Sector Updates

Top Conviction Ideas - Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices decreased by 0.6% WoW to Rs 47,000/tonne, amid weak demand, liquidity constraints and absence of workable prices in the distribution chain. Zinc: Zinc prices remained flat WoW at $3,209/tonne, however the LME...

Top Conviction Ideas - Metals & Mining

In October, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to a record low of 0.25%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation eased to -1.2%. The decline in retail inflation was driven by record-low food prices and the recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts.

Moody’s Ratings expects India’s economy to grow at 6.5% by 2027. The agency attributes the growth outlook to strong infrastructure investment and healthy consumption. Private-sector capital expenditure is still cautious and muted.

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices decreased by 0.6% WoW to Rs 47,000/tonne, amid weak demand, liquidity constraints and absence of workable prices in the distribution chain. Zinc: Zinc prices remained flat WoW at $3,209/tonne, however the LME...

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices increased by 0.6% WoW to Rs 47,300/tonne, rebounded after an 11-week downtrend, supported by mill-led price revisions amid rising raw material costs, improved export...

The month of October saw volatile chemical prices on a monthly basis with pockets of movement such as Heavy Soda Ash which declined by 7% MoM. The refrigerant gases index was up by 8% MoM, with R410a reporting the highest price rise of 11%. This was visible in the results of our coverage companies, NFIL and SRF, which posted not just strong results but also indicate a strong positive...

During Oct-25, Indian steel prices fell 3% MoM to Rs47,000/tonne, while Chinese steel prices declined by 2% MoM to $460/tonne as rising domestic inventories, indicating supply outpacing demand. Coking coal prices increased 6% MoM to $174/tonne, supported by stronger Chinese buying interest. In Sep-25, Indian steel production declined by 3.5% MoM to 13.6 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output fell by 5% MoM to 74 mn tonnes, in-line with Chinese anti-involution policy and mill production cut due to negative margins. Global steel production also contracted 2% MoM to 142 mn tonnes. Furthermore, Chinese steel exports increased by 10% MoM and...

In our monthly Hotels update we have summarized key events of the domestic hotel industry, new hotels signing/addition by key players during the month and pricing trend of key cities for October, 2025. We have analyzed pricing of 171 hotels with ~33,000 keys across 8 cities to understand the trend over last 24 months (Exhibit 1-8). The industry witnessed yet another month of improved ADR aided by festive season. Despite prolonged rainfall in many states, domestic travel picked up during festive season. We anticipate the uptrend in ADR to continue for upcoming months as wedding season will kick start post Diwali. We remain positive on domestic hospitality space led...

We prefer TVS Motors, Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.

India's automotive OEMs posted record-high volume prints for October 2025, driven by robust festive season demand and amplified by the GST 2.0 reforms which lowered vehicle prices and boosted consumer sentiment. OEM wholesale sales volume for October 2025 came in healthy with PV & tractor segment outperforming peers. CV space reported healthy volume prints for the month of October 2025 with recovery visible across M&HCV as well as LCV segment. M&M set the bar high, outperforming in both PV & Tractor segment, while Royal Enfield (Eicher motors) lead the growth...

In September, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to an eight-year low of 1.5%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation eased to 0.1%. The decline in retail inflation was driven by a favourable base effect and lower food prices.

ICICI Bank notes that while softer inflation is expected, the Monetary Policy Committee’s rate decisions will hinge on growth. If growth weakens, the MPC may act to support it. Gaura Sengupta of IDFC First Bank adds that rate cuts will be considered only with sustained tariff pressures or weak consumption despite GST cuts.

Our Top Earnings Plays in the sector: JSW Energy and Genus Power.

Our Top Earnings Plays: Max Healthcare, Lupin, and Fortis.

Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices decreased by 1.9% WoW to Rs 35,800/tonne, amid weak market sentiments owing to muted downstream demand and falling finished steel prices leading to need based procurement by steel producers. Chinese HRC: Chinese HRC prices decreased by 3.1% WoW to Rs 41,703/tonne, due to weak demand, further driven by...