NHPC has reported a subdued result in Q3FY25 – standalone revenue slipped 15% YoY to INR 15bn, EBITDA shrunk 14% YoY to INR 4.3bn while reported PAT, at INR 2.7bn, tumbled 50% YoY impacted by two one-offs.

NHPC’s reported standalone PAT for Q2FY23 was up 9.8% YoY to Rs14.3bn. However, adjusted for one-offs, it was up 0.5% YoY to Rs13.1bn.

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NHPC's results highlight the benefit of cost approval for its TLDP-IV project, resulting in the doubling of profits on a YoY basis. Adjusted for one-offs, S/A PAT declined 9% YoY to INR3.7b on lower generation. The capex run-rate is expected to increase on account of investments in new projects. However, their commissioning remains 45 years away ...

Capex run-rate is expected to increase on account of investment in new projects. However, their commissioning remains 4-5 years away, implying FCF/RoEs dragging in the near term. Maintain Neutral with TP of INR23. Profits in line as lower other income offsets modest generation growth NHPC's S/A PAT declined 3% YoY to INR13.0b (v/s est. INR13.3b) on account of lower other income. Other income was down 15% YoY to INR4.3b. Generation was up 4% YoY to 9.4BU in 2QFY21 based on data available at...

INR6.8b) due to Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to the shutdown of 2 Chamera units and lower water availability. NHPC is also planning to complete the linkage of work by Oct20, thereby increasing discharge of water for Parbati-II. NHPC expects to receive INR18b from the PFC-REC scheme on completion of certain formalities for J&K.; Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term. Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to shutdown of two Chamera units and lower water availability. Moreover, commissioning for the project is still some time away (FY24 Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term.

NHPCs results highlight the benefit of higher generation and the low base of the previous year. Capex run-rate is expected to increase on account of investment in new projects. However, their commissioning remains 4-5 years away, implying NHPCs standalone PAT more than doubled YoY to INR4.0b (from INR1.8b in 3QFY19; in line with our estimate of INR4.0b) off a low base. The previous year included the impact of regularization of pay scales (INR1.9b). noted while Dibang is still in the initial stages, capex would be required for providing access to the site such NHPC highlighted the current quarter also included provisioning of INR0.6b for PRP given incremental profits. Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing /exploring new projects which will reduce FCF and drag RoE over the near term. Capex guidance for NHPC noted the current quarter was impacted by INR0.6b on account of.

INR12.4b) on the back of resumed income recognition for its Subansiri project (since 1QFY20). Construction on NHPCs Lower Subansiri (2,000MW) project has restarted from Oct19. NHPC expects the project to be completed by 2QFY24. Company expects the project to be commissioned in FY22 (unchanged). Capex run- rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/ exploring new projects. in prior quarter numbers Management has noted that work on Subansiri project has resumed and the project is expected to be completed by 2QFY24. The tender for Power house is yet to be awarded and company is in the process The project requires a tunnel of 31km, of this, 2.5km is yet to be completed and NHPC expects the project to be commissioned in FY22. Company expects the project to be completed in 5 years time.

The NGT has given a favorable order for the Lower Subansiri (2,000MW) project clearing the last legal hurdle for re-starting the project. According to the management, local people have been supportive of the various CSR initiatives undertaken by the company over the years. It expects to restart fullscale construction after the monsoon season. With clarity on the project, it has resumed capitalizing expenses (stopped w.e.f. 2QFY19) on the project....

Earnings growth muted, capex run-rate increasing; Maintain Neutral Standalone (S/A) adj. PAT of INR36m in 4QFY19 was below our estimate of INR1.6b due to higher-than-expected operating cost. This also implies a sharp fall from INR1.9b in 4QFY18, particularly because the company no longer capitalizes expenses (as part of regulatory deferral account) for the Lower Subhansiri power...

NHPC achieved CoD of 330MW Kishanganga project in April'18, but Parbati II (4x200MW) capacity is now expected to be commercialized only by FY21E-22E. Final report on Subansiri by MoEF has been kept reserved as the NGT is yet to decide whether the project is to be appraised through the current committee or form a new committee. We have cut our earnings estimates by 8.6%/14.9% for FY19E/20E to factor in delay in the commercialization of Parbati II project. Accordingly, we cut our SOTP-based Target Price (TP) to Rs31 v/s Rs34.6 earlier. We...

For Q4FY17, PAT came in at Rs1.7bn which was significantly below our and consensus expectation of Rs3.9bn. This was primarily due to poor hydrology, leading to low rainfall and higher share of Secondary energy sale on YoY basis, resulting in low realisation....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NHPC reported Q4FY17 results, which were below our estimates on all counts. Lower revenues and higher employee expenses (gratuity provisions) marred profitability Revenues came in at | 1362.4 crore, down 16.7% YoY, below our estimate of | 1786.7 crore. During FY17, NHPC commissioned two units of TLDP-IV project worth 80 MW, 50 MW wind power project Absolute EBITDA was at | 223 crore vs. estimate of | 907 crore. This...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NHPC reported its Q3FY17 results, which were in line with our estimates barring PAT, which was optically below estimates on account of a higher effective tax rate. The company also announced a buyback of 81.13 crore shares at a maximum price of | 32.25/share, which would lead to maximum outflow of | 2616 crore Revenues came in at | 1308 crore, down 10.6% YoY, a tad higher than I-direct estimate of | 1287 crore. Generation is expected to be...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Reported revenues came in at | 2403.4 crore vs. our estimate of | 2504.9 crore. Generation was up 1.9% YoY at 849 crore units on account of 2x44 MW TLDP IV added in Q2FY17. However, provisional tariff for units commissioned was lower (tariff allowed as per initial DPR). Hence, revenues from sale of power were at | 2351.7 crore vs. our estimate of | 2494.5 crore. In Q2FY17, the company put two units of TLDP IV project (88 MW) on commercial operation...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Net sales were at | 2196.7 crore as per new Ind AS. Reported numbers include write-back of advance against depreciation the quantum of which has not been mentioned in result release. Generation as reported by CEA declined 3.7% to 744.6 crore units, below our estimate of 2.9% decline at 760.1 crore units. Sales were higher as tariff order was finalised for eight projects during Q1FY17, resulting in higher tariff of | 3.05/unit vs. our estimate of | 2.65/unit...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research While generation increased 2% YoY in Q4FY16 to 300.9 crore units, tariff realisation also increased 7% YoY to | 5.3/Kwhr, above I-direct...