Sector Updates

In Q1FY26, Nestle India reported revenue largely in-line with our expectations, but earnings missed our estimates led by poor operational performance, lower other income and elevated depreciation and interest expenses.

Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices decreased by 1.4% WoW to Rs 48,500/tonne, amid significant slowdown in demand due to seasonal factors and an influx of cheaper steel imports. Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices increased by 3.6% WoW to Rs 37,850/tonne, driven by revival in buying in sponge iron and finished...

Total Card Spends decreased during Jun'25 (stood at Rs 1.83L Cr Vs Rs.1.90L Cr in May'25). Credit Card spends decreased by ~3.6% MoM (v/s Increased ~3% in Apr'25), while it grew ~15% YoY vs ~15% in May'25. Total number of cards in force stood at ~111.2Mn as of May'25 (up by ~7% YoY and ~0% MoM). Net New Cards additions in the month were almost Nil; it is flat on MoM basis (vs 7.6 lakhs in May'25), indicating a cautious or subdued sentiment among lenders towards unsecured loans. New card issuances were majorly led by HDFCB (~2.1 lakhs), SBI (~0.8 lakhs), and Yes Bank (~1 lakh). Volume of transactions decreased by ~2% MoM (vs. up by ~4% in Apr'25),...

companies (NOCs) dominate the global refining sector with 54% market share. Global demand for petroleum products is fading with call on refined products almost flat at 85.9mnbopd in 2030 vs 85.6mnbopd in 2024. This situation would normally call for capacity rationalization. However, the rush to secure domestic availability is expected to lead to expansion of global capacity by 2.6mnbopd through 2030, net of closures of 1.6mnbopd. Almost all of the...

Iron Ore Odisha: Iron ore prices increased by 1.4% WoW to Rs 7,250/tonne, as strong demand was registered in the OMC auction for lumps owing to the material shortage due to heavy rainfall in the region....

In June, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.1%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation fell to a 20-month low into the negative zone, at -0.1%. The sequential drop in CPI inflation was mainly driven by price drops in key food categories such as vegetables, pulses, meat & fish, cereals, sugar, milk, and spices.

ICICI Securities highlights that rural demand is outperforming urban demand. The brokerage expects overall consumption growth to remain robust, primarily because rural consumption, a larger component of the total consumption, is now recovering after being significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years.

In Q1FY26E, the Indian cement sector witnessed a strong sequential recovery in pricing, particularly in the southern and eastern markets, following an extended period of margin compression and weak realizations.

Consumption trends in Q1FY26E remained uneven, with rural markets continuing to outperform urban counterparts. Improved monsoon sentiment and widespread distribution of government-sponsored benefits supported rural demand, which remained resilient across staples and personal care categories.

Billet-Ex-Raipur: Billet prices remained flat WoW at Rs 36,800/tonne, amid muted demand in finished steel segment. Chinese HRC: Chinese HRC prices increased by 1.1% WoW to Rs 38,714/tonne, driven by speculations over significant property stimulus...

India’s life insurance industry saw a decrease in new business premiums in June 2025, with total collections decreasing 3.1% YoY to INR 4,11,171 Mn, compared to INR 4,24,337
Mn in June 2024. The Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) reported a 14.7% YoY decrease in number of policies sold. The decline reflects industry-wide challenges, including
regulatory changes, economic conditions, and shifting consumer preferences. Insurers are focusing on expanding distribution channels and introducing new products.

During Jun-25, Indian steel prices declined 1.4% MoM to Rs50,700/tonne, while Chinese steel prices fell by 2.2% MoM to $445/tonne. Coking coal prices dropped by 8.1% MoM to $136/tonne, amid subdued global demand. In May-25, Indian steel production rose by 4.7% MoM to 13.5 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output increased by 0.7% MoM to 87 mn tonnes, while global steel production expanded by 1.5% MoM to 158 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports increased by 1.1% MoM and 9.9% YoY to 10.6mn tonnes, as Chinese domestic demand continues to struggle. Additionally, the USA announced a 50% tariff on steel,...

EPC companies, due to general elections held in Q1FY25, 2) recent geopolitical incidents leading to better performance out of defence companies, 3) strong domestic traction for product companies, and 4) strong YoY growth seen in the public capex for railways, defence, power, road transport and highways etc. in Q1FY26. The strong performance is anticipated despite cautious exports and tariff related uncertainties along with continued weakness in the consumable companies. Overall, we expect revenue/EBITDA growth of ~15.1%/15.5% YoY (~15.3%/14.9% YoY ex-L&T). Execution pace, domestic capex momentum and...

terror attack. However, the sector's pricing power remained resilient, with panIndia ARRs holding firm in the Rs7,3007,500 range, reflecting inherent pricing power. The aviation sector also witnessed a notable slowdown in traffic growth, with May-25 recording just 1.9% YoY pax growth, lowest in recent quarters, reaching 14.1mn passengers. As for the luggage sector, while it was relatively less affected by geopolitical developments, the overall environment remained challenging and competitive intensity continues to persist. Within our hospitality coverage universe, we expect RevPAR growth of 2%/16%/15% for CHALET IN, LEMONTRE IN and SAMHI IN respectively. As for INDIGO IN, we...

QoQ/10.0% YoY. Disbursal run-rate of LICHF/CANF is a key monitorable, given weak credit flow in the last few quarters. NIM for coverage HFCs could fall by 3bps QoQ to 3.13%. NII may remain flat QoQ and grow by 9.0% YoY to Rs27.8bn due to faster repricing of loans. Other income could reduce by 44.3% QoQ to Rs1.6bn owing to seasonality which would be partly offset by 20.2% moderation in opex to Rs5.56bn mainly led by fall in other opex (-28.2% QoQ). Hence, PPoP could be flat QoQ at Rs23.9bn. We see provisions inching up QoQ to 19bps from 15bps as Q1 sees slower...

service EBITDA margin of PTL division is likely to be at 10% (mirroring the performance of 4QFY25) versus 3.2% in 1QFY25. Even MAHLOG IN's operational performance is likely to be healthy led by EBITDA growth of 12.2% in standalone business and narrowing losses in the B2B express division....

Deo, Instant Noodles, Juices, oral care and mass skin care remains intense. seasonally important quarter partly disrupted by unseasonal rains and operation Sindoor. Food and grocery retail continue to remain highly...

12.0% due to higher A&P spends (new logo was unveiled in June-25). Entertainment: While headwinds in Kiddopia and Nodwin businesses persist, consolidation of Curve Games, Freaks 4U and Fusebox is likely to support the...

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Real Estate

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Automobile