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COVID19 IMPACT: LEDIFICATION TO GET DELAYEDFURTHER

COVID 19 IMPACT: EXPORTS TO SUFFER; FY21 TO BE VERY WEAK

NIIT Tech (NITEC) reported a strong Q4FY20 with 3% QoQ CC revenue growth and resilient operating margins.

Tech Mahindra (TECHM) posted a 4.3% QoQ dollar revenue decline and 200bps EBITDA margin contraction to round off a disappointing Q4FY20 performance.

With a long run-way of growth, improving regulatory environment, and strong innovation opportunities, we remain positive on the general insurance sector. Regulatory crack-down on motor TP pricing is key risk. Pvt. multi-line insurers Mar-20/FY20 GDPI grew -16.2/+11.7% YoY to Rs 67.1/911.8bn. Decline in Mar-20 was along expected lines as new policy sales have declined as a result of the lockdown and renewals have been impacted by the forbearance (until 15-May-20) given by IRDAI on premium payments, and extra time (until June-20) allowed for claiming deduction under the IT Act, for the purchase of health cover.

Upbeat quarter; upgrade a notch to REDUCE

Mindtree reported revenue growth of 1.9% in c/c and 1.2% in reported terms, in line with our expectations. Growth was driven by the top account which grew 8.6% sequentially. Ex-top account revenues would have declined 1.1% QoQ. Its top client added US$5.5 mn to incremental revenues offsetting US$2.3 mn decline in the rest of the firm. EBIT margin was in line with our estimates of 12.5%. Active clients have shown a decline to 307 from 320 in Q3FY20 & 343 in Q2FY20, this highlights rationalization of tail accounts. We give credit to the new management on margin expansion, but we find...

Mindtree (MTCL) reported an upbeat Q4 operating performance with 1.9% QoQ CC growth and swift margin recovery.

Recommendations and stock picks: Outlook on ordering both domestic/international ex roads is likely to be weak. Banks lending will be selective. We have downgraded ABB from ADD to SELL and Siemens from ADD to REDUCE. We have cut PSP/ITD rating from BUY to ADD. We maintain BUY ratings on other coverage stocks. For our coverage universe, we have recalibrated the P/E multiple/EPS estimates lower resulting in TP cuts by 10-60%. In cap goods, LT is our top pick. In the mid cap EPC space, KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ahluwalia are our top picks. COVID-19 poses multiple headwinds: Industrials companies have been hit hard by COVID-19 pandemic. Execution has started to pick up slowly post almost a month of lockdown. Local Govt approvals are coming slowly as the sector grapples for remobilization of sites. Urban areas are being turned into containment fortresses and it will take time for the works to resume. This will largely impact Metro and Real Estate projects execution. National Highway projects are still executable as they run through interior State districts with limited COVID-19 impact. We believe pure play NH EPC players are best placed to tide through the crisis. Buildings players are worst impacted.

Opec+ output cut deal not enough; oversupply to continue From the start of 2020, Brent oil prices have declined ~60% while WTI oil prices went below zero. In March, a disagreement between Opec and Russia regarding production cut led to a price war in the global market. This led Brent oil prices to drop to ~US$30/bbl. In April, finally Opec+ announced a deal to reduce oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). As per IEA, global oil demand could drop by ~23 mbpd in Q1FY21E amid spread of Covid-19, which meant that even if a 9.7 mbpd output cut takes place in May,...