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In September, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to an eight-year low of 1.5%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation eased to 0.1%. The decline in retail inflation was driven by a favourable base effect and lower food prices.
ICICI Bank notes that while softer inflation is expected, the Monetary Policy Committee’s rate decisions will hinge on growth. If growth weakens, the MPC may act to support it. Gaura Sengupta of IDFC First Bank adds that rate cuts will be considered only with sustained tariff pressures or weak consumption despite GST cuts.
Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices decreased by 1.9% WoW to Rs 35,800/tonne, amid weak market sentiments owing to muted downstream demand and falling finished steel prices leading to need based procurement by steel producers. Chinese HRC: Chinese HRC prices decreased by 3.1% WoW to Rs 41,703/tonne, due to weak demand, further driven by...
Positive Result Plays: Banks ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Ujjivan SFB NBFCs Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Aptus Value Housing Negative Result Plays: Equitas SFB, Bandhan Bank, Manappuram
India’s auto sales in September 2025 exhibited a strong upward trend, fueled by festive season momentum and the implementation of GST 2.0 reforms, which reduced tax burdens and stimulated consumer demand.
Although Maruti’s Sep’25 sales reflected a modest overall recovery, but domestic challenges persisted. Growth in exports and compact segment offered some cushion, but continued weakness in SUVs and entry-level cars poses challenges, making the oncoming festive season and new launches critical for a volume and margin recovery.
The month of September saw chemical prices stay range bound on a monthly basis. From our tracking universe, Caustic Soda Lye registered the highest price spurt of 9% MoM exhibiting a good recovery post a 4% decline in August 2025. This has been on account of some volume improvement in key industries such as aluminium, paper and detergent industries. The global caustic soda market has also exhibited considerable shortage predominantly driven by reduced demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) due to a slowdown in construction activity. Heavy soda ash was down 14% MoM last month and was down 13% again MoM...
We prefer TVS Motors, Hero Motocorp, and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.
As the festive season commenced along with anticipated GST rate cuts, OEM wholesale volume for September 2025 came in healthy. Notably, exports continue to stage a healthy growth on YoY basis for most of the OEMs. CV space reported healthy volume prints for the month of September 2025 with green shoots of recovery visible in the LCV segment. Tata motors set the bar high, outperforming in both PV & CV segment, while Royal Enfield (Eicher motors) lead the growth charge in the 2W domain. M&M continues to decisively dominate the tractor segment....
In our monthly Hotels update we have summarized key events of the domestic hotel industry, new hotels signing/addition by key players during the month and pricing trend of key cities for September, 2025. We have analyzed pricing of 171 hotels with ~33,000 keys across 8 cities to understand the trend over last 24 months (Exhibit 1-8). The industry witnessed yet another month of improved ADR. Though it is a seasonal phenomenon of firming up ADRs on the onset of festive, we anticipate better than expected ADR growth, primarily supported by domestic travel boost and wedding season. The ADR growth was impressive on lower price bracket in select markets...
During Sep-25, Indian steel prices fell 2% MoM to Rs48,500/tonne, while Chinese steel prices declined by 6% MoM to $470/tonne impacted by seasonal demand weakness and changes in export tax regulations that led to front-loading by exporters. Coking coal prices increased 6% MoM to $164/tonne, driven by supplyside disruptions amid the monsoon. In Aug-25, Indian steel production rose by 0.7% MoM to 14.1 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output declined by 3% MoM to 77 mn tonnes amid government-mandated environmental sanctions and sluggish domestic demand, while global steel production contracted by 3% MoM to 145 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports decreased by 3% MoM and were flat YoY to 9.5 mn tonnes, as...
At present, we continue to prefer banks with promising growth prospects, healthy deposit franchises, stable asset quality metrics, and strong and steady management teams.
The RBI MPC maintained the policy repo rate at 5.5% and reiterated its neutral stance, as most of the domestic high frequency indicators suggest that economic activity continued to remain resilient, despite global tariff-related uncertainties.
Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices decreased by 0.8% WoW to Rs 48,700/tonne, amid limited purchases as buyers resort to need-based buying due to the slowdown from festive holidays and post-GST cuts traders are still gauging their effect on pricing and demand. Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices decreased by 1.1% WoW to Rs 36,500/tonne, as buying activity remains weak, weighed down by...
