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In our monthly Hotels update we have summarized key events of the domestic hotel industry, new hotels signing/addition by key players during the month and pricing trend of key cities for June, 2025. We have analyzed pricing of 171 hotels with ~33,000 keys across 8 cities to understand the trend over last 24 months (Exhibit 18). After a healthy growth in ADR, the industry witnessed decline in ADR, primarily led by seasonality. Early monsoons in various parts of the country further dented travel plans and weighed on ADR. We anticipate the softness in ADR to continue for a couple of more months. However, we attribute this as a seasonal factor and overall positive momentum of the industry to continue led by demand-supply mismatch,...
Building Material companies under our coverage universe are expected to report single digit revenue growth due to weak demand, along with contraction in margins due to fluctuations in PVC resin prices in plastic pipe companies and tiles, due to oversupply in the domestic market, which has leads pricing pressure. We anticipate moderate volume growth of 5.2% YoY in plastic pipe sector. Tiles and bathware sectors are likely to experience single digit growth expecting demand to pick up in H2FY26. We expect coverage companies to register sales growth of 4.3% YoY, given correction in Finolex Ind revenue and...
We prefer Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (TVS, Eicher seem fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.
hikes the improvement in margins would either be flat or negligible due to missing operating leverage. We expect median revenue growth to decline by 1.2% QoQ in CC terms & grow 0.5% QoQ in USD terms. Currency volatility continues with major currencies like EUR and GBP having strengthened against USD by 5.9% and 7.6% QoQ, respectively, which will translate into tailwinds to the tune of 60-400bps QoQ in reported terms. Vertical wise, BFSI should continue its growth momentum, while hi-tech and ENU should also support growth for selective names. Manufacturing and...
We conducted channel checks of paint dealers across regions. Our interaction suggests that 1) 1Q has seen decent demand with QoQ improvement, however recovery remains slow 2) demand outlook remains positive led by lower inflation, interest rate cuts, tax reductions and normal monsoons. Asian Paints is experiencing a year-on-year decline in the West and South regions, sales in the East remained flat while north India sales trends show mid-high single digit growth. For Kansai Nerolac, the South market is weak, whereas other regions are performing well....
Banking sector (non-food) credit growth stood at 9.6% as on 13 Jun'25 vs ~8.8% in May'25 (vs ~11% in FY25). The latest sectoral deployment data showed that credit growth moderated in agri, industry and services sectors in May'25, partly attributable to high base. Agri loans stood to 7.5% in May'25 vs 9.2% in Apr'25. Loans to industries moderated to 4.8% in May'25 vs 6.6% in Apr'25, due to slowdown in particularly large industries. Services sector growth too softened to 8.7% vs 10.5% YoY in Apr'25. Growth in loans to NBFCs declined to -0.3% YoY in May'25 vs +2.9% YoY in Apr'25. However, loan to retail segment slightly moderated...
Dealers expect prices to decline further in Jul'25 as the monsoon picks up. However, prices remain strong compared to FY25 and YoY prices are up significantly in Southern & Eastern regions. We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess the demand and pricing scenario in Jun'25. Our discussions indicate a mixed demand environment across markets. While heatwaves continued to impact...
Total Card Spends improved during May'25 (stood at Rs 1.90L Cr Vs Rs.1.85L Cr in Apr'25). Credit Card spends increased by ~3% MoM (v/s -8.6% in Apr'25), while it grew ~15% YoY vs ~18% in Apr'25. Total number of cards in force stood at ~111.2Mn as of May'25 (up by ~8% YoY and ~0.7% MoM). Net New Cards additions stood at ~7.6 lakhs (vs 5.5 lakhs in Apr'25), indicating an improved sentiment among lenders towards unsecured loan. New card issuances were majorly led by HDFCB (~2.8 lakhs), SBI (~1.3 lakhs), and AXIS (~1.1 lakh). Volume of transaction increased by ~4% MoM (vs. -2% in Apr'25), whereas it grew by ~29.7 % YoY (vs ~30.7% in Apr'25). We expect card spends to...
since Apr'25. We could see a credit upcycle from FY27E suggesting higher than expected loan growth. Sensitivity analysis indicates that if loan growth for FY27E is 210bps higher at 14.7% YoY, aggregate core PAT would be upgraded by 3.6%; sector would re-rate and multiples/TP could increase by 5.0-11.0%. However, in a credit upcycle, valuation discount of other banks to sector leaders like ICICB/HDFCB (6-7% upgrade) would narrow suggesting higher upgrades. From an alpha generation perspective, we would prefer players like...
