Downgrades

NHPC has reported a steady result in Q4FY25 – standalone revenue grew 15% YoY to INR 21bn, EBITDA grew 4% YoY to INR 9.4bn while adjusted PAT, at INR 8bn, grew 14% YoY.

Black & White

AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power.

Black & White

NHPC has reported a subdued result in Q3FY25 – standalone revenue slipped 15% YoY to INR 15bn, EBITDA shrunk 14% YoY to INR 4.3bn while reported PAT, at INR 2.7bn, tumbled 50% YoY impacted by two one-offs.

The grass is greener here

NHPC’s reported standalone PAT for Q2FY23 was up 9.8% YoY to Rs14.3bn. However, adjusted for one-offs, it was up 0.5% YoY to Rs13.1bn.

INR6.8b) due to Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to the shutdown of 2 Chamera units and lower water availability. NHPC is also planning to complete the linkage of work by Oct20, thereby increasing discharge of water for Parbati-II. NHPC expects to receive INR18b from the PFC-REC scheme on completion of certain formalities for J&K.; Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term. Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to shutdown of two Chamera units and lower water availability. Moreover, commissioning for the project is still some time away (FY24 Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term.

INR12.4b) on the back of resumed income recognition for its Subansiri project (since 1QFY20). Construction on NHPCs Lower Subansiri (2,000MW) project has restarted from Oct19. NHPC expects the project to be completed by 2QFY24. Company expects the project to be commissioned in FY22 (unchanged). Capex run- rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/ exploring new projects. in prior quarter numbers Management has noted that work on Subansiri project has resumed and the project is expected to be completed by 2QFY24. The tender for Power house is yet to be awarded and company is in the process The project requires a tunnel of 31km, of this, 2.5km is yet to be completed and NHPC expects the project to be commissioned in FY22. Company expects the project to be completed in 5 years time.

Earnings growth muted, capex run-rate increasing; Maintain Neutral Standalone (S/A) adj. PAT of INR36m in 4QFY19 was below our estimate of INR1.6b due to higher-than-expected operating cost. This also implies a sharp fall from INR1.9b in 4QFY18, particularly because the company no longer capitalizes expenses (as part of regulatory deferral account) for the Lower Subhansiri power...

6 September 2018 NHPCs consolidated PAT declined ~17% YoY to INR25b in FY18. It was impacted periods revenue reversal at Parbati-III U-IV plant; (b) lower other income due to lower treasury and lower late-payment surcharge income; and (c) lower Stripping out the other income, prior-period items, one-offs and shutdown impact, the standalone (S/A) generation PAT grew by a healthy 19% YoY (Exhibit 1) even as regulated equity remained unchanged. Core (i.e. generation business) RoE on regulated equity increased ~200bp YoY to ~15%. We calculate O&M; under-recovery reduced on lower cost (Exhibit 2) and with a normative annual increase in O&M; allowance. Standalone (S/A) debtor days continue to improve, down to 67 days in FY18 from 75 days in FY17, and with a peak of 141 days in FY13, releasing INR5.8b. But INR5.4b payment to a contractor under arbitration offset this benefit. Cash capex was INR15.3b while the rest was allocation of cost through P&L;.

NHPC achieved CoD of 330MW Kishanganga project in April'18, but Parbati II (4x200MW) capacity is now expected to be commercialized only by FY21E-22E. Final report on Subansiri by MoEF has been kept reserved as the NGT is yet to decide whether the project is to be appraised through the current committee or form a new committee. We have cut our earnings estimates by 8.6%/14.9% for FY19E/20E to factor in delay in the commercialization of Parbati II project. Accordingly, we cut our SOTP-based Target Price (TP) to Rs31 v/s Rs34.6 earlier. We...

The under-recovery in O&M cost is more than INR5.5b. It would decline to less than INR2b when the O&M norms are reset in the next tariff regulations in FY20. The decline in under-recoveries will also be aided by reduction in number of employees (count has reduced from ~8,000 in FY17 to ~7,500 in FY18 and will decline to ~6,500). The revenue under-recovery of INR1.5b- 2b per year on four projects due to over-run in capital cost, which is pending approval, is also likely to be recovered by FY20. Of the four projects, three are in the first review stage of CEA, while one is in the second review stage of PIB. The final stage is approval by CCEA

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research While generation increased 2% YoY in Q4FY16 to 300.9 crore units, tariff realisation also increased 7% YoY to | 5.3/Kwhr, above I-direct...