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The US-Israel-Iran war has made the Strait of Hormuz a narrow sea passage in the Persian Gulf too dangerous for normal commercial shipping. About ~20% of the world's entire oil and gas supply passes through this strait every single day. When it becomes unsafe, that supply disappearsfrom global markets almost immediately.
Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices increased by 2.4% WoW to Rs 56,300/tonne, as steel mills announce price hikes amid rising energy and freight costs due to the Iran - Israel war. Material availability...
Z IN has started dominating Hindi and Marathi charts Since 1QFY22, Z IN's viewership share has remained rangebound between ~16-18%. Performance in certain markets like Hindi, Marathi and Tamil has been relatively weak weighing down the overall network share....
In February, CPI inflation rose 3.2%, from 2.8% last month. WPI inflation increased for the third straight month to 2.1%.
Nomura has slightly lowered its FY27 GDP growth forecast for India to 7%, citing the ongoing conflict in West Asia as a key risk factor. The brokerage noted that prolonged tensions in the region could challenge the current “goldilocks” environment of strong economic growth combined with stable inflation. Despite this, Nomura still expects India’s cyclical economic recovery to continue, supported by earlier policy easing, structural reforms, rising wage growth, and easing trade tensions with the US.
Refined product market crisis to be more severe than crude US-China meeting to be a key monitorable We hosted a webinar with oil market expert Mukesh Sahdev, founder, CEO, Chief Oil Analyst of Xanalyst, Ex-Rystad and Ex-Shell, having more than 30 years of experience across the oil value chain. The discussion focused on the ongoing crisis in the global oil and gas market. The disruption is expected to create an estimated ~10 mb/d supply gap by April 1, 2026, with the shortage more pronounced in refined products than crude oil. Several major Middle Eastern refineries have reportedly been damaged,...
Industry group APE grew 26.1% YoY led by LIC (+37.0% YoY) while covered companies saw a surge in volume. FY26 VNB margins are expected to be range-bound due to...
The month of February and Mid-March saw an uptrend in chemical prices with all except Acrylic Acid and Maleic Anhydride registering a de-growth of 1% and 2% respectively. The Ref Gas prices regressed slightly as the Ref-Gas Index declined by about 1% MoM. The elevated ref-gas prices are expected to have a positive effect on the results of our coverage companies, NFIL and SRF, which...
Geopolitics is once again taking a center stage for the global aluminum market with closure of Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing middle east crisis. Supplies of LNG are getting disrupted leading to force majeure announcements from various smelters. If the situation persists, it is expected to increase the global aluminum deficit and lead to higher aluminum prices at 1HFY27 as global...
significant share of exports, is witnessing heightened operational stress. In Q3FY26, Gujarat Gas volumes in Morbi declined sharply by ~50% YoY to ~1.7 mmscmd (vs. 3.4 mmscmd YoY and 2.1 mmscmd QoQ), signaling a meaningful slowdown in production activity. Additionally, lower propane prices (Rs 3/SCM...
The disruptions in one of the richest commercial hubs during 10th-17th century- The Strait of Hormuz, controlling 14-15mnbopd of crude oil transit, 1mnbopd of LPG and 2mnbopd of middle distillates currently, has kept global equity markets under stress for the past few days. Ongoing US/Isreal-Iran war engulfing the whole of Middle East, has sent Brent surging from USD63.6/bbl in Q3FY26 to USD84/bbl currently. Attacks on regional refineries has sent diesel cracks surging from USD22.6/bbl in Q3FY26 to USD55/bbl currently. Similarly, petrol crack spread has also jumped from USD13/bbl in Q3FY26 to USD18/bbl currently. How long will these continue, only time will tell. However, if history is to be believed, the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed for an elongated period of time. We delve into instances of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since 2000. Largely, two instances have been there, one in 2011-12 and the other in 2019....
During Feb-26, Indian steel prices increased by 1% MoM to Rs54,000/tonne, remaining at a 52-week-high on seasonal tailwinds. Chinese steel prices declined by 1% MoM to $465/tonne, owing to the increase in production amid weak demand. Coking coal prices decreased by 13% MoM to $186/tonne, as operations normalized following weather disruptions. In Jan-25, Indian steel production increased by 2.0% MoM to 15.1 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output rose 10% MoM to 75mn tonnes as mills resumed operations after maintenance shutdown. CISA mills also reported a 20% YoY increase in inventory levels, indicating weak demand during festive holidays. Global...
Demand for 2Ws remains robust aided by improved affordability Strong momentum in dispatches continued in Feb'26 ahead of festivities, amid ongoing wedding season and positive rural sentiments from robust crop cashflows, with sharper customer engagement and shift toward higher value models. PV growth is being driven by non-metro locations, although small car sales are seeing slower growth. Jan'26 inventory level of 32-34days vs. 3739days in Dec'25 indicate healthier channel discipline and efficient working capital. 2Ws remain strong with urban revival, although 350cc+ models see stagnation in volumes. CVs are on an upward trajectory from steady freight...
In our monthly Hotels update we have summarized key events of the domestic hotel industry, new hotels signing/addition by key players during the month and pricing trend of key cities in February, 2026. We have analyzed pricing of 171 hotels with ~33,000 keys across 8 cities to understand the trend over last 24 months (Exhibit 1-8). After a good start on ADR front last month, this month reported improved ADR in the selected markets. Apart from planned events (AI Summit in Delhi), overall demand has been encouraging across the key markets. Post Q3FY26 results, the management commentary has been positive on the industry growth, primarily supported by healthy...
We prefer TVS Motors and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.
Dealers expect prices to improve meaningfully from April onwards, as yearend volume push eases, while demand is expected to remain healthy. We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess demand and pricing trends in Feb'26. Our discussions indicate that demand remained healthy across most markets, with steady offtake supported by infrastructure activities and seasonal construction momentum, though some regions witnessed temporary slowdown due to Holi and year-end adjustments. Pricing trends were mixed MoM, as aggressive volume push ahead of March closing led to price corrections in select North and South markets, while East and West...
