 mn to incremental revenues offsetting US$2.3 mn decline in the rest of the firm. EBIT margin was in line with our estimates of 12.5%. Active clients have shown a decline to 307 from 320 in Q3FY20 & 343 in Q2FY20, this highlights rationalization of tail accounts. We give credit to the new management on margin expansion, but we find...

Mindtree (MTCL) reported an upbeat Q4 operating performance with 1.9% QoQ CC growth and swift margin recovery.

Recommendations and stock picks: Outlook on ordering both domestic/international ex roads is likely to be weak. Banks lending will be selective. We have downgraded ABB from ADD to SELL and Siemens from ADD to REDUCE. We have cut PSP/ITD rating from BUY to ADD. We maintain BUY ratings on other coverage stocks. For our coverage universe, we have recalibrated the P/E multiple/EPS estimates lower resulting in TP cuts by 10-60%. In cap goods, LT is our top pick. In the mid cap EPC space, KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ahluwalia are our top picks. COVID-19 poses multiple headwinds: Industrials companies have been hit hard by COVID-19 pandemic. Execution has started to pick up slowly post almost a month of lockdown. Local Govt approvals are coming slowly as the sector grapples for remobilization of sites. Urban areas are being turned into containment fortresses and it will take time for the works to resume. This will largely impact Metro and Real Estate projects execution. National Highway projects are still executable as they run through interior State districts with limited COVID-19 impact. We believe pure play NH EPC players are best placed to tide through the crisis. Buildings players are worst impacted.

Opec+ output cut deal not enough; oversupply to continue From the start of 2020, Brent oil prices have declined ~60% while WTI oil prices went below zero. In March, a disagreement between Opec and Russia regarding production cut led to a price war in the global market. This led Brent oil prices to drop to ~US$30/bbl. In April, finally Opec+ announced a deal to reduce oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). As per IEA, global oil demand could drop by ~23 mbpd in Q1FY21E amid spread of Covid-19, which meant that even if a 9.7 mbpd output cut takes place in May,...

Consequently, we prefer ICICIBC, AXSB and KMB amongst the large caps. We prefer CUBK amongst the pack of smaller regional banks. We maintain our REDUCE rating on RBK and KVB, despite their sharp underperformance. Recent events (YES and COVID-19) are likely to have multiple order and far reaching impacts on the banking sector. COVID-19 will obviously impact growth and asset quality. The events at YES have impacted depositor sentiment, causing them to become more risk-averse, we believe. Consequently, the less obvious (but equally important) impact is expected to play out on the liabilities side. In such a scenario, we believe deposit flows will become more polarised. Larger banks, with strong granular liability franchises, reasonable asset quality performance and sufficient capital are likely to emerge stronger.

Extended lockdown drives estimates/TP downgrades for FY21/22E: Despite sharp correction in retail stocks, we see few value buys as for most, price performance is reflective of reduction in earnings power, esp. in apparel. (EBITDA cuts for FY21/FY22 range from -14 to 57%/-7-30% across universe). Subsequently TP cuts across universe range from -6 to -42%. We maintain our BUY rating on V-MART & ABFRL and SELL rating on D-MART. Impact of Covid-19 and FY21 template: Retail is likely to be among the worst hit sectors by COVID-19. Revenue declines across coverage is likely to range between 3-14% in 4Q. Impact on profitability (EBITDA) will be even higher (-14% to severe losses in FY21 ex-DMART) given the high fixed cost base in biz models. In this backdrop, Assessing 1. Foregone vs recoverable revenue, 2. Inventory fungibility/quality across seasons, 3. Capital to cover fixed costs and 4. Leverage position will assume centre stage.

We continue to believe that TCS' trinity of growth-scale-durability is challenged as risks to large deal ramp-up and cut in discretionary spend have increased. While TCS' supply metrics are resilient, demand dent is overwhelming with a deeper NorthAm/BFS impact and limited exposure to higher velocity verticals. Gains arising out of vendor consolidation/market-share, pipeline conversion and new business opportunities (accelerated cloud migration, remote solution & cybersecurity) will be offset by cuts to IT budgets, we've factored 6.1/8.5% decline in FY21 Rev/PAT. Valuations at 19.4x FY22E is in-line with its 10-yr avg. We maintain REDUCE on TCS following a miss on rev and slightly better operating performance. Demand-related factors to worsen while supply constraints are expected to recover ahead. The parallels to GFC are apparent (similar trajectory expected in 1HFY21), although this will be more broad-based. TCS estimation of recovery in 3Q-4QFY21 is a steep ask in context of 1HFY21 decline, but premised on its order-book and pipeline. Our TP of Rs 1,680, is based on 19x FY22E EPS (~5% cut in EPS est).