Downgrades

Maruti Suzuki’s Q4 standalone EBITDA declined 9% y/y to Rs42.6bn, below our estimated Rs49.3bn. Domestic volumes would clock a 5% CAGR over FY25-27 due to higher income levels (income-tax cuts), a rebound in first-time buyers, rural demand, launches and lower finance costs.

Dr Lal PathLabs’ (Dr Lal) Q4FY25 results were slightly better than our expectation. Outperformance was driven by higher sample volumes (up 9.5% YoY) and realisation improvement.

We visited Gabriel’s plant and attended its management meet on Thursday in Pune. The company’s change in strategy by way of entry into the high-growth ‘sunroof’ product line is positive and would be a major value driver.

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)’s 4QFY25 margin came in 110bp below our estimate at 10.5%, largely due to the lumpy nature of multiple costs that affected its performance.

The revenue growth performance (+2.9% QoQ CC) exceeded our estimates (+2.5% QoQ CC). ~80% of its portfolio mix maintained a steady state, while the rest of its business mix (L&T and Others) reported a decline of 8% and 3% QoQ, respectively. The continued improvement in large deal wins (13 large deals in FY25) and meaningful conversion of those deals are supporting the growth within BFSI. Despite having booked record high deal TCV of USD390m (11% QoQ), the deal funnel still looks encouraging (26% QoQ and 86% YoY). Even...

Nescafe, Milkmaid, Masala-Ae-Magic, Petcare reported double-digit growth while KitKat reported high-single digit growth NESTLE saw a decent quarter with margin beat as calibrated price hikes neutralized the impact of high inflation in coffee and cocoa. Although demand remains weak, there seems QoQ improvement across segments. Although we expect gradual pick up in volume growth, high input cost inflation in coffee &...

Deal wins remain robust at USD 798 mn in Q4 The performance on the topline (-1.5% CC QoQ) was below our estimates (+0.3% CC QoQ), while the execution on margins was strong, exceeding our expectations by 30bps QoQ. The decline in revenue was led by unanticipated delays in renewals within Hi-Tech, which partly supported by strong momentum in BFSI (+2.5% QoQ). The management demonstrated one-year milestone of stabilizing growth and scaling profitability, while showcasing the additional efforts that need to be put in FY26 to achieve the FY27 goal. The...

We cut FY26/FY27EPS by 3.1/3% factoring in 80/50bps cut in margins to 22.7/23.3% in FY26/27 as HUVR transitions through the inflationary phase and invests in Innovation, new products, A&P, distribution channel etc. to push for growth as it expects demand recovery to set in. HUL continues to focus on transforming its portfolio contribution from Core to Future Core & Market Mover. HUVR is making a big push in premium segments in Beauty and wellbeing to regain lost ground by acquisitions and new launches, which should start showing impact by end of 1H26. HFD turnaround seems tough given...

AXSB saw a decent quarter due to better deposit growth at 7.0% QoQ (PLe 3.0%) and higher fees (8.7% beat). Adjusted for (1) PSLC income of Rs1.7bn (2) PSLC cost of Rs5.9bn and (3) provision write-back of Rs8.0bn in SR, core PAT beat PLe by 5.0% to Rs65.8bn. Since higher LDR was a constraint to healthy loan growth, balance sheet has been repaired as LDR declined QoQ to 88.7% from 92.6% in Q3FY25. While asset quality was better owing to lower net slippages, provisions adjusted SR write-back, remained elevated at 86bps (PLe...

Tech Mahindra’s (TechM’s) reported revenue stood at $1,549 million, down 1.5% q-o-q in CC terms, missing our estimate of 0.6% q-o-q decline in CC terms, driven by weakness in Hi-Tech, Healthcare & Lifesciences, Retail and Others.