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We estimate the company to post Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 10%/12%/12% CAGR over FY23-26E and maintain a BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged TP of Rs 540/share. We value the company at 27x June-25 EPS. The TP implies an upside of 20% from the CMP.
Adjusted revenue growth was soft at 3% YoY, primarily led by volume growth while price growth remained flat. Rural (-1% 2Y CAGR volume) continues to underperform urban (at 3%). Home care revenue performance has subsided (vs last few quarters) to ~3% YoY value growth (~5% volume growth). Revenue growth in BPC and Food also remained soft at ~4% YoY each.
The theme for Dabur's analyst meet was ‘portfolio enhancement’. It provided a strategy to redefine core for younger India (stronger scientific claims, new-age formats, aspirational packaging) while boosting the total addressable market (TAM) by expanding into adjacencies through power platforms.